Russell Wilson benched by Broncos for Jarrett Stidham, explained with offseason ramifications

With two games remaining in the 2023 NFL regular season, the Denver Broncos still have a narrow path to the playoffs. They will need to win their final two games, against the Los Angeles Chargers and the Las Vegas Raiders, and need a little help to get into the postseason. A tall task to be sure, but plausible.

However, they’ll now be riding with Jarrett Stidham, and not Russell Wilson.

In a rather surprising move, head coach Sean Payton has made the decision to bench Wilson for the final two games of the season, and informed the team on Wednesday that Stidham will be starting in his place. Early in the day on Wednesday Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network reported that the team was considering such a change, and that move was later confirmed by ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

There are certainly layers to this decision. The Denver offense has struggled in recent weeks, and Wilson’s play has been inconsistent to say the least. There have been some good games, such as a three-touchdown performance in a win over the Kansas City Chiefs back in October and a two-touchdown performance in their stunning upset of the Buffalo Bills in November.

However, those highs have also been met with some brutal lows this year. Wilson threw three interceptions in a loss to the Houston Texans a few weeks ago, a game which put a big dent in their playoff hopes. Then on Christmas Eve, Wilson seemed extremely unsettled in the pocket against the New England Patriots. While he threw a pair of touchdown passes, he was sacked five times and was very quick to pull the football down in the pocket, as you can see on this example:

Payton may have reason to believe that the offense will be more efficient, and more consistent, with Stidham at the helm.

There is of course a financial angle to this. A season ago Stidham took over as the starting quarterback for the Raiders down the stretch, as Las Vegas sent Derek Carr to the bench, as the veteran quarterback had a $33 million injury guarantee looming.

The financial picture with Wilson is complicated to say the least, as outlined by our own Matt Warren back in October. As noted in that piece, in March of 2024 when the NFL league year begins, $37 million of Wilson’s 2025 salary will become fully guaranteed. Right now, that money is only guaranteed for injury. Benching him ensures he can’t be injured during a game, thus triggering the injury guarantee.

Wilson already has a $39 million contract for 2024 which is fully guaranteed as well.

Then there is the matter of how difficult it will be for the Broncos to move on from Wilson. If the team were to trade him prior to June 1 — which would require finding a team willing to take on his salary for next year and beyond — they would still need to make corresponding moves to get under the salary cap, given the dead cap number that would be created with a Wilson trade. (Dead cap money is money already paid to a player but previously unaccounted for on the salary cap.) As Matt wrote in October:

Per Spotrac, Denver is already $19.1 million over the 2024 salary cap. Replacing Wilson’s existing cap hit with the dead cap number would add $32 million to Denver’s 2024 cap number, putting them more than $51 million over the cap. To do that, they would have to convince a team to miraculously trade for their starting quarterback and his large salaries in 2024 and 2025 to the tune of $86 million.

To outright cut him, the Broncos would be on the hook for $85 million in dead cap space. They could spread it over two seasons and be cap-compliant, but the previous record for dead cap money was $40.5 million, and Wilson’s figure would more than double it.

The Broncos are in a brutal financial position with Wilson’s deal, and it is one largely of their own doing. Not only did they trade for him to begin with, but they then signed him to the five-year extension on his deal before he even played a down in Denver.

And now, he might have played his last down in Denver.