Canucks want to re-sign Erik Gudbranson, but why?

Vancouver Canucks defenseman Erik Gudbranson was expected to be one of the top names on the trade market this month. The team is in transition, he’s on an expiring contract, and there are always contenders in February willing to fork up assets for the potential missing piece to a Stanley Cup run.

However, that may not happen now because the Canucks are trying to sign Gudbranson to a long-term contract extension instead, according to Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre. It would be a puzzling decision for a team that needs to focus on building for the future.

Here’s more from general manager Jim Benning.

“He’s a physical, stay-at-home defenseman who helps us,” Benning said. “We have other defensemen who are more puck-moving guys, but we don’t have anyone else with Gudbranson’s style of play.

“I know he’s had some ups and downs, but until he got hurt he was playing well for us. As long as a player can play in today’s game, you’re always going to need a defensemen who can play physical, especially in our division. There’s always going to be room for a guy like that in your top six.”

Benning is right that the Canucks can use a guy like Gudbranson to eat minutes right now. Their defense has been in flux all season due to various injuries, and Gudbranson is an experienced, physical defenseman with a strong pedigree. He’s the kind of player that many teams still like to have around, not just Vancouver.

But for a franchise that’s moving on from the Sedin era to build around Brock Boeser and others, it’s fair to wonder why they wouldn’t want to sell high on a defenseman whose trade value would likely outweigh his value on the ice.

Obviously the specific terms of the extension weigh heavily here, but the Canucks wouldn’t exactly have much to lose by giving Gudbranson two or three more years at a similar cap hit to the $3.5 million he eats up now.

The team has just $27.1 million committed to six players for next season, per Cap Friendly, and it probably won’t compete for a Stanley Cup in the near future given top prospects like Elias Pettersson, Thatcher Demko, and Olli Juolevi still haven’t reached the NHL yet.

Even though it’s highly arguable whether Gudbranson is worth anything close to $3.5 million annually, the Canucks’ long-term plans likely wouldn’t be hindered much by re-signing him. The main downside would simply be that he’d have to keep playing, and it’s not readily apparent that a team playing Gudbranson for 17-20 minutes a game helps at all.

You probably notice by now that this section is mainly trying to justify a contract in the context of knowing he’s not worth it. That’s because, frankly, there’s little reason to believe he is. Gudbranson has just three points and an ugly 43 percent even-strength Corsi in 32 games this season. Even accounting for the way he’s used, those numbers are atrocious.

Among 181 NHL defensemen to play at least 400 minutes of 5-on-5 action, Gudbranson is 179th in Game Score per 60 minutes, according to Corsica. He’s also 179th in Corsi Relative, 172nd in xGF%, and 166th in points per 60. No matter how you slice it, his only contribution appears to be physicality.

Where should we even start? It’d be one thing to re-sign a middling defenseman to a $3-4 million cap hit when you have over $40 million in salary cap space. But add in the fact that Gudbranson would seemingly have trade value as a former top-three pick who brings that valued physicality from the back end, and it’s difficult to see how re-signing him is a smart move.

Two years ago, the Canucks gave up young forward Jared McCann, a second-round pick, and a fourth-round pick for Gudbranson. What if the team could get a similar package this month? What if it could get more?

It’s clear that many NHL teams value Gudbranson more than outsiders do for whatever reason, but given where Vancouver is as a franchise, that should be an opportunity to sell high for long-term assets, not lock up an overrated member of a middling defense that already has over $15 million tied up in four players for 2018-19.

The Canucks should be looking toward the future, and it’s hard to see how Gudbranson factors into that plan better than a haul of picks and/or prospects.

Based on the comments from Benning, it really does seem like the Canucks may prefer to re-sign Gudbranson than trade him. With that said, it’s still early February, and we have over four weeks until the trade deadline. A lot can change between now and then, including Vancouver’s intentions and the kinds of offers they receive for the defenseman.

But they clearly value Gudbranson’s toughness, for better or worse. Let’s peg the odds of an extension at 6/10.