Every NFL playoff team, ranked by its 2025 Super Bowl chances

The NFL playoff field is set.

Two spots were up for grabs on the final day of the 2024 regular season, one in the NFC and one in the AFC. On the NFC side of things thanks to their win over the New Orleans Saints, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers clinched the NFC South title.

On the AFC side, the Denver Broncos punched their playoff ticket as the No. 7 seed after their win over the Kansas City Chiefs.

Now that the field has been set, let’s rank all 14 playoff teams by their chances of winning the Super Bowl, as voted on by the SB Nation staff.

The Broncos won Super Bowl 50 following the 2015 season, and they hadn’t made the postseason since ... until a 38-0 win over the (starter-less) Chiefs in Week 18 punched their ticket to the Wild Card round.

The Broncos exceeded expectations in 2024. The pass rush has been a problem for opponents this year, and the Broncos, led by Nik Bonnitto, Jonathon Cooper, and Zach Allen, sacked their way to the top of the league this season. They finished first in the NFL with 58 sacks, and added 87 tackles for loss.

But the offense, with rookie quarterback Bo Nix behind center, has been the real surprise. Sean Payton and Nix have been a perfect fit, with the rookie throwing for a respectable 3,454 yards, 25 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. I don’t think anyone expected this quick of a turnaround from the team that carried over $32m in dead cap into the 2024 season thanks to the failed Russell Wilson experiment, and it won’t be surprising if the Broncos don’t make a deep run. But Payton and Nix have already exceeded expectations this season, and I wouldn’t look past them. - JK

The Texans were a sweetheart pick before the season to make big waves in 2025, and now the playoffs are here they’re just ... fine. Injuries at skill positions made life difficult for C.J. Stroud and it had a domino effect on the offense, while defensively the team didn’t really take the big step forward the organization had planned by adding Danielle Hunter to the pass rush.

As a result the Texans were a middling team in the NFL this season in spite of their record. 18th in the NFL in points scored, 16th in points allowed — it was enough to coast in the hapless AFC South, but things get much more difficult now.

Houston remains one of the brightest teams in the league when it comes to the organization’s future, but these playoffs feel a little too early to believe they can win right now. — JD

The Pittsburgh Steelers are moving onto the NFL Playoffs.

But it is hard to feel any level of confidence in them as things get underway.

A few weeks ago the Steelers were in control of their own destiny in the AFC North, with a chance to clinch the division with a win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16. But that week the Steelers lost to the Ravens, witnessing their chance at a division title slip through their grasp.

Now after their 19-17 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in the season finale, the Steelers head into the postseason on the back of a four-game losing streak. Their offense has looked anemic in recent weeks, Russell Wilson is not the quarterback he was earlier in the year when the Steelers were rolling, and they will have to start out their postseason run on the road.

A huge reversal over just a few short weeks. — MS

The NFC South is the NFL’s weirdest division, and that was extremely true in Week 18 as the Buccaneers took on the Saints and the Falcons faced the Panthers with the results of each game key to determining the NFC South champion. If you are at all familiar with the tendencies of the Atlanta Falcons, you’re not surprised the Buccaneers snagged that top spot for the fourth consecutive year.

A few weeks ago, the Falcons were undefeated in the division and the Bucs’ future wasn’t looking particularly bright. Mike Evans missed some time with a hamstring problem, and Tampa Bay lost Chris Godwin, who has the third-most receiving yards on the entire roster despite landing on IR in late October with an ankle injury. The Bucs hit a four-week skid but bounced back to win six out of their last seven games thanks in large part to a career year from Baker Mayfield (4,279 yards and 39 TDs) and a pass rush that finished the season tied for 5th in the league with 44 sacks. We’ll see what happens in the Wild Card round, but that certainly suggests they’re peaking at the right time. — JK

