Rumblings of Mexico leaving CONCACAF and joining CONMEBOL began to circle on Tuesday and FIFA President Sepp Blatter essentially admitted that it would be something at least up for consideration in saying that the situation was "delicate." In 1996 there was talk about the two confederations joining, but if true, this is the most serious discussion to date about a shift in CONCACAF and CONMEBOL.
Might Mexico Ditch CONCACAF For CONMEBOL?
With Mexico being one of the two dominant teams in CONCACAF, it makes this discussion all the more important with implications reaching far beyond just Mexico. The United States would be without their top rival and unless they meet in a World Cup or Confederations Cup, the the U.S. and Mexico would never play each other in a competitive match. CONCACAF as a whole would be severely weakened and after campaigning to have their number of World Cup spots upped from 3.5 to four in 2014, they would likely have a battle on their hands not to have their number of spots dropped from 3.5 if Mexico were to leave. It would also bring up the possibility of the two confederations merging again, something that has been bandied about for two decades now without much real traction.
If Mexico were to make the switch, they would find themselves in a very different situation than they are currently in. Whereas it now takes a shock for the Mexicans to not qualify for the World Cup, they would have a serious battle every four years just to qualify for the World Cup in CONMEBOL. Travel would be taxing as well for both club and country, but it would do a lot of good for the Mexicans. They would ditch the unimportant Gold Cup for the prestigious Copa America, gain a lot more respect and credibility in confederation name alone and the Mexican Primera Division would undoubtedly rise in stature by CONMEBOL association alone. Most of all, it would be a financial boon for the Mexicans at both the club and country level.
Such a move wouldn’t be completely unprecedented. Israel, Azerbaijan and Australia are among a handful of countries that play outside the confederation they would normally be geographically assigned to for various reasons. The question is what it would do to CONCACAF. The United States would be in a bad spot and the rest of the confederation is very dependent on being carried by the U.S. and Mexico, more so Mexico. Attendance at the Gold Cup would plummet without the Mexicans and that tournament provides a lot of revenue for the confederation.
If Mexico were to make the move, the question of whether CONCACAF and CONMEBOL should merge would undoubtedly come up. If CONCACAF loses Mexico they would be better off just playing with CONMEBOL full time. Of course CONMEBOL might have issues with it, but if the money were divided up so the better performing teams (South American teams, U.S. and Mexico predominantly) getting a larger share, they might be able to be convinced because of the revenue increase by adding huge markets like the U.S. and Mexico.
Any talk of Mexico leaving CONCACAF for CONMEBOL is very early and nothing is close to done, but it is plausible. It would have a huge impact on several different parties and would be a massive change to football in the Western Hemisphere.
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