The team favored to win the Super Bowl is 0-5 straight up and against the spread in the last five Super Bowl matchups. The New England Patriots will try to buck that trend as a favorite at Super Bowl LI against the Atlanta Falcons.
Super Bowl 51 odds: Favored Patriots look to buck Super Bowl trends against the Falcons
Tom Brady and the New England Patriots opened as the betting favorite for Super Bowl LI, but the chalk team hasn’t fared well at the big game in the past five years.
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New England opened as a 3-point betting favorite in Houston at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. In the last four meetings between these two teams, the Patriots hold a 4-0 SU and ATS advantage.
With their 36-17 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship, the Patriots improved to 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS over their last nine games and a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS over their last seven.
New England has won in three of its last five Super Bowl appearances, but is just 1-4 ATS in those five games. All six of New England’s Super Bowls in the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick era have been decided by four points or less. The Patriots are 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against NFC opponents.
No team has produced more money for its backers this season than New England, which is 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS in 18 games played this year, per the OddsShark NFL Database.
Betting Line / Total: New England -3 / 58.5 Points
Trend: The total has gone OVER in three of the last four Super Bowl matchups.
Trend: The favored team is 0-5 SU and ATS in the last five Super Bowl matchups.
The Falcons put up another dominant offensive performance in the NFC Championship Game, defeating the Green Bay Packers, 44-21. Atlanta is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in its last six games and is averaging 39 points per game over that stretch.
Historically, the Falcons haven’t fared well as a playoff underdog with an 0-5 SU and ATS record in their last five instances as one. But more recently, Atlanta is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog overall.
The total for Super Bowl LI is set at 58.5 points, the highest total in the game’s history. The OVER is 8-0 in Atlanta’s last eight games and 3-1 in the last four Super Bowl matchups.
The Patriots have the best scoring defense in the NFL, allowing 15.6 points per game, and they’ll face the best scoring offense in the NFL in a Falcons teams that averages 33.8 points per game. Whether or not New England can solve Atlanta’s offense could be what decides this Super Bowl.
New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons
When: Sunday, Feb. 5, 6:30 p.m. ET
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
