Baker Mayfield is as confident as ever

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 3-1, and they will put that record on the line Thursday night against the Atlanta Falcons to kick off Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season.

Which makes this a perfect time to check in on Baker Mayfield.

Through four games this season Mayfield has connected on 70.5% of his passes for 984 yards and eight touchdowns, against just a pair of interceptions. Those eight passing touchdowns are second in the NFL, behind only Sam Darnold. Mayfield has also posted an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 6.68, 11th-best in the NFL and just behind Jared Goff, who capped off Week 3 of NFL action by throwing the league’s version of a perfect game.

Last week against the Philadelphia Eagles Mayfield was near-perfect himself, connecting on 30-for-47 passes for 347 yards and a pair of touchdowns. There was a lot to love about his game against the Eagles but one thing truly stands out: His ability to beat underneath defenders.

Let’s start with his second touchdown of the day, a 15-yard strike to Trey Palmer on a post route. Palmer is aligned on the right side of the offense, and with the Eagles in zone coverage, he has an advantage towards the middle of the field as the cornerback across from him is playing with outside leverage. But there is one problem.

Linebacker Nakobe Dean lurks underneath. The former Georgia Bulldog is right in the throwing lane, so Mayfield needs to fit this throw around #17 if he wants to connect with Palmer.

Watch as Mayfield does just that, staying patient on the pocket and then throwing the post route at the exact right moment, fitting the throw around Dean’s outstretched arms and into Palmer for the touchdown:

This was something of a theme on Sunday against the Eagles. Take this next example, a slant route thrown to Mike Evans. The receiver is running his route as part of a slant/flat combination with running back Rachaad White. Just before the snap Mayfield sends White in short motion out of the backfield and to the left, and Dean trails him. That creates a bit of a window for Evans’ slant route and gives Mayfield a pre-snap indicator that the Eagles are in man coverage.

When the play begins Philadelphia is indeed in man coverage. However, there is another potential problem for Mayfield if he wants to throw the slant: Dean’s fellow linebacker, Zack Baun, lurking as the underneath “hole” defender. His job in this Cover 1 scheme is to help on any in-breaking routes, such as slant routes.

Mayfield moves him just a few steps to Baun’s left with his eyes, away from Evans. The Buccaneers quarterback then rips in the slant route to Evans into a huge throwing lane, created by the combination of the pre-snap motion, and Mayfield’s ability to generate even more space with his eyes by influencing Baun:

The third example of this theme comes from later in the first half, with Mayfield again connecting with Evans on a slant route. Tampa Bay has White release out of the backfield on a swing route to the left side of the field, away from Evans and his slant route. This time it is Dean who gets influenced, as Mayfield takes the snap and looks towards Dean, and away from Evans’ slant route. That creates a huge throwing lane as the linebacker slides to his right, and Mayfield then snaps his eyes back to Evans and throws a strike:

All of this comes down to one basic idea, which we began the season with after Mayfield’s strong performance against the Washington Commanders back in Week 1: Mayfield is as confident as ever. All of these throws help illustrate a quarterback who is supremely confidence in the offense, the players around him, and himself.

That confidence is something to watch not just tonight against the Falcons, but over the rest of the season.