Why Eagles vs. Packers will be ultimate football chess match in NFL Playoffs

Matchup to watch: Green Bay’s downfield passing vs. Philadelphia’s downfield defense

Both these teams come into this game injured, but I’m a little bit more worried about the Packers’ injuries than Philly’s. Yes, QB Jordan Love hurt his elbow, but all reports seem to lead to him playing. However, WR Christian Watson is done for the year with a torn ACL. While his hands have been inconsistent, his field-tilting speed has not only given the Packers a downfield threat, but pried open holes for other receivers. Watson’s 17.1 Average Depth of Target is second in the NFL among pass catchers with at least 50 targets, and even without being targeted, his speed opens up the dig windows that Love chases after. He’s their most explosive outside receiver, someone Packers’ head coach Matt LaFleur calls on when they need a big play downfield. While teammates Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs operate more in the in-between areas, Watson is the field stretcher, and him being out is an issue, because they miss the ability to go and do this:

This is a problem against an Eagles’ defense that wants to constrict you and force you to play the game underneath. In a funny way, this specific matchup is really fun philosophically. You have the Packers’ offense, that is all gas and no brakes when throwing the ball and uses the run game to be efficient, going against an Eagles defense that forces you to be patient and wait for the moments to take shots downfield. Whoever blinks first could end up behind the 8-ball, which is why football is so fun.

The Eagles’ secondary capitalizes on overaggressive throws over the middle, where they have safeties Reed Blankenship and CJ Gardner-Johnson hammering hard on any dig routes. Expect a lot of Blankenship trying to “poach” any in-breaking routes from his other safety spot, jumping digs and overs is basically his specialty. This “poach” technique by Gardner-Johnson is what allowed Blankenship to grab an interception against the Commanders in Quarters coverage, because he’s allowed to hammer hard on this out-breaker.

Without Watson on the field, I wonder how the Packers will create that outside vertical threat, which should open up the passing lanes in theory, but this is a Vic Fangio defense so who knows what’ll happen. Both of these teams are very different from their Week 1 matchup in Brazil, both personnel-wise and playing style-wise. Their rematch should be a very fun chess match.

Individual matchup to watch: Packers’ RB Josh Jacobs vs. Eagles’ LBs Zack Baun and Nakobe Dean