3 surprise upset picks for Week 6 in the NFL

Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season https://voxmedia.stories.usechorus.com/compose/992b6fd8-ca79-42d3-b9ff-67fbeeb9601a off to a strong start Thursday night, as the San Francisco 49ers held off a comeback attempt from the Seattle Seahawks to pull even with them in the NFC West standings, with a 34-26 win.

Now the focus shifts to the full weekend slate, and our attempt at identifying some upset specials for you as your attention shifts to the weekend as well. Here are SB Nation’s upset picks for Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season.

My quest for a first correct upset prediction rolls on ...

Last week we rolled with the Indianapolis Colts, and you saw how that went. I have yet to get one of these right, but we forge on.

The Cincinnati Bengals seem to have figured things out on the offensive side of the football, putting up 33 points or more in each of their last three games. But the problem comes on the defensive side of the football. Even with that scoring record the last three weeks, Cincinnati lost two of those three games. The Bengals defense gave up 38 points to the Commanders, 24 points to the Panthers, and 41 points in an overtime loss to the Ravens last Sunday.

That defense took another hit this week when they lost Dax Hill for the season with a knee injury.

Now they get a Giants team coming off a surprising win in Seattle, a victory that saw Daniel Jones play some of his best football of the season. I’m rolling with the Giants in this one.

The Jets are in “shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic” mode but Aaron Rodgers will have a point to prove against a Bills team that has given up over 340 yards per game so far this season. While Rodgers may not light up the boxscore, he will look to take advantage of Buffalo’s poor run defense and capitalize with the deep ball when time allows.

Plus, Rodgers needs to show Davante Adams, his former and potentially future teammate, that the changes in New York were the right moves.

The Bills have been a very good team (6th overall in DVOA) but their record does not match up. With questions about Sean McDermott’s decision-making last week, Buffalo could be feeling the pressure here on Monday Night Football.

Teams can often get a boost from firing a coach which bodes well for the Jets while a coach under scrutiny could have a negative impact for the Bills. The combination leads to a big upset in primetime.

This could very well be the game of the week, and there’s also a good chance it could be the upset of the week as well. We know who the Ravens are — they’re more or less the same team they’ve been for the majority of Lamar Jackson’s career, but in 2024 they’re deeper because of their ability to pound the ball up the middle with Derrick Henry, giving the offense another degree of depth.

So, why then could the Commanders win? They simply match up really, really well in this contest.

In order to contain Jackson and Henry linebacker play is at a premium, and the commanders boast two of the best tackling linebackers in the league with Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu. Their ability to plug the gaps as well as work horizontally bodes well for Washington’s ability to contain the run.

Then on offense the Commanders boast their own strong running game, while also having a QB in Jayden Daniels playing mistake-free football under center. For an opportunistic defensive team like Baltimore that’s a rough combo.

This sets the stage for a game where the Commanders could get a huge statement win against an AFC team good enough to have real Super Bowl potential this season.