UEFA Champions League Review, Tuesday: Who’s In, Who’s Out, And Who’s Waiting

Tuesday was one of the more exciting days of this year’s Champions League, with a spectacular comeback in Rome highlighting the day’s eight matches. There, Roma overturned a two goal, halftime deficit, scoring twice past the 80th minute to beat previously perfect Bayern Munich.

Roma’s inability to find a fourth goal (and turn around the -2 goal difference versus Bayern) means they can’t catch München in Group E. Silver lining: Roma’s negotiated their biggest remaining challenge and look set to hold-off Basel for the group’s second knock-out stage spot.

There was more excitement in London, where an early goal from visiting Zilina put the Slovakian champions up in the 19th minute. Having never recorded a Champions League point (this being their first appearance), Zilina was threatening to breakthrough against a team that’s been perfect.

That story persisted after Daniel Sturridge had scored in the 51st minute, but when Florent Malouda slammed home the match winner in the 86th, Chelsea had their fifth win in five. Zilina was handed their fifth loss.

Chelsea clinched Group F with their win at Stamford Bridge, but they weren’t the only team to lock down its place on Tuesday. For better or worse, nine of the 16 teams in action saw their group places solidified, with only three knock-out round spots left undecided from groups E, F, G, and H.

Real Madrid gave the day’s most convincing performance, winning 4-0 at Ajax. That they won was no surprise, given Ajax’s poor recent form, but the ease with which they won was impressive. Beautiful first half goals from Karim Benzema and Alvaro Arbeloa gave the Merengues breathing room by intermission, and a second half brace from Cristiano Ronaldo gave Real Madrid Group G.

Los Blancos join Chelsea and Bayern as group winners, meaning each club will be drawn against second place teams for the first knock-out stage round. If form holds on Wednesday and through group stage’s last round, those three mega clubs should avoid the likes of Barcelona and Manchester United in the Round of 16.

In a bit of a surprise, two teams have also locked-up second place spots after five rounds. Olympique Marseille got revenge for their 1-0 home loss to Spartak by routing the Russians in Moscow, 3-0. They sit on nine points, six behind Chelsea. While they’re only three points ahead of Spartak, they’ve gotten more points in the teams’ head-to-head matches, securing the tiebreaker for Marseille.

Milan’s second place finish is less ambiguous, up four points on Ajax in Group G. Their 2-0 win at Auxerre moved them to eight before the Dutch club’s visit to the San Siro. Goals from Zlatan Ibrahimovic and substitute Ronaldinho completed the Rossoneri’s sweep of France’s runners-up.

Spartak’s loss means the People’s Team will head to Europa. Their six points is enough to distance them from Zilina, but with l’OM holding the tiebreaker, the Russians will have nothing to play for in the sixth round. All four places in Group F are settled.

So Zilina’s out, obviously, but they’re not the only ones. Partizan’s 3-0 home loss to Shakhtar eliminates the Serbians. Like Zilina, they’ve yet to register a point. Romanians CFR Cluj have points, beating FC Basel earlier in the tournament, but after their loss in Switzerland on Tuesday, they’re also destined for a fourth.

That leaves seven teams with futures to be determined next round, the most interesting scenario being in Group H, where three teams could finish on 12 points. We’ll get to that last, as we have a Europa League place and a knock-out stage spot up-for-grabs in the other groups.

Group G

Real Madrid and Milan are locked-in to first and second. On December 8, Ajax is at Milan while Auxerre is at Real Madrid with the group’s third place, Europa League spot on the line.

With four points, Ajax has an advantage, if only a slight one, as Auxerre but would win the tiebreaker. AJA would have a superior goal difference in all group stage matches should they draw in Madrid while Ajax loses in Milan. If Auxerre holds out for a draw at the Bernabeu (against a team with nothing to play for), Ajax needs a point at the San Siro. If Auxerre wins, Ajax must win.

Group E

Roma’s nine points means they need only one at CFR Cluj to clinch second place. If they stumble, Basel is through with a win in Munich. Basel’s superior goal difference in head-to-head matches with Roma gives them the tiebreaker.

Group H

On the surface - the very, very top, superficial level - this is potential chaos, and I love it: the idea of a team with 12 points going to Europa League, the group having to be decided by the three-way tiebreaker scenario. Unfortunately, it’s pretty clear how things would play-out should that happen, but let’s indulge, shall we:

First, check off the easiest scenario. If Shakhtar beats Braga in Donetsk, Shakhtar and Arsenal are through (in that order). With Donetsk having won 3-0 at the AXA, they’ll be heavy favorites to get three in Ukraine.

Should Shakhtar draw, they win the group. Arsenal gets second with a win or draw against Partizan, sending Braga to Europa League. If Arsenal loses to Partizan, Braga goes to the knock-out stage.

Now, the fun one. What if Braga wins in Donetsk? If that happens, Arsenal is sent to Europa with a loss or a draw, but let’s face it - they’re going to beat Partizan at the Emirates. That would create a three-way tie at the top of Group H, all teams finishing with 12 points.

In that scenario, Arsenal wins the group. Each club would have six points in matches played against each other, but thanks to Arsenal’s 6-0 win over Braga to open group play, their goal difference is untouchable. Braga would have to post a 14-goal win over Shakhtar to finish first, and that assumes Arsenal only beats Partizan 1-0.

Braga can still finish second with a win in Donetsk, but they’re still going to have to blow Shakhtar out. The Ukranians hold a seven goal advantage in difference accumulated in matches amongst the three sides, meaning Braga will need to win by four.

If they don’t, Arsenal wins the group. Shakhtar finishes second.