The 2015-16 NHL season hasn’t even reached the midway point yet and the division races are already thrilling to watch.
For two NHL division leaders, the rearview mirror is dark and full of terrors
Which division leaders will lose their leads by the playoffs?
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
That’s quite a shift from the beginning of the year. One team from each division shot out to a commanding lead. Their foes have started to reel them in a bit, but not enough for a real challenge for the top spot anywhere yet.
It’s only a matter of time, though. As the calendar begins to flip over to 2016, now is as good a time as ever to asses each division leader and figure out who has the worst chance of keeping their crown by the end of the season.
A quick note before we begin: I added Simple Rating System (SRS) and Strength Of Schedule (SOS) for each team below. Both are from Hockey-Reference. SOS is pretty straightforward: The strength of a team’s opponents so far. SRS just takes into account average goal differential and strength of schedule. Simply put: Zero is average, higher is stronger and lower is weaker. They just add another flavor of perspective to the standings.
I decided to rank the division leaders from best hold on the lead to worst. Because that way you’ll read the whole thing.
I know how you think.
4. Kings
The only division where the sole interesting battle will be for the final two playoff spots in the division. Los Angeles owns the distinction of the only positive goal differential in the Pacific. The rest of the division leaks goals like a punctured gallon of milk.
And each of their rivals faces huge issues. Logan Couture is out indefinitely in San Jose. Arizona's strong season is bolstered by a ridiculous and unsustainable shooting percentage. Plus, their net belongs to Anders Lindback for the next two months while Mike Smith recovers from injury.
They’re doomed.
And that’s it. Those are the only two teams in the bunch that could’ve challenged the Kings this year if the Ducks hadn’t decided to punt on the whole season.
3. Capitals
| Metropolitan Division | GP | P | DIFF | P% | SRS | SOS |
| Capitals | 30 | 46 | +27 | .767 | 0,86 | -0.04 |
| Rangers | 32 | 42 | +20 | .656 | 0.53 | -0.10 |
| Islanders | 32 | 41 | +13 | .641 | 0.41 | 0.00 |
| Devils | 31 | 36 | +1 | .581 | -0.02 | -0.05 |
| Penguins | 30 | 33 | -6 | .550 | -0.14 | 0.06 |
| Flyers | 31 | 32 | -20 | .516 | -0.60 | 0.04 |
| Hurricanes | 31 | 29 | -19 | .468 | -0.58 | 0.03 |
| Blue Jackets | 33 | 25 | -24 | .379 | -0.66 | 0.07 |
Washington only really has one team to contend with. The Islanders and Devils are enjoying solid seasons, but their differentials indicate they won't have enough to catch up to the Capitals. That leaves the Rangers.
They have three matchups left with Washington, two of which are on the road. Both clubs have some of the weakest strength of schedules so far in the Eastern Conference, and both have at least 28 games left against playoff teams. And the Capitals do have a brutal 10-game stretch against playoff teams in mid-February to deal with.
So there's a decent chance New York overtakes them. But that's the only threat.
2. Canadiens
| Atlantic Division | GP | P | DIFF | P% | SRS | SOS |
| Canadiens | 32 | 43 | +28 | .672 | 0.90 | 0.02 |
| Bruins | 30 | 38 | +16 | .633 | 0.63 | 0.09 |
| Red Wings | 31 | 38 | E | .613 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Senators | 32 | 37 | +3 | .578 | 0.11 | 0.01 |
| Lightning | 32 | 35 | +5 | .547 | 0.16 | 0.01 |
| Panthers | 31 | 34 | +6 | .548 | 0.24 | 0.05 |
| Sabres | 32 | 29 | -12 | .453 | -0.40 | -0.02 |
| Maple Leafs | 29 | 26 | -13 | .448 | -0.29 | 0.16 |
The way the Canadiens (and the rest of the Atlantic) began the year, you'd think the division lead wouldn't still be up for debate. But Boston has rebounded nicely and turned their goal differential around on a dime. (Thank you, Tuukka Rask.) The Red Wings have remained consistent all season, and the Senators are even putting up a spirited fight in the Atlantic.
And then there's the Lightning. What a horrid year, right? The Triplets Line is demolished. Stamkos drama swirls. Injuries plague them. And yet there they sit, just eight points behind Montreal. A huge second-half turnaround is a real possibility for a team that talented.
Simply put, Montreal needs to keep up the blistering pace to secure their spot atop the Atlantic.
1. Dallas Stars
The Stars’ emergence as a true Stanley Cup contender is a legitimate story line and isn’t likely to change. They’ll make the playoffs, barring a cataclysmic collapse. But their grasp on their division lead is the flimsiest.
But Pat, they lead the entire league in points!
Sure. But leading from the Central is a lot different than leading from the Atlantic. St. Louis, Chicago and Minnesota can close that 10-point gap pretty quickly. At this point, the top five teams in the Central are all playoff teams.
And this is uncharted territory for Dallas. Their lead is due to the best start in franchise history, but their strength of schedule so far is the weakest of any division leader. The road ahead is difficult. The Stars are notoriously awful in back-to-back situations (though they’ve gotten better), and they have six of those left. Of those 12 games, nine of them are on the road, five are against division rivals and nine are against playoff teams.
Can the Stars keep going against the grain, outscoring opponents while their defense leaks goals from time to time? Their division bedfellows are starting to keep pace. The back half of the schedule is a difficult climb, and Dallas will need to prove they know how to lock it down.
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