Transfer nonsense filter: Bale to United? Rooney to Chelsea?
Assessing the likelihood of the latest transfer rumours, including Manchester United’s record bid for Gareth Bale, Chelsea’s pursuit of Wayne Rooney, and Liverpool’s interest in Xherdan Shaqiri.
The big news this week comes via the Mirror, who report that United are set to make a £60m bid for Gareth Bale as their marquee signing to kick off the David Moyes era.
The problem there is Daniel Levy’s extreme reluctance to sell in this window, previously rebuffing Real Madrid by insisting that even a bid of £80m wouldn’t be considered. Yet there may be hope for United - the rumour is known to be pretty well-sourced, so there is presumably some encouragement from somewhere that the Red Devils have to believe a move is possible. There’s the prospect of Real getting back in on the deal if it starts to look like Bale could move, but given that they’ve already spent heavily this window, it seems unlikely.
Ultimately, Levy still seems to hold all the cards and if he wants to play hardball then there’s not a whole lot United could do, but it’s impossible to gauge the accuracy of those sort of on-record comments. If it does happen, it’s hard to see it being a swift affair - Bale will surely need to force the issue himself. Tottenham are reportedly ready to double his wages, but should he reject the contract offer, things could be different, and this one could drag on if both sides are determined to get their way.
Odds: Doesn’t appear at all likely at the moment, but there could be developments.
Wayne Rooney to Chelsea?
As covered in-depth on our Manchester United blog, The Busby Babe, there was a lot of smoke and mirrors from both sides over this deal, and the most likely scenario is that United genuinely don’t want to sell to Chelsea. At all.
It looks increasingly likely that Rooney will indeed be leaving in this window, but reported interest from Arsenal, Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain has yet to materialise in anything tangible. That could well change very soon, but if it doesn't, then United will surely be more inclined to listen to the offer from the Blues.
There’s also the prospect that the two clubs play each other a few days before the window ends - should United decide to sell to Chelsea, they may wish to drag it out until after that date. This one is a long way from being resolved, and at present, Chelsea aren’t in a great position, but if they end up being the only show in town, it’s surely likely.
Odds: Difficult to see Rooney staying, but United will look for any suitor other than Chelsea.
Xherdan Shaqiri to Liverpool on loan?
Liverpool have been pursuing Shaqiri with greater intent ever since Thiago signed for Bayern Munich, reportedly. It makes sense, since it leaves the winger with a difficult task to break into that midfield, but the party line from Bavaria is that the Reds are wasting their time. Karl-Heinz Rummenigge has stated that Liverpool didn’t make an offer, that the club aren’t willing to sell or loan him out, and that Guardiola rates the player highly.
If Bayern were dealing with a wantaway player who was likely to leave permanently, we could take that with a grain of salt, but it doesn’t make quite as much sense to issue such a firm denial if they’re only looking to loan him out. Based on that, the prospect of a temporary switch to Merseyside seems unlikely - it’d probably take a lot of money to get the player out of Bayern, and Liverpool aren’t going to be doing that anytime soon.
Odds: Appears to be dead, unless the player forces the issue, which is unlikely.
Luiz Gustavo to Chelsea?
This makes a lot of sense for both teams: Gustavo is finding it hard to get into Bayern’s midfield, to which Thiago has just been added. Chelsea need a proper holding midfielder. So a deal for the Brazilian should, in theory, be a good arrangement for all clubs.
There's a problem, however. While Thiago has been added, Pep Guardiola seems intent on playing Javi Martinez as a centre-back, leaving the club with no cover for Bastian Schweinsteiger as a holding midfielder should Gustavo be allowed to leave. Secondly, Bayern probably aren't that desperate for the money. And thirdly, the source appears to be TalkSPORT, hardly the most reliable.
Odds: While this seems to make a lot of sense at first, it’s difficult to see anything concrete materialising anytime soon.
Andre-Pierre Gignac to Newcastle?
Reports from both England and France suggest that Newcastle will make a bid for Marseille’s Andre-Pierre Gignac as they look to bolster their forward ranks.
Newcastle certainly need a striker, with Papiss Cisse reportedly on his way out over a controversy surrounding the Toon's Wonga shirt sponsorship, but Gignac would be something of a gamble. It's possible that he'd be the more unreliable, shot-in-the-dark purchase next to the more known quantity of Darren Bent. While Gignac's been around for a while, he's been very inconsistent over recent years, and could struggle to adapt to England. Yet on form he can be a striker of immense quality, which the Magpies will be banking on.
This one seems like it could well suit every party, and a bid could be put in very soon.
Odds: Appears well-sourced and likely to happen.
