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Come Fan with UsTuesday, July 7, 2026

What is at stake in Bills-Dolphins

The final game of the 2023 NFL regular season has huge AFC playoff implications

Miami Dolphins v Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins v Buffalo Bills
Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images
Mark Schofield
Mark Schofield is a former college quarterback and attorney covering the NFL and F1.

The seven teams moving on to the playoffs in the AFC are set.

But the final game of the NFL regular season is going to play a huge factor in how the AFC playoffs will unfold.

The seven teams advancing in the AFC? The Baltimore Ravens, the Miami Dolphins, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Houston Texans, the Cleveland Browns, the Buffalo Bills, and the Pittsburgh Steelers. But while the Ravens, Chiefs, and Texans have clinched their divisions — and the Ravens the top-overall seed — Sunday night’s game between the Bills and the Dolphins has massive playoff implications.

The team that wins Sunday night clinches the AFC East, and the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, meaning at least two home playoff games. The team that loses drops to either No. 6, or No. 7, depending on which team wins.

If the Dolphins win

If the Miami Dolphins win on Sunday night, they will slot into the No. 2 spot and win the AFC East, and the AFC side of the playoffs would look like this:

1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Miami Dolphins
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Houston Texans
5. Cleveland Browns
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
7. Buffalo Bills

That would mean these would be the matchups on Wild Card Weekend:

Bills at Dolphins
Steelers at Chiefs
Browns at Texans

If the Bills win

If the Buffalo Bills win on Sunday night, they will slot into the No. 2 spot and win the AFC East. Miami would drop down into No. 6 spot, and the AFC side of the playoffs would look like this:

1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Houston Texans
5. Cleveland Browns
6. Miami Dolphins
7. Pittsburgh Steelers

That would mean these would be the matchups on Wild Card Weekend:

Steelers at Bills
Dolphins at Chiefs
Browns at Texans

If the Bills and Dolphins tie

What happens if the game on Sunday night ends in a tie?

The Dolphins would win the AFC East, and stay in the No. 2 spot. However, the Bills would only drop to the No. 6 spot, and not all the way to No. 7.

1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Miami Dolphins
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Houston Texans
5. Cleveland Browns
6. Buffalo Bills
7. Pittsburgh Steelers

So if tonight’s game ends in a tie, the Wild Card Weekend matchups in the AFC would be:

Steelers at Dolphins
Bills at Chiefs
Browns at Texans

We’ll see how this all plays out in the next few hours.

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