Playing at home, the Capitals lost the first two games of their series with the Blue Jackets, both in overtime. The league’s playoff history said they had an 18 percent chance to pull off a comeback. Alex Ovechkin insisted they’d win the next two in Columbus, though, and now they have. A 4-1 win in Thursday’s Game 4 evened the series. The Capitals’ chances are up to 58 percent now, based on outcomes for other teams that have been in their position.
If Braden Holtby is back, so are the Capitals
The Capitals’ star goaltender of the past now looks like their star goaltender of the present. The Blue Jackets are in trouble.
Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images
The root cause of the shift in this series has a name. It’s Braden Holtby.
The series turned after Holtby, the Capitals’ 28-year-old former Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender, entered 40 minutes into Game 2.
He didn’t win that game, but things started to go better for the Caps after he arrived:
- In the 105 minutes of clock time this series before Holtby replaced Grubauer, the Capitals gave up eight goals out of 49 shots on net (a terrible .837 save percentage).
- In the 181 minutes since Holtby replaced Grubauer, the Capitals have given up four goals on 64 shots (an excellent .938 save percentage).
Holtby made enough saves in the two overtime periods in Game 3 to give Lars Eller a chance to break the ice and preserve Washington’s chances. In Game 4, he gave the Capitals what Grubauer couldn’t in the first two games: security.
For the first time in the series, the Capitals didn’t out-skate the Blue Jackets. The possession numbers were pretty even, with a slight edge to Columbus. But Holtby, time and again, stood tall. His Game 4 line was the one goal allowed on 24 shots. The Blue Jackets had 11 “high-danger” chances to score from around the goalmouth, and they scored on none. The only puck to get past Holtby was a shot through a screen that he couldn’t see.
The Capitals’ skaters have controlled the play all series. Now that their goalie is keeping pucks out of their net, the reward has come.
Washington has had the puck more than Columbus and had more chances to score. The Capitals have so far controlled 53 percent of the series’ total shot attempts, 54 percent of the shots on goal, 53 percent of the total scoring chances, and 63 percent of the high-danger chances. Games 1 and 2 were, in this way, not that different than Games 3 and 4. Washington has been sustaining offensive pressure the whole time.
Goaltending’s been the difference in the comeback — Washington’s, particularly. Columbus’ Sergei Bobrovsky hasn’t changed at all. He had a combined .920 save percentage in Games 1 and 2 and a .922 mark in Games 3 and 4. But the Capitals’ percentage jumped 11 points in the two games Holtby started. He’s the biggest reason this series turned on its head and why the Capitals are no longer dead men walking.
Benching Holtby for Grubauer to start the playoffs made sense, but to go anywhere, the Capitals were always going to need Holtby back.
Grubauer was way better than Holtby all season, and no one can blame Barry Trotz far starting the best-playing goalie on his roster to begin playoffs. The regular-season numbers for the two are jarring, but it’s true: Grubauer was almost a goal better per start.
Holtby’s best is better than Grubauer’s best, and the Capitals need to squeeze everything they can out of all of their stars if they want to go anywhere. When Holtby’s at the height of his powers, he’s a Vezina winner with a goals-against average around 2.15 and a save percentage in the mid .920s. When Grubauer’s at his best — actually, let’s cut that sentence there, because he’s never had to show anything for more than 35 games in a season. There’s no comparing what the two could bring the Caps in the right world.
Two strong games don’t prove Holtby is all the way back. But if he plays this way for a few more weeks, the Capitals are a top-tier Cup threat.
They have everything else they need. Ovechkin looks like a force. Playmaking centers Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov are still the best high-end offensive support he’s ever had in Washington. The defense has some holes, as do most defenses, but it has enough puck-movers to keep the Capitals in business on offense for long stretches.
These are the Capitals, and this is Washington, D.C., sports. There will be more terrifying moments, maybe as soon as Saturday afternoon’s Game 5 back in D.C. Still, if Holtby can give his teammates this kind of backstopping, who can’t the Capitals beat?
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