Let’s figure out which teams are still in the dried up Matt Duchene trade market

Back in March, as the trade deadline approached, Colorado Avalanche general manager Joe Sakic was reportedly looking for “an established, young NHL player, plus a first-round draft pick and a top prospect” for center Matt Duchene.

With that price point in mind, we tried to line up suitors for him. There were ... a lot.

That was four months ago. Much has changed in the meantime between the draft, expansion draft, and free agency. The Predators, Coyotes, Canadiens, Islanders, Hurricanes, Blue Jackets, Bruins, and Penguins have all been linked to Duchene to varying degrees. And yet, Duchene is still on the Avalanche, and we’re a few months away from him playing for the Avalanche again.

How many suitors can possibly remain? Sakic has held firm to that lofty asking price, no doubt hoping someone would submit to his terms either before free agency or after, when their options dried up.

You can see the logic. Teams will drop out of the race for Duchene as they add players in the offseason, and hopefully the one or two teams leftover are desperate enough to match your price tag.

Teams have dropped out. Using our March post as a foundation and insider reports that’ve come out since, let’s guess just who might still be in the hunt for Duchene’s services ... and whether Joe Sakic’s ridiculous asking price has actually hurt his bargaining power.

In or out: Still in.

The Hurricanes’ biggest splurges this offseason have been on defense (Trevor van Riemsdyk) and in net (Scott Darling). They added Justin Williams on the wing and Marcus Kruger up the middle, but they still lack a dynamic player at the center position. Every piece we mentioned in March (Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Justin Faulk) is still there, and there were even rumblings Carolina was open to trading Noah Hanifin at the draft.

Who knows how true that is. But the need for Duchene and the assets to get him remain. Nothing to see here.

(Update: Hah. No. Out.)

Teams remaining: 7

In or out? Probably out.

Even after signing Alex Galchenyuk, the Canadiens lack skill at center. The only issue is the money they’ve thrown around this offseason doesn’t leave them with much room to fit in Duchene’s $6 million cap hit (they have $9.162 million in space). That doesn’t even take Carey Price’s $10.5 million cap hit that sets in next summer, which would really make Duchene a tough fit.

The need is still there, but they’ve priced themselves out of the race.

Teams remaining: 6

In or out? Gone.

If this were NHL 17 you could get this deal done in an instant. Just pile up the three top picks acquired in the Travis Hamonic trade at Sakic’s doorstep and you’re done.

Alas, this is real life. And the Islanders need to conserve space for John Tavares’ next contract, especially after trading for Jordan Eberle’s $6 million cap hit. The Islanders weren’t willing to match the Avs’ demands in March, and by one account they’ve given up the chase for Duchene. For now, that’s enough to seed doubt.

Teams remaining: 5

In or out? Likely out.

For a moment there, it felt like the Predators had risen to the top of the possibilities heap. Everything about Duchene-to-Nashville made sense: they just barely missed out on winning the Stanley Cup, they had established defensemen who could entice the Avalanche, and the loss of Ryan Johansen exposed a glaring need for a second line center.

But David Poile quashed those rumors at the draft, and his logic makes sense: they’ve dealt too many defensemen (Shea Weber, Seth Jones) lately, and he’s unwilling to break up that elite top-four.

The Predators also signed Nick Bonino in free agency; with over $10 million tied up in Bonino and Johansen, it makes a Duchene deal even more doubtful.

Teams remaining: 4

In or out? Out, if they ever were in it at all.

In hindsight, they might’ve been in on a Duchene deal. But we only have that hindsight because of their aggressive trade for Derek Stepan in June. Now that hole at center is closed, and so is the idea of Duchene in the desert.

Teams remaining: 3

In or out? In. Right?

The Jackets feel like one of the last two good fits for a Duchene trade, if only because Columbus Dispatch reporter Aaron Portzline has reported on talks over the last few weeks. At one point, he reported the Avs had asked for defenseman Gabriel Carlsson in a draft weekend trade offer. Ryan Murray may also be involved.

At the same time, Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen made it clear he’s not going to overpay for one player right now:

“You can’t mortgage the future thinking this has to be the year,” Kekalainen said. “We’re not there right now.

“If there’s a deal there, we’ll make it. But it’s not as if our window is closing.”

So the Blue Jackets aren’t technically out of the mix yet, but they’re going to wait Sakic out first.

Teams remaining: 3

In or out: Who the hell knows?

If the Penguins trade for Duchene, he’ll play as a winger. He’s not a third liner.

And any trade for Duchene would require some creativity from the Penguins. See any established, young NHL defenseman on that roster that a) the Penguins would want to part with and b) the Avalanche would want at all?

I don’t. Justin Schultz just signed an extension. Olli Maatta doesn’t seem like a guy Pittsburgh is willing to part with. Brian Dumoulin is coming into his own after a strong playoff run.

And besides, that playoff run was built with a patchwork defensive corps. My brain can’t make sense of Pittsburgh adding another high-priced forward and gutting the weakest part of its system in the process.

I’m no insider. I just blog and make Twitters. Maybe this connection is serious. But ... ehh.

Teams remaining: 2

In or out: In.

Yep, the Bruins and Avalanche have started talking again about Duchene. Boston was one of the first teams to circle the Avalanche when they were miserable in January, but Brandon Carlo’s name took Boston out of the mix.

Then Charlie McAvoy had a terrific playoff series as a teenager. And now Carlo’s name is back in the Duchene discussions, per reports. Boston is still as good a fit as it was seven months ago. And you think fans won’t clamor for this move to happen after the last piece of the Tyler Seguin trade left this summer?

I’d be willing to bet the Bruins are still in this thing; Carlo fits the established player bill, and Boston has prospects like Zachary Senyshyn, Jake DeBrusk, and Jeremy Lauzon to dangle as well.

Two teams remaining: Bruins and Blue Jackets

I suppose that’s the point of trade bidding wars, right? Stick to your price, let the noncommittal vultures abandon the hunt until you’re left with a small number of hungry teams you can play against one another.

In that sense, Sakic and the Avalanche have done well. Each of the three (presumably) remaining teams need a player like Duchene and have the assets to placate Sakic. I get the frustrations from impatient Avs fans. The longer this drags out, the more nervous they’ll get that Sakic will get burned. And it can’t be a comfortable offseason of waiting for Duchene, either.

This is the game Sakic chose to play, however. His intentions were to get the best value for a good player to help his franchise. It required patience to get to this point, with three great fits sitting right in front of him.

The issue, of course, is how long they’ll sit there. Columbus already sounds willing to do nothing until next March. Boston, in a wide-open division, may have the most incentive to move quickly. But Brandon Carlo was the center of talks last January, and that went nowhere.

So, sure. Sakic laid out his rules and let the game come to him. But he gained no leverage and no better odds of anyone actually matching his extravagant price for Duchene.

The tides around Duchene’s inevitable exodus from Colorado have shifted, but whether they’ve actually moved anything forward is up for debate.