San Jose's Chris Wondolowski has won the MLS Golden Boot and been named a finalist for the MVP award. Incredibly he's achieved his fantastic record of 18 goals scored in 28 matches spending about half of his time on the right wing. The Red Bulls may have three big name Designated Players, but coming into this fixture, the story is Wondolowski's scintillating form.
Major League Soccer, Playoffs Preview: It’s Not All About Wondolowski Versus The DPs
Despite Wondo's hot streak, it's fair to say that San Jose has limped into the playoffs a bit. They were demolished by Kansas City in their last regular season game and have suffered recent losses to Houston and Chicago. They won two games in October, but their wins came against D.C. United and Chivas USA, two of the worst teams in the league. The last time they defeated a fellow playoff side was Aug. 21, when they upset the Los Angeles Galaxy.
New York are coming into the playoffs on slightly better form, having captured first place in the Eastern Conference for the regular season despite trailing Columbus for most of the year. Their recent wins over the Colorado Rapids and Los Angeles Galaxy were great results, as was their draw against Real Salt Lake. The Red Bulls have molded themselves into a deep team with their acquisitions in the last year, but that depth will be seriously tested in the first leg.
Thierry Henry, Tony Tchani, and Salou Ibrahim have all been ruled out for the match due to injury. This likely means Carl Robinson will step into a starting role while the pressure will be on Rafael Marquez and Mehdi Ballouchy to perform. The loss of Tchani shouldn't result in a massive tactical shift for Hans Backe, but Robinson is not as foward thinking or athletic as the young Cameroonian.
San Jose have struggled all year to find the right formation and target man, but the additions of Sam Cronin, Khari Stephenson and Geovanni in the middle of the season seems to have forced them into their answer. Cronin and Stephenson are fantastic holding midfielders, while Geovanni is a great roaming playmaker who plays his best football between a lone striker and a holding midfielder or two. Ryan Johnson has proven to be a much better target man than both Scott Sealy and Cornell Glen, while Wondolowski has proven he can still score when he starts the match at right midfield. It took a long time, but it appears that San Jose are finally a team who know what they want to do tactically and are comfortable with their setup.
Since these teams both have significant talent on both sides of the ball and are expected to utilize extremely similar tactics, it will be interesting to see who blinks first between Backe and Frank Yallop. If one team gets an early goal either through a moment of brilliance or a bad mistake, it should be possible for the team in the lead to neutralize the attack of the other side if they want to play very defensively and neither side makes any significant tactical adjustment. We could be in for a long, boring series where the two teams cancel each other out, but if someone scores early to change the complexion of either leg, it could get wild in a hurry.
Probable Lineups
New York Red Bulls (4-4-1-1): GK Bouna Condoul - DF Roy Miller, Tim Ream, Carlos Mendes, Chris Albright - MF Joel Lindpere, Carl Robinson, Dane Richards - AMF Mehdi Ballouchy - FW Juan Pablo Angel
San Jose Earthquakes (4-4-1-1): GK Jon Busch - DF Tim Ward, Brandon McDonald, Jason Hernandez, Chris Leitch - MF Bobby Convey, Khari Stephenson, Sam Cronin, Chris Wondolowski - AMF Geovanni - FW Ryan Johnson
Key Matchups
- Lindpere vs. Wondolowski - Backe has experimented with Ballouchy at left midfield and Joel Lindpere in the middle, but against San Jose and Wondolowski, that seems improbable. Lindpere's work rate is going to be needed on the left side of midfield for New York against the league's Golden Boot winner. Wondolowski likes to cut inside a lot, so he might become Tim Ream's problem on a regular basis, but Lindpere's play can go a long way in keeping Wondolowski from getting the ball in the first place. Lindpere is no slouch going forward either, and Wondolowski will need to up his game tracking back this week.
- Angel vs. Hernandez/McDonald - Juan Pablo Angel has stated that he's leaving New York at the end of the season, but don't expect that to stop him from giving 100% effort in the playoffs. He's not happy with his situation at the Red Bulls and he's getting up there in age, but he's still one of the best center forwards in MLS and he'll still be a handful for Jason Hernandez and Brandon McDonald. He's one of the most complete players in the league, and the San Jose center back pairing are both not on his talent level and untested in the playoffs. Keeping the ball from getting to Angel in dangerous areas will probably be easier than stopping him once he's there.
- Holding midfielders vs. attacking midfielders - Both teams will play an attacking midfielder behind a striker and both teams will be playing two holding midfielders. These match-ups are going to be a huge key to the match. If either Ballouchy or Geovanni is given lots of time and space to operate on the ball, it could be dangerous for the opposing team. Looking at the setups of the teams, it seems unlikely that either player is going to be allowed to have much of an influence on the game.
History you should know
Home field advantage is going to matter a lot more to New York than San Jose. RBNY had a +9 goal differential at home and an even goal difference on the road. San Jose had a +2 goal difference at home and -1 on the road. However, San Jose had the same number of goals scored between home and away while RBNY actually scored less. They are a much, much better defensive team at Red Bull Arena than they are on the road.
Additionally, this is San Jose’s first playoff appearance since their return to the league in 2008. This isn’t the same Red Bulls team that went to an MLS Cup final a couple of years back, but they’re a team with players that have more big game experience than San Jose, both in MLS and abroad. San Jose might have a bit of the “happy to be here” mindset.
Head to Head
The first match between these two teams took place in May with San Jose defeating New York 4-0 at Buck Shaw Stadium. Don't read too much into it, though. Luke Sassano, who is no longer good enough to make New York's bench, was sent off in the 12th minute. This match also featured Seth Stammler and Ibrahim Salou in the starting lineup. It's almost pointless to take anything from that match and apply it to their playoff matchup. More recently, on Aug. 28, New York dominated San Jose in a 2-0 win at Red Bull Arena. However, that match featured Henry and Tchani who are both unavailable for at least the first leg. Geovanni and Ryan Johnson did not start that match for San Jose, and the Quakes probably would have fared better with them in the lineup. So basically, there's very little we can take from the two regular season matches between these two teams.
The Earthquakes will advance if: Wondolowski stays red hot and their defensive midfielders play to the best of their ability.
The Red Bulls will advance if: Angel and Ballouchy have chemistry with each other and the rest of the team is effective at getting them the ball in dangerous areas.
Pick: The Red Bulls are too talented to lose this series. Even if the teams completely nullify each other tactically, the distribution of Tim Ream and Rafael Marquez from deep positions is an element that the Quakes don’t possess. Additionally, Angel is better than Johnson, so if each team’s tactics cause the other to get frustrated and start playing direct, RBNY have the advantage. 2-1 to RBNY on aggregate.
Match Card: Red Bulls-Quakes Game 1
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