The Dolphins don’t have a 1st-round pick in the 2023 draft, and it’s kind of Tom Brady’s fault

There’s little doubt that the Miami Dolphins are on the precipice of greatness. A 9-8 finish in 2022 gave them a Wild Card berth, and their narrow loss to the Bills in the playoffs could have looked a lot different if Tua Tagovailoa was able to play. This team’s mission now is to keep pouring gas on the fire.

That involves making smart draft picks. Alas, the Dolphins don’t have a first-round pick in 2023, with the team being forced to surrender the No. 21 pick for their orchestration of one of the dumbest, most-unnecessary schemes in recent memory.

Miami was already under fire publicly for their treatment of former coach Brian Flores, who posted back-to-back winning seasons before being inexplicably fired. Flores publicly claimed the Dolphins engaged in racial discrimination, with his lawsuit against the team and NFL still pending. While Miami was heavily under scrutiny, a bizarre behind-the-scenes planned was revealed, orchestrated by team owner Stephen Ross.

Ross had long-been obsessed with the idea of bringing Tom Brady to South Florida. So much so that the NFL found that Ross tampered with the QB not once, but twice. First making improper communications with Brady while he was on the Patriots in 2019, then again in 2021 when Brady was with the Buccaneers.

It emerged that Ross had hatched a swing-for-the-fences, win-now plan that involved bringing Brady to be the quarterback of the Dolphins, and pairing him with head coach Sean Payton. Payton, who was still under contract with the New Orleans Saints, had also been contacted by Ross and pitched this idea.

Curiously, several things about this scheme seemed to line up. Brady retired from the NFL in early 2022, Payton retired from the Saints in January as well, and not long after the Dolphins fired Flores.

We don’t know what Brady or Payton’s intentions were at the time, but the timing was very curious. The conditions were right to allow the Buccaneers and Saints to move on respectively, with Brady and Payton then un-retiring, and pressuring their way to the Dolphins.

Obviously this didn’t occur. News of the Miami scheme broke quickly, and the NFL launched an investigation into Brady, Payton, and the Dolphins organization. As a result Brady un-retired from the NFL, announcing he was returning to the Buccaneers in early March, while Payton sat out the 2022 season and took a broadcasting role, before returning to the NFL in 2023 to become coach of the Denver Broncos.

On August 2, 2022 the NFL announced that it had completed its investigation into the Dolphins’ scheme. Neither Brady nor Payton would face any kind of punishment, presumably because the evidence against them was circumstantial at best, but the same couldn’t be said for Stephen Ross.

Ross was fined $1.5 million for violating policies “pertaining to the integrity of the game,” was removed from all NFL owner committee appointments, and suspended two months. More importantly for the Dolphins, the team was forced to forfeit its 2023 first round pick, as well as a 4th round pick in 2024.

Losing the No. 21 pick in the draft isn’t great, but the move might be far more damaging that it appears on the surface.

Firstly, Miami still has needs the team needs to address — and that pick sits right where they could have filled a major need area. As it stands Miami needs help at Outside Linebacker and Tight End.

In our latest mock draft Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer is selected by the Chargers with the 22nd pick in the draft and would have been available for the Dolphins. This would have erased the loss of Mike Gesicki, who joined the Patriots in free agency — and given the offense a much-needed tool moving forward. In addition, the heavy weight of quarterback and linemen at the top of the 2023 class means that linebackers will fall, with someone like Clemson’s Myles Murphy being a natural fit in that pick range to provide depth, and a future plan at the position.

The real rub of losing the first rounder has nothing to do with making a pick at all. Not having consecutive first round picks in 2023 and 2024 has forced the Dolphins to sit on their hands and watch the Lamar Jackson situation unfold.

Jackson is a perfect, hand-meet-glove fit for the offense head coach Mike McDaniel is running in Miami. His versatile, dual threat ability, paired with the tremendous YAC ability of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle would unquestionably transform the Dolphins into one of the league’s most terrifying offenses.

However, league rules mandate that signing a player to an offer sheet while they’re on a non-exclusive franchise tag means that the signing team has two consecutive first round picks to give up in the event the tagging team chooses not to match the deal.

Since the Dolphins had to forfeit their first rounder this year, they now need to wait until after the draft to negotiate with Jackson. That might not be a problem, as the market has been suspiciously light for the former MVP — but with the signing of Odell Beckham Jr. this week by the Ravens, it could be a sign that progress is being made on a long-term deal with Jackson.

In short: Miami’s scheme to try and land Tom Brady as their quarterback could result in them losing the perfect franchise quarterback for a team eager to take the next step.