For the third consecutive season, Arsenal face the exact same scenario in the Champions League's Round of 16. After losing the opening leg of their tie against Bayern Munich, they're tasked with pulling off an extremely difficult comeback. They've come close, but just one goal short of pulling it off in the last two seasons, against this Bayern side and AC Milan.
Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal: Last year leaves Gunners a glimmer of hope
No one expects Arsenal to pull off a comeback on Tuesday, nor should they. But they’ve come close before, and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain looks set to have a moment any ‘big’ game now.
Mike Hewitt
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Against Milan, they were aided by the fact that the return leg was at home, but they also went into that leg trailing by four goals. This year is, at least statistically, their easiest task yet. Instead of having to overcome a four-goal deficit or last year’s two-goal deficit against a team that scored three away goals, Arsenal only have to score twice at the Allianz Arena to force extra time.
Of course, they’ll be doing that without some of their best players, as is usually the case for the Gunners for a reason unbeknownst to everyone. Their injury list is ridiculously long and they’re down to their second choice goalkeeper and third choice left back. Bayern, meanwhile, has everyone available to them.
Picking out Arsene Wenger's lineup is simple. Things might change a bit if Laurent Koscielny isn't able to play, but otherwise, Pep Guardiola knows exactly what he's up against. The only question mark is up top, where Olivier Giroud will probably start again after his excellent performance off the bench against Everton at the weekend, though there is a theory roaming around the internets that Arsenal's best off with letting Yaya Sanogo soften up defenses with his physicality before Giroud and his poaching instincts are introduced into the game.
Bayern's lineup is an entirely different case, given Guardiola's tendency to rotate his lineup heavily and pick certain players based on what he's trying to accomplish. His lineup from the weekend and his previous rotation patterns leave no hints, but if you're a fan of another club, you are absolutely allowed to be angry that he will probably leave Javi Martinez on the bench, along with three of Thomas Müller, Arjen Robben, Mario Götze, Xherdan Shaqiri, Toni Kroos, Thiago Alcantara and Mario Mandžukić.
The odds are stacked against Arsenal, but they’ve made ties like this one interesting before. Could this be the moment for someone to announce themselves as a superstar for the Gunners? Say, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain?
First leg score
Arsenal 0-2 Bayern Munich. Considering that Arsenal had their goalkeeper sent off, they did pretty well.
Team news
Pep Guardiola has enough talent at his disposal that he could easily withstand about eight injuries and still field one of the five best teams in the world. And yet, he has all of the players who have been called first choice for Bayern at any point in the last two years at his disposal. Only Holger Badstuber is out, because Holger Badstuber is always out. Can someone please get this dude a bionic knee?
It's a different story at Arsenal, as it always is, because #ArsenalDNA. The long list of missing players includes Aaron Ramsey, Jack Wilshere, Theo Walcott, Abou Diaby, Kim Källstrom, Kieran Gibbs and Nacho Monreal. You might have noticed that those last two are both left backs. Whoever starts there -- probably Thomas Vermaelen -- will not be a natural in that position. Laurent Koscielny also faces a late fitness test.
Projected lineups (left to right)
Bayern Munich (4-3-3): Manuel Neuer; David Alaba, Dante, Jerome Boateng, Rafinha; Philipp Lahm, Toni Kroos, Thiago Alcantara; Mario Götze, Mario Mandžukić, Franck Ribery
Arsenal (4-2-3-1): Lukasz Fabianski; Thomas Vermaelen, Laurent Koscielny, Per Mertesacker, Bacary Sagna; Mathieu Flamini, Mikel Arteta; Santi Cazorla, Mesut Özil, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain; Olivier Giroud
Key Matchups
Bayern Munich vs. themselves - Bayern Munich are the best team on earth. On the evidence of this season, only Real Madrid can touch them when they’re at their best. But they have a history of looking less than focused when they have massive leads -- like last year’s home leg against Arsenal. The good news for Bayern is that this team is even better than last year’s team and Arsenal are even more banged up than they were last year, but the Gunners also didn’t have anyone as good as Mesut Özil last season.
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain vs. the world - Jack Wilshere is out. Aaron Ramsey is out. Santi Cazorla doesn’t take games over by himself. Mesut Özil is only as good as the players around him. But Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain? Well, he can be whatever he damn well pleases. He just doesn’t seem to know it yet.
A couple years ago, Oxlade-Chamberlain got thrown into an impossible situation -- starting in the center of midfield against AC Milan, down 4-0 -- and turned in a heroic performance, nearly guiding Arsenal to a comeback. He’s shown flashes of brilliance since then, but it’s only been in the last few weeks that he’s started to look like a player who can play at that level consistently. He has more raw talent than anyone Arsenal will start on Tuesday and a huge performance from him will give them a chance to pull off a miracle.
Prediction
While Pep Guardiola seems to have figured out how to get Bayern to focus when they don't necessarily have to win a bit better than Jupp Heynckes did, they still haven't killed off that mentality completely, as evidenced by the Manchester City game in the group stage. Arsenal will score first, but then the hosts will turn up. 2-1 Bayern.
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