You’d be surprised at how important a non-rivalry game between the United States and a little country called Finland could be. On Friday afternoon, the United States took down Canada 4-3 in the World Juniors’ first outdoor game, marking a historic event with a much-needed victory.
2018 World Juniors: The United States has seeding on the line against Finland
We break down every likely scenario for the United States in World Junior playoff seeding.
Photo by Kevin Hoffman/Getty Images
While the United States still has one loss in the round-robin tournament of this year’s World Juniors, a win against rival Canada was needed, lest they make a harder road for themselves to repeat as champions. First place in Group A is out of their hands now that Canada swiftly dispatched Denmark on Saturday, but the order of the remaining three seeds is still in play.
This is where Finland comes in, with the United States set to play its final round-robin game on Sunday afternoon. Given the current standings, the United States can either jump to the second seed or fall to the fourth, given some educated guess work.
2018 World Juniors Group A Standings
TEAM | W | OTW | OTL | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| Finland | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| United States | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Slovakia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Denmark | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Thanks to its win over Denmark on Saturday, Canada is first in Group A with 10 points in the standings. With three points given for a win, two for an overtime win, one for an overtime loss, and none for a regulation loss, the United States would need to win in regulation to hit eight points and secure second place.
A loss would make things more murky, as after the United States plays on Sunday, Group A finishes with Denmark and Slovakia. Though we’re not predictors of the future, it’s almost assured Slovakia will beat Denmark, which has lost all three games coming into Sunday. That means Slovakia will likely add three points, giving them six alongside Finland.
Given this, here’s how the United States could seed given their game against Finland.
- If the United States wins in regulation, they’ll jump both Finland and Slovakia to finish in the second seed with eight points.
- If the United States wins in overtime, they’ll tie Finland with seven points but finish second thanks to having bested them in head-to-head.
- If the United States loses in overtime and Slovakia wins, they’ll tie and finish fourth with six points thanks to losing to them earlier in the round robin.
- If the United States loses in regulation and Slovakia wins, they’ll finish the round robin in the fourth seed.
There are other scenarios to consider, like if the United States loses but Slovakia wins in overtime, but the major factor to remember is that tie-breakers in the standings are given to the winner of the head-to-head matchup earlier in the tournament. The Americans’ loss against Slovakia earlier in the tournament makes things more interesting should they lose to Finland, but ultimately their destiny lies in their hands.
As for who the United States could face, with Sweden having locked up first place in Group B thanks to having the tiebreaker in hand, that is a bit harder to define until all the games are played. Thanks to the World Juniors’ playoff format, we do know that the United States will face Sweden if seeded fourth in Group A despite the outcomes on Sunday.
That leaves, however, a few questions if the United States lands in the second seed. Russia and the Czech Republic are vying for second place in Group B at the moment, but a Switzerland win on Sunday could put them right back into the mix.
In any case, we’ll all know the seedings and proceedings by late Sunday evening. The United States may control their path to the World Junior playoffs, but the other side of the bracket is certainly harder to predict. Sunday’s game against Finland, however, should be appointment viewing for hockey fans.
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