The Bruins are still in a good spot, all things considered.
The Leafs forced Game 7, and the Bruins have to be exhausted
The Bruins have pushed furiously to close out this series. It hasn’t been enough, and now their cushion’s gone.
Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
To the dubious extent that momentum is a thing that exists, the Maple Leafs have it now. They’ve won two potential closeout games to force a Game 7 in this Eastern Conference quarterfinal. The latest was a 3-1 triumph in an emotional Air Canada Centre on Monday. They’ll play the decisive game at 7:30 p.m. ET Wednesday (NBCSN, CBC).
But the Bruins are going home, where they’re great. They won 28 home games this year. The Leafs are going on the road, where they won 20, a shade less than 50 percent. Teams that fail to close out series on the road in Game 6s go on to win Game 7 about 60 percent of the time, because home-ice advantage in these spots is really real.
But the Bruins have to feel spent after the last two games.
They’ve tossed the kitchen sink at the Leafs twice in a row, both times with a chance to eliminate the team that finished just behind them in the Atlantic Division.
In Game 5, the Bruins did all these things, according to counts at Natural Stat Trick:
- Took 90 shot attempts to the Leafs’ 39
- Put 45 of those shots on net, compared to the Leafs’ 21
- Got 25 scoring chances to the Leafs’ 16
- Got 14 “high-danger” chances to the Leafs’ 8
- Got six power plays to the Leafs’ one
They minimized Auston Matthews, the young face of the Leafs’ franchise. They put out Zdeno Chara against Matthews as much as they could, and the wunderkind spent almost the entire game chasing the Bruins while they had the puck. The Bruins lost anyway, 4-3.
And in Game 6, the Bruins did these things:
- Took 72 shot attempts to the Leafs’ 43
- Put 33 of those on net, compared to the Leafs’ 30
- Got 28 scoring chances to the Leafs’ 20
The Leafs counter-attacked well and got three more high-danger chances (10-7) than Boston did. The Bruins’ shots-on-goal advantage was so small in Game 6 as to not be a big deal, and the Leafs had one more power play.
But again, Boston had the puck most of the night and lost anyway. The Bruins couldn’t solve Frederik Andersen more than the one time, and the Leafs scored some nice goals. A turning back-hander by Mitch Marner in the second period stood up as the winner.
The Bruins had a 24-12 edge in shot attempts in the third. They were as relentless as at any point in these two games. They still couldn’t stuff anything into the net.
In Game 7, expect the Bruins to dominate possession again. But that hasn’t mattered lately, and there’s no guarantee it will on Wednesday.
The Bruins are especially hard to deal with when they’re in Boston. They have the world’s best defensive center in Patrice Bergeron, and getting the last line change gives Bruce Cassidy the chance to choose Bergeron’s prey. He’s been great at home in this series, with five assists in three games. More critically, when he’s been on the ice, the Bruins have controlled 76 percent of the shot attempts and 80 percent of the scoring chances. He’ll play a lot against Matthews and William Nylander, and he should contain them well.
Still, all the usual disclaimers about the volatility of a Game 7 apply. That Boston has played so well the last two games is encouraging, but that it hasn’t gotten rewarded yet is disconcerting. It would happen eventually if these teams were playing 10 more games, but they’re not. They’re playing one more, and the Leafs will go into that one game with the confidence that even two of the Bruins’ best efforts haven’t been enough to sink them.
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