Ranking the eight 2026 World Cup quarterfinalists

The Quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup are set.

The Round of 16 drew to a close on Tuesday with a pair of dramatic matches. Lionel Messi and Argentina kept their hopes alive for a repeat with a thrilling comeback win over Egypt. Switzerland joined La Albiceleste later on in the day dispatching Colombia on penalties.

Thankfully, fans get a chance to catch their breath on Wednesday, as the schedule goes dark for a day until the Quarterfinals kick off Thursday with a 2022 semifinal rematch between France and Morocco.

That also gives us a chance to take stock of the eight teams remaining. Here they are, ranked by their chances to win the 2026 World Cup by SB Nation staff.

It’s neat that the Swiss made it this far, but it’s also astonishing that they made it this far. The team is more or less a monolith with everything running through Granit Xhaka, the team is still retooling following the retirements of stalwart stars Xherdan Shaqiri and Yann Sommer.

It leaves us with a team that is weak on paper, but finds itself in its best position since 1954. At this point in the tournament everyone is bringing complete teams to the pitch with a variety of ways to attack from all areas, but Switzerland is lacking. They have an outside chance of continuing to make noise if Breel Embolo comes alive, but it’s still an outside chance.

The issues with putting Belgium higher on this list are twofold: The team is old in a lot of key areas when it comes to their superstar talent, but more importantly they play Spain.

Sure, anything can happen when it comes to the World Cup, but realistically we saw this team have a massive emotional dump in the build-up to their game vs. the USMNT surrounding the Folarin Balogun drama—and it’s unclear if they have the mettle to find the gear needed to keep up with the speed, and prowess of their next opponent.

A fascinating wrinkle to this team has been manager Rudi Garcia’s decision to bench Kevin De Bruyne. It was a gamble that paid off, ensuring the 35-year-old would be as fresh as possible for the quarterfinals. In order for Belgium to have any chance of winning, they’ll need their star to be at his best.

It very much feels like everything has to go right, from team selection to performances to moments, for Belgium to advance further.

It’s easy to see why Morocco were one of the sweetheart picks to surprise in the 2026 World Cup, and they haven’t let anyone down. Their astonishingly good defense, dictated by Achraf Hakimi opens up a suffocating attack focused on maintaining the ball for as long as possible, breaking down their opponents’ shape, only for Hakimi to deliver picture-perfect crosses.

This tournament also brought about the international emergence of Ismael Saibari, who is about to become a household name after transferring to Bayern Munich in early July. With depth across all of their positions, and playing a relatively old-school style of play, Morocco brings something else to the table compared to the rest of the field. That uniqueness could make them a team capable of continuing to shock the world and run even further in this tournament.

Of course… a date with France is up next.

Judging by the chatter on the ride to camp this morning, Erling Haaland has captured the attention of the tween set here in the United States…

But while the world catching up with Haaland’s talent on the pitch—and his charisma away from it—feels overdue it gives Norway a chance in the Quarterfinals, and beyond. The Manchester City striker has surpassed even the loftiest of expectations in his inaugural World Cup, with a goal in each of his four appearances and seven goals overall. And Norway’s win over Brazil should put the rest of the field on notice.

Not to be overlooked is Martin Ødegaard. Arsenal’s captain finally looks fit and comfortable dictating the tempo in possession. His decision-making and finishing in the final third still leaves something to be desired, but he has the tools to unlock defenses at a moment’s notice.

Norway’s defense will be tested against England, and that is probably their biggest area of concern. But if they survive that test, watch out.

To win a World Cup, sometimes you need to suffer.

England did that and more on Sunday night.

Up against the elements, the history, a red card, a Mexican side willing to leave it all on the pitch, and the supporters in the stands ready to do the same, England found a way through to the Quarterfinals with an exhausting 3-2 win in Mexico City. While Harry Kane likely grabs all the headlines, it was a masterful performance from Jude Bellingham, on both ends of the pitch.

Yes, the two quick goals were what England needed, but down to 10 men for the bulk of the second half, England also needed Bellingham on the defensive end. His late clearance to help preserve England’s lead will go down in Three Lions lore should they go on to bring it home.

The road is certainly hard. Up next is a date with Norway and Haaland, and should England survive that match Lionel Messi could be waiting in the wings. But on Sunday night in Mexico City, the Three Lions showed they have what it takes to go the distance.

The reigning champions rode their luck against Egypt in the Round of 16. A missed penalty, controversial VAR decision and a 92nd-minute winner doesn’t even begin to describe the game. Lionel Scaloni has thrown different looks at opponents this tournament, though it wouldn’t be surprising if Argentina go back to basics after their Round of 32 and 16 performances.

La Albiceleste unquestionably had the easiest run to the Semifinals on paper, but that didn’t discourage Cape Verde and Egypt from taking the game to them. If there’s one glaring hole to identify, it’s Argentina’s inability to stretch the pitch in attack like Angel Di Maria did in 2022. Instead, they’re congesting the midfield in a variety of ways. Their defense should be a strong suit, but has uncharacteristically conceded seven goals in three games against 27th, 63rd and 67th ranked countries in the world.

As long as Argentina has Lionel Messi, the team should never be counted out. The magician scored and assisted late in the second half to advance, shrugging off his second missed penalty of the tournament. Until proven otherwise, Argentina should be in the conversation for finalists at minimum.

Spain has one of the most dynamic players in the world in phenom Lamine Yamal. But La Roja are much, much more than a one man band. They are a true cohesive unit, creative both on the ball and away from it. Mikel Oyarzabal has carved out a role in the attack for Spain, leading the way with four goals at this World Cup after his most productive club season yet.

But what might make them truly dangerous is the fact that they have yet to concede at this World Cup. Five matches, zero goals. And while keeper Unai Simón was not truly tested until the Round of 16, he kept yet another clean sheet against Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal in that match.

Do they also have the world’s most dangerous super sub in Mikel Merino? His knack for a clutch goal is truly remarkable.

Explosive on offense, stout in their own end. That makes Spain a threat to make a very deep run.

Kylian Mbappé alone might make France the most dangerous team in the tournament.

But Didier Deschamps has more talent to draw upon than just Mbappé.

Mbappé’s gravity certainly helps. His dangerous presence just outside the box draws the eyes of every opponent on the pitch, as well as every set of eyes in the stadium. That certainly creates opportunities for players on the flanks such as Ousmane Dembélé (four goals) and Bradley Barcola (two goals).

However, the straw that truly stirs the drink is Michael Olise. The Bayern midfielder leads all players at the 2026 World Cup with five assists heading into the Quarterfinals, and it is ability to see plays develop that sets him apart, and makes France so dangerous. Like a chess grandmaster who can predict checkmate 15 moves ahead of time, Olise’s ability to dissect a defense and find that last pass has led to moments like this:

Again, Mbappé alone makes France dangerous.

But he is not alone.