Euro 2012 Qualifying Review: Fourth Round Defined By Disappointments

To put the upset in perspective, the last time Azerbaijan posted a meaningful victory was March 2007. Then, Emin Imamaliev’s 83rd minute goal gave Azerbaijan a 1-0 win over Finland, their only victory of Euro 2008 qualifying. It was by that same score, this time with a goal from Rashad Sadygov, that the Azerbaijani’s won on Tuesday, matching their win total for the entirety of their 2010 World Cup qualifying campaign. That win came against Leichtenstein.

For those who watched Russia lose their World Cup spot to Slovenia, the legend of Guus Hiddink has long been an old wives tale. Since few saw that playoff series, the image of Hiddink at Stamford Bridge, Hiddink in the semifinals of Euro 2008 dominates memories. In truth, it’s been some time since Hiddink’s lived-up to his hype, and although his reputation for building national team programs is deserved, the idea of him being a master tactician is a canard. While Turkey’s players deserve much of the blame for Tuesday’s failure, Hiddink gets paid too much to let results like that happen. It’s Azerbaijan, after all.

Beyond the Azerbaijanis, one of the major beneficiaries of Turkey’s loss was Austria, whose 4-4 draw in Brussels leave them alone in Group A’s second place. The biggest story from that match, beyond the eight goals, was a talented Belgian squad’s inability to get three much-needed points.

Having already lost to Germany and Turkey, Belgium’s hopes of taking second place were tied to holding serve against Austria and, later in qualifying, defeating the Turks in Brussels. In stoppage time, it looked like the Belgians had taken the first step, overcoming two deficits to hold a 4-3 lead. That step turned into a trip when German-born striker Martin Harnik, subbed on two minutes earlier, equalized for the 10-man Austrians, vaulting them into second place.

Despite the expectations for his young team, coach Georges Leekens has gotten only four points through as many rounds. Belgium sits fourth, having been unable to take advantage of Turkey’s stumble, allowing Austria to pull themselves into (and to the top of) the race for second.

Belgium’s results engender questions as to why defenders Daniel van Buyten and Jelle van Damme aren’t in a team that’s allowing four goals. Why isn’t one of the best goalkeepers in Italy’s Serie A, Jean Francois Gillet, starting? Is Leekens guiding his team in the right direction?

Few would argue that Austria has Belgium’s talent, and while there are unique challenges for a coach tasked with convincing a young team that they should be performing beyond their experience, coaches are paid to do such things. As is the case with Hiddink’s disappointing results, Leekens’ inability to get the better performances out of the Belgians forces some scrutiny.

Vladimir Petrovic deserves similar scrutiny for letting Estonia beat Serbia on Friday, but that result will now be overshadowed by what happened in Genoa on Tuesday. Rioting Serbia fans forced the team’s match against Italy to be abandoned shortly after kick-off, a decision which will likely lead to a 3-0 win being awarded to the Azzurri. Though the personal risk involved in such idiocy deserves more consideration than a flippant response, it’s become an understatement to note Serbian football is falling to sudden and sad depth, both on and off the pitch.

In light of those problems, it seems a literary irony that Montenegro has ascended to the peak of their young program’s history. With Tuesday’s 0-0 draw against England at Wembley, the Montenegrans sit on 10 points, top of Group G, with half of their qualifying matches completed. The group’s lowest rated team (per coefficient) at the tournament’s, Montenegro has gone all 360 minutes of qualifying without allowing a goal. More importantly, they’ve thrust England back into a post-World Cup crisis of confidence that could pave the roads to Poland and Ukraine.

For the Three Lions, it’s time for a difficult decision. In a five team group, there is little margin for error, and after being drawn by Montenegro on Tuesday, Fabio Capello has used all of his. Capello’s the most expensive international manager in the world, and England’s problems go far beyond his leadership, but after Tuesday’s disappointment, the Football Association should consider whether Don Fabio has solutions. The team’s talented is not playing for its coach, and Capello’s lack of tactical imagination hints he may not be searching for solutions. While making him a scapegoat would absolve a collection of players who’ve yet to explain why they aren’t giving a better effort, Capello’s firing would shake-up a stagnant and failing team. With Montenegro now in Group G’s pole position, England needs a shake-up to avoid missing their second straight European championships.

The Lay of the Land

Though the label would imply the group should be rather static, there have been a number of changes to my “shoe-ins” since Sunday. Two teams have dropped-out, and another surfaced despite having yet to prove they’re very good.

Shoe-ins: Germany (Group A), Italy (Group C), Netherlands (Group E), Spain (Group I)

Italy should get three points from Tuesday’s abandoned match. Combined with the “strength” of their group, it’s hard to see how they don’t finish top of Group C. In that way, Group C could lay out just like the Azzurri’s World Cup qualifying group. They’ll finish top but we will have little idea as to whether they’re actually any good.

This group is composed of the teams on track to win their group as well as those who would be leading contenders to emerge from the playoffs. From the nine teams here, the quartet that impressed this weekend - Russia, France, Croatia and Portugal - continue to entice, picking up nine more points on Tuesday (with Croatia having the day off).

Turkey is still a win over Austria from controlling second place in Group A. Northern Ireland’s stumble at the Faroe Islands can be overcome, while Sweden’s disappointment in Amsterdam can’t move them off the path to Group E’s playoff spot.