Anyone who tells you they had the Commanders in the playoffs this season is probably lying. A year after finishing 4-13, Washington completely rebranded the franchise with the selection of quarterback Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 overall draft pick. Daniels has been one of the NFL’s best QBs from day one, providing electric playmaking ability that has galvanized the offense and help turn this team into the league’s biggest surprise. Daniels and the offense have had to put up a lot of points, because this defense remains shaky, even with a defensive mastermind in Dan Quinn installed at head coach. Washington ranks only No. 24 in EPA per play defensively. The offense has been up to the challenge: with Kliff Kingsbury calling the plays and Daniels threatening defenses with his legs as much as his arm, Washington put up the No. 4 offense in the league by DVOA per play. Playing the Commanders means preparing for a shootout. As long as they have Daniels at QB, Washington will like its chances. — ROD

Head coach Matt LaFleur has done masterful work with the Packers since he started winning games with Malik Willis at quarterback early in the season. When starter Jordan Love returned to the lineup, Green Bay became an explosive passing offense with a defense that could stifle opponents. Love entered Week 18 with eight yards per attempt through the air, which is top-5 in the NFL. While he lacks a dominant, go-to receiver, he was a deep stable of pass catchers (Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and tight end Tucker Kraft) who can each be the primary option on any given week.

Green Bay’s defense has been the real revelation. A year ago, the Packers defense ranked No. 23 in EPA per play. This year, it’s No. 4 in the same metric. The Packers are third in the league with a +12 turnover ratio entering Week 18. The pass rush has been able to get home all year, with 44 sacks entering Week 18, a number only six teams can top. Love’s elbow injury suffered in a Week 18 loss to Chicago is scary, but Green Bay has to hope he’s 100 percent against the Eagles in the playoff opener. The Packers are just a balanced, well-coached team, and that should serve them well in a wide-open NFC. — ROD

Jim Harbaugh implemented his culture immediately, and it took the Chargers from a laughingstock to a playoff team in his first season as head coach. The team lost its top-two receivers and star running back over the offseason, but rebranded as a smash-mouth team around superstar quarterback Justin Herbert. The Chargers have been running the ball effectively all year without a thousand-yard rusher, and they’ve been winning the turnover battle all year. Herbert found a go-to target in rookie wide out Ladd McConkey, and he’s gotten more out of 2023 first round pick Quentin Johnston after a disappointing rookie season. LA is also tied for the fewest penalties per game in the league. The Chargers might not have top-end talent around Herbert yet, but this is a disciplined, physical team that never beats itself. With Herbert under center always capable of making a play, LA is a team no one can take lightly in the playoffs. — ROD

The Rams are one of those teams you’d be happy to see in the playoffs, and also utterly terrified of them. Easily one of the league’s premiere “Jekyll and Hyde” teams, the 10-7 Rams have looked incredibly vulnerable at points this season — but many of those came while either Puka Nakua was injured, or Cooper Kupp, or both.

Offensively this is a more balanced team than the 2021 unit that won the Super Bowl. Kyren Williams has added a new element on the ground that has taken a lot of pressure off the passing game to carry everything, and that’s before we get to the astounding depth at WR the Rams have.

Defensively the team is also solid, giving up a lot of yards, but becoming stout in the red zone where they’ve only given up 22.3 points-per-game, good for 15th in the NFL. On any given Sunday this team can beat down anyone in the league, making them a serious dark horse. — JD

There aren’t many better stories in the NFL this season than the Vikings. A year ago, Minnesota finished 7-10 and used its top-10 draft pick on Michigan QB JJ McCarthy. McCarthy tore his ACL in training camp, forcing Sam Darnold into the spotlight, and setting up one of the most unlikely breakout seasons in recent memory. Darnold has been phenomenal, throwing for more than 4,100 yards to go with 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions entering the season’s final week. It’s easy to throw to Justin Jefferson, who has a case as the league’s best player regardless of position, and once again put together a superstar-caliber season. With Jordan Addison, TJ Hockinson, and Aaron Jones around Darnold and Jefferson, there are some real weapons on this offense.

