With nine teams separated by just four points, the bottom half of the Bundesliga is incredibly tight. And of course, those teams include Borussia Dortmund. They might be in 17th, but they'll still be hoping to contend for a Champions League place, not just to avoid the drop. It's not out of the question, since just 13 points separate Dortmund and Freiburg, tied for last, from third-place Bayer Leverkusen.
Paderborn and Köln are in for a tough second half of the Bundesliga season
Both the newly-promoted teams sit in the middle of the Bundesliga table, but they might take a tumble.
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So despite Paderborn and Köln being tied for 10th, the newly promoted sides won't feel all that comfortable with their midtable positions. Their recent performances have done little to encourage confidence, and with neither side making strong moves in the January transfer window, the second half of the season could see them fall into the danger zone.
Winless in the league since Nov. 2, Paderborn will have welcomed the Winterpause as a chance to regroup. The first half of their first-ever Bundesliga season brought few surprises, with Paderborn beating teams around them in the table, and losing when they were supposed to. Except, of course, when they managed to draw Dortmund, Leverkusen and Wolfsburg.
Köln, too, have provided few surprises (no, their win over Dortmund was not astonishing, sorry). They managed to beat Schalke, 2-1, just before the start of the winter break, but the Goats went on to draw with Mainz and lose at Wolfsburg after that, so they may be unable to recapture the morale boost that goes along with beating one of the league’s biggest sides.
In the high-scoring Bundesliga, both newly promoted sides have a bit of a problem: consistently scoring goals. They're not Hamburg -- who have just nine -- but Paderborn average just 1.24 goals per match, Köln a mere 1.0. Perhaps comparing that to Bayern Munich's 2.41 is unfair, but both Schalke and Hoffenheim manage 1.65 goals per match.
In the high-scoring Bundesliga, both newly promoted sides have a bit of a problem
Goals change games, and by that token, seasons as well. Every once in awhile, Köln are able to score, like in the 4-3 win over Hoffenheim. They’re decent at defending, with all four of their draws being scoreless. Add to that the fact that six of their eight losses have been by just one goal, and it seems as if the Goats could find the back of the net more often, they would likely manage to comfortably stay up this season.
"Wins come from goals" isn't exactly a revelation, but Köln aren't doing anything to help themselves. Adding an additional attacker or creator could've helped ease the pressure, but they've yet to make a move in the transfer window. They've also got a bit of a problem at the other end. Köln's defense isn't horrible -- just 23 conceded, as compared to Werder, who lead with 39 -- but they're losing their composure toward the end of matches, letting in eight goals in the final 15 minutes. But either Peter Stöger is content with the side he's got, or the club simply doesn't have money to add the pieces necessary for survival.
The same might go for Paderborn, who’ve also yet to make a move. The smaller side may simply be content with one season in the top flight. After all, they’ve never been here before, and with stadium capacity at around 15,000, they’re likely not flush with cash. You have to think that André Breitenreiter dreams of a difference-maker, however, or at least a strong leader who could help his side keep it together. Opposing sides love to score on Paderborn early in the match, and while the side is decent at fighting back for a point -- seven draws thus far -- they can’t seem to find the fight to earn (or keep) a victory.
Meanwhile, some of the teams in the bottom half have added pieces, hoping that the new signings can sway their fortunes. Werder Bremen (they of conceding all the goals) signed centerback Jannik Vestergaard from Hoffenheim and loaned 18-year-old central midfielder Levin Öztunali from Bayer Leverkusen. Mainz, with just three wins this season, brought in two attackers on loan. Nicolás Castillo, with eight goals in 18 appearances for Club Brugge, and Christian Clemens, a speedy winger, from Schalke. Last-place Freiburg purchased 19-year old Mats Möller Daehli from Cardiff City for €1.5 million, and loaned forward Nils Petersen from Werder until the end of the season.
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With the lack of moves from Paderborn and Köln, one has to wonder if they’re fooled by their current midtable standings, despite being just four points from bottom. But maybe one, or both, do have what it takes for a second consecutive season in the top flight. Perhaps the extended winter break gave both squads time to focus. If Paderborn could start winning on the road -- or simply scoring on the road -- that might be enough to boost them, as it’s exceedingly difficult to record points away in this league. Köln have the opposite problem, scoring just four times at home. If they could make the RheinEnergieStadion a fortress in the second half of the season, survival might be simple.
But what it likely comes down to is that both teams need to beat the sides around them, winning those all-important relegation six-pointers. The goals can come at home or away, they can be scored in the first 15 minutes or prevented in the last 15. However it happens, Paderborn and Köln need to earn wins against their fellow strugglers.
Their chances will come soon enough. Paderborn plays Mainz and HSV before meeting Köln. The Goats get their chance at HSV first, before hosting Stuttgart and Paderborn. By the time Valentine's Day hits, we might already know if either side is in a good enough position to stay up comfortably.
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