1 matchup that will decide every NFL Playoffs Wild Card Weekend game

Matchup to watch: The Ravens’ offense minus Zay Flowers vs the Steelers’ defense

This one is sort of a weird one, but it’s the biggest aspect of this game. Ravens’ Pro Bowl WR Zay Flowers injured his knee in the Browns game last week, and head coach John Harbaugh said the receiver is “day-to-day”. In the hypothetical where Flowers can’t play, this is a massive blow for that offense. It’s actually funny watching the Ravens play, because they’re doing very similar stuff to the 49ers and Lions, but with the best QB in the entire league at the helm. How Flowers fits into that is simple: he is Baltimore’s juice, their explosive play guy. He also serves as another way to generate Yards After the Catch. He’s 12th in the NFL in screen routes run, and his 0.17 EPA per target is 10th among all receivers with at least 10 screen route targets.

Matchup to watch: Green Bay’s downfield passing vs. Philadelphia’s downfield defense

Both these teams come into this game injured, but I’m a little bit more worried about the Packers’ injuries than Philly’s. Yes, QB Jordan Love hurt his elbow, but all reports seem to lead to him playing. However, WR Christian Watson is done for the year with a torn ACL. While his hands have been inconsistent, his field-tilting speed has not only given the Packers a downfield threat, but pried open holes for other receivers. Watson’s 17.1 Average Depth of Target is second in the NFL among pass catchers with at least 50 targets, and even without being targeted, his speed opens up the dig windows that Love chases after. He’s their most explosive outside receiver, someone Packers’ head coach Matt LaFleur calls on when they need a big play downfield. While teammates Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs operate more in the in-between areas, Watson is the field stretcher, and him being out is an issue, because they miss the ability to go and do this:

Matchup to watch: Buffalo’s offense vs. Denver’s man coverage

In my opinion, this is the most interesting game of the weekend. Buffalo and Denver share a lot of strengths, but the collision course between arguably the best defense in the NFL and one of the most complementary offenses in the NFL might be the best matchup of the weekend. The Broncos play a LOT of man coverage: in fact, per SIS they’re third in the NFL in total snaps of man coverage played.

Matchup to watch: Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert vs the Texans’ middle of the field pass defense

While this game has potential to be the snoozer of the wild card round, I actually think there are some interesting points where the game can swing. If the Texans’ offense can pick up a blitz for the first time this season they might be able to pull off the upset, but against a Chargers’ defense that’s known for making lives miserable for opposing offenses via creative blitz packages and pressure looks, it might be uphill sledding. So I’m flipping riverside, focusing on how Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert performs in his return to the playoffs against a Texans’ defense that is very good, very fast and very physical.