NFL playoff picture: What does Texans-Chiefs mean for AFC standings

Game result: The Chiefs beat the Texans 27-19 to improve to 14-1. The Chiefs now wait to see the Bills-Patriots game on Sunday. If Buffalo lose or tie against New England, Kansas City will clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

The Texans drop to 9-6 and remain in fourth place in the AFC. This is the lowest they can drop in the standings. If the Steelers beat the Ravens, Houston is all but certain to finish with the No. 4 seed. If the Ravens beat the Steelers, it opens the door for the Texans to move up to the No. 3 seed with their head-to-head matchup against the Ravens coming up next week.

Saturday football is back — at least temporarily — and it gets underway with a matchup between the AFC-leading Kansas City Chiefs and the AFC South-winning Houston Texans. With the injured Patrick Mahomes expected to play and seeding still up in the air for both teams, this one matters with both teams playoff-bound.

The game is set for 1 p.m. ET on Saturday from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites despite that home-field advantage, which is likely due to the high ankle sprain that Mahomes is dealing with on top of Houston’s strong play in recent weeks. That line comes courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Unlike the Chiefs, the Texans don’t have a chance to earn the top seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. But they’re still in the running for seeds two through four as a division winner. Right now they’re sitting at fourth, and being a game back of the Pittsburgh Steelers in third and two games back of the Buffalo Bills in second, they’ve got to keep winning to improve their seeding.

As they’re playing on Saturday, all Houston will know if they beat the Chiefs is that they potentially helped themselves. While they control the fourth seed, they’ll need the teams above them to lose some games in order to improve that seeding. Going forward, they’ll need the Bills to lose two of their final three and Pittsburgh to lose at least once while winning all of their games to secure the second seed. For the third seed, they would just need to win out coupled with a Pittsburgh loss or two Bills losses.

Again, things are very simple for the Chiefs right now. As the lone team sitting at 13-1, all they have to do is win one more game while the Bills, at 11-3, lose one more game. The Chiefs will then clinch a first-round bye and home-field advantage through the championship round of the postseason. They can also clinch this week in the unlikely event that they tie and the Bills lose, or if they win and the Bills tie.

While both teams are guaranteed a spot in the postseason, there are still tiebreakers to consider. The AFC is generally pretty separated when it comes to overall record, with each of the top four teams holding different records, with ties primarily coming into the equation in the wild card spots.

That means that conference record could be the main factor here, as the fourth tiebreak down the list that could come into play. The Chiefs sit alone at 8-1 in the AFC, while all three teams that could be vying for the second seed — Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Houston — sit at 7-2 within the conference. Such a tiebreak comes into effect after head-to-head, divisional matchups, and records in common games.