Super Bowl pick: Prediction against the spread after Seahawks-Patriots odds set

The 2026 Super Bowl matchup is set as the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots will face off in less than two weeks at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite against the Patriots, 11 years removed from settling as a one-point favorite in their last Super Bowl matchup with the Patriots.

That game ended with the Patriots picking off Russell Wilson in the final minute to secure a 28-24 upset. Consider me skeptical we see a similar close matchup this time around. The Patriots have beaten some stout defenses during the 2026 NFL Playoffs, but I don’t think they’ll be able to do nearly enough in a fourth such matchup.

The Seahawks defense ranked second in EPA/play this season, which was just behind the Texans. While the Patriots did beat the Texans, it came amidst snow and rain with C.J. Stroud throwing four interceptions. They preceded that with a win over the seventh-ranked Chargers and followed it with a win over the eighth-ranked Broncos. On the one hand, that’s an impressive run. On the other hand, the weather elements in the Texans and Broncos games in particular give me pause.

New England could very well win the Super Bowl, but they need too many things going right and they won’t be able to take advantage of the weather element from the past two rounds. I don’t think they will be able to consistently move on this Seahawks defense, and I think we saw the tip of the iceberg from Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba against the Rams. This might be a tight game early, but I think at some point the Seahawks break it open into a double-digit lead and cruise to victory from there.

This game feels a lot more like the Seahawks-Broncos Super Bowl than the first Patriots-Rams game. I suspect the NFC title game was the Super Bowl and this is the coronation.