Minnesota’s defense has been even more dominant, ranking No. 1 in the league by EPA per play. All credit goes to defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who has dialed up the heat all season long. The Vikings are tied for third in total sacks entering the final week, with Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard each tallying double-figures in QB takedowns. Byron Murphy Jr’s six interceptions have helped this defense generate big plays. The Vikings weren’t supposed to be here, but their Cinderella story isn’t over yet in highly winnable NFC. — ROD

The Philadelphia Eagles have perhaps the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year in Saquon Barkley, who passed on a chance to set a new NFL single-season rushing record but became just the ninth player in league history to eclipse 2,000 rushing yards in a season. They have one of the league’s best offensive lines, a pair of standout receivers in A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, and a defense that since the team’s early bye week has been performing extremely well, but for their loss to the Commanders in Week 16.

They also have a quarterback in Jalen Hurts who, while inconsistent this season, has already shown he can be at his best when the lights are brightest.

Is that enough for the Eagles to make a deep run? With the questions facing other teams in the NFC, it just might be. — MS

If the Lions weren’t bit by the injury bug at the worst possible time they’d be the No. 1 team without hesitation. Unfortunately the once-juggernauts of the NFL have looked significantly weaker in recent weeks due to a swath of players who are out on defense.

A total of 13 defensive players are on IR, notably including Aidan Hutchinson, and a trio of critical cornerbacks. And there is concern about first-round cornerback Terrion Arnold, who was carted off during Sunday night’s win over the Minnesota Vikings with what the team called a foot injury. It’s left the Lions unquestionably damaged entering the postseason, but don’t confuse that with them being dead in the water.

And there is hope that some of the injured players will find a way back during the postseason, including pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who is reportedly “on track” for his goal of a return by the Super Bowl after fracturing his tibia and fibula earlier this year.

This is still a Detroit team boasting the best offense in the NFL, with the best offensive coordinator, and a quarterback capable of putting it all together. The NFC has been consistently inconsistent this season, and the Lions have been one of the steadiest teams in all of football. They might not seem as safe a bet as they did a couple of months ago, but make no mistake: The Lions are still elite. — JD

The Baltimore Ravens have moved past a couple off fluky losses to the Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns in the first two months of the season to secure the three seed in the AFC. They’ve defeated five or six playoff teams in the process, and when their offense is firing, it’s on all cylinders behind Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Their defense has really turned it on in the second half of the season, too.

Baltimore is likely going to have to go on the road to do it, though, and that’s been somewhat of a struggle for them. Three of their losses were on the road this season.

They also have to overcome a sluggish playoff record. Since Lamar Jackson was drafted, the Ravens are 2-5 in the postseason (Jackson is 2-4). Jackson’s playoff stats leave a lot to be desired, and he’s averaging 57% completion percentage, one passing touchdown, one interception, a 75.7 passer rating, and more than four sacks taken per game as Baltimore has topped 20 points just once. He has added 521 yards and three touchdowns on the ground in those contests. — MW

The Buffalo Bills have shown they can beat any team in the NFL, winning games against both the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs in the second half of the season. All three of their losses have come to playoff teams. Their last AFC loss was October 6th and they won 10 of their last 11 games before resting their starters in Week 18. Behind Josh Allen, it’s hard to think the Bills don’t have one of the best chances in the AFC of making the Super Bowl.

Their defense has been suspect, however, and if there is one thing that has kept the Bills out of the Super Bowl in the past, it’s that Achilles’ heel. Allen’s playoff stats have been remarkable, and he’s left the field with a fourth-quarter lead in three of Buffalo’s five playoff losses with him at the helm. This year’s defense has relied on turnovers while giving up yards in bunches, which can be a tumultuous way to live. — MW

For weeks, people questioned the Kansas City Chiefs.

Their point differential was used as evidence they were paper tigers. Their record in one-score games meant that eventually their luck would run out. Despite racking up win after win, it seemed the Chiefs faced more questions than answers.

But now, just as the playoffs are beginning, it seems Kansas City is actually rounding into form. Their 29-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day might have been their most impressive — and complete — performance of the season. Having already secured home-field advantage the Chiefs rested their starters in Week 18, and with their early game in Week 17 that means Kansas City will be coming off an extended bye week in the Divisional Round.

Sure their luck might run out, and yes there is a reason no team has won three consecutive Super Bowls. But right now, the Chiefs look like they may very well be the first team to do just that. — MS