Social media proved how influential and meaningless it can be Thursday night when Kentucky quarterback Will Levis fell out of the first round of the NFL Draft.
Second round NFL Draft QBs have shaky history. Will Levis, Hendon Hooker are next
After a month of speculation, both quarterbacks fell out of the first round. Here’s why and what it means for their futures
Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images
Through no fault of his own, Levis was the betting favorite to be selected No. 2 overall as recently as Tuesday, while simultaneously being projected to the Colts at No. 4 overall. Indianapolis proved they’re not afraid to take a toolsy, dual threat quarterback.
Why two SEC quarterbacks fell out of the first round
The difference between Anthony Richardson and Levis, despite what you’ll read on Twitter, is that the 24-year-old quarterback to be is the one who struggles with decision-making and winning from the pocket.
Whereas, the soon-to-be 21-year-old — who isn’t without his faults — has a tremendous feel for the rush and is closer to being pro-ready in terms of knowing where to go with the ball and keeping the offense ahead of schedule.
The Colts made the logical decision, while the cameras (and Mel Kiper Jr.) reminded us every other pick that Levis was still available. Levis is expected to be drafted some time in the second round.
The way the NFL works with quarterbacks, you either have it, meaning you’re a first round pick, or you don’t — meaning you’re not. History isn’t on your side if you’re a signal-caller taken in the second round.
Levis and former Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Hendon Hooker were mainstays in the first round of mock drafts during this draft cycle. Hooker just turned 25 and is coming off an ACL injury he suffered last November.
If both quarterbacks wound up going in the second round of the draft, nobody would have batted an eye. But, in typical draft fashion, both prospects’ storyline jumped the shark. Out of nowhere, Hooker was mocked in the Top 10 as recently as late March.
Aside from his age and injury, Hooker played in an offense where the quarterback looks at one receiver. From there, he stares him down, waits for the wideout to make a read about 12–15 yards down the field after the receiver manipulated the coverage, and throws the ball.
From an efficiency standpoint, it’s a simplistic and effective way to play offense. This Art Briles, rinky-dink offense hasn’t infiltrated its way to the NFL, despite being over a decade old. That’s because the quarterback isn’t asked to do the simplest tasks he would be at the pro level.
So, we have Hooker, who has age, injury, and scheme working against him as a first round prospect. Then, there’s Levis, another victim of age. Find me the franchise willing to invest a first round pick in a quarterback who lost a competition in college that also had two turnover-prone seasons. Oh, and an alleged toe injury? It doesn’t exist.
What history says about a quarterback taken in the second round
Let’s look back at the recent quarterbacks selected in the second round and see what it means for Levis’s and Hooker’s future.
There were no quarterbacks selected in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, so here’s a look at the previous 20 years:
The most lenient analyst would struggle to find six or seven success stories from the names above, and that’s including Geno Smith after what he did last season.
Jalen Hurts went from being replaced to (briefly) the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL. He’s also fresh off one of the most impressive Super Bowl performances in recent memory. Hurts is an outlier.
The list above proves that the best-case scenario for a second-round quarterback is Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, or Andy Dalton. Carr and Dalton have played over 140 games, while Garoppolo was a part of a couple of recent playoff runs. For a quarterback drafted in the second round, that’s as good as it gets.
Colin Kaepernick had a magical playoff run that still haunts Packers fans over a decade ago. But six of the quarterbacks listed have more career interceptions than touchdowns, and two others haven’t taken an NFL snap. That’s the reality of life as a second-round quarterback.
Exempt from expectations
Levis’s draft process rivals Christian Hackenberg’s heading into the 2016 NFL Draft. Hackenberg was a surefire first-rounder — he was No. 1 at one point in ESPN’s Todd McShay’s mock draft the year prior — only to fall to pick No. 51.
Hackenberg is one of the quarterbacks to never see the field, and it was never an issue. Once you’re no longer a first-round quarterback, you’re officially exempt from any expectation. If you turn into a long-term starter like Carr, or a permanent bridge guy like Dalton and Garoppolo, that’s a win. But the majority of NFL fans haven’t heard of Kyle Trask, or don’t know which team Drew Lock plays for.
Much like those two, Hooker and Levis will no longer be considered a “bust” if their careers don’t pan out. Both could hear their names called relatively early Friday night. The Lions, Seahawks, Raiders, Saints, Titans, and Falcons could all use a quarterback and all pick within the first 14 picks of the second round.
If you’re an avid college football watcher, it’s more surprising that these two SEC quarterbacks received first-round hype in the first place. Now, Levis and Hooker enter the NFL playing with house money. And that may turn out to be the best-case scenario, given there’s no pressure on either to live up to March’s lofty (mock) draft status.
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