While the two teams qualifying straight out of Group A are locked in, who finishes third is still up for grabs. Right now, Turkey has a grasp on that spot -- but they have to beat Iceland to make sure that they keep it, because the Netherlands are right on their tail.
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If Turkey win, they’re in the playoff to decide who else goes to the European Championships next summer. If they don’t, they have to hope they get lucky.
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No one really expected this group to end this way. Turkey are a perennially solid-to-good side and the Netherlands were coming off a third-place finish in the World Cup. Sure, Iceland had shown improvement over the last couple of years and the Czech Republic are always a solid opponent, but no one thought that those two teams would be the top two in the group, with Turkey and the Netherlands duking it out for the third-place playoff spot. It was supposed to be the other way around, with these matches determining which of Turkey and the Netherlands finished up top and which of Iceland and the Czechs finished third.
Instead, Turkey has to beat Iceland if they just want a chance to make the Euros in France next summer. If they even draw, the Netherlands will finish third over them if they beat the Czech Republic, thanks to goal differential. There’s a vague chance that they could wind up on top of the group of third-place teams thanks to the complicated way that sub-table is determined, thereby skipping the playoff and qualifying directly -- but the odds are long and the main thing Turkey needs to worry about right now is winning this match and making sure they don’t get eliminated.
Key player -- Burak Yilmaz (Turkey)
Yilmaz isn’t at 100 oercent health right now, but he’s going to be vital for Turkey all the same. Whether he’s pushed into the starting lineup or comes off the bench, he’ll need to be at his lethal best in order to give his team the best chance securing the all-important win.
Key matchup -- Mehmet Topal (Turkey) vs. Gylfi Sigurðsson (Iceland)
The reasoning behind this one is simple: Sigurðsson is the leading scorer in the group so far with six goals to his name, two better than Yilmaz’s Turkey-leading four. He’s also a dangerous creative presence in Iceland’s midfield, so Topal is going to be keeping busy at the base of Turkey’s midfield keeping him at bay. It’s going to be a tough battle, and how well it goes will likely determine the end result of this match.
Match Date/Time: Tuesday, 2:45 p.m. ET, 8:45 p.m. local
Venue: Torku Arena, Konya, Turkey
TV: Fox Soccer Plus (U.S.), Stöð 2 Sport (Iceland), Show TV (Turkey)
Online: Fox Soccer 2 Go (U.S.), Sky Go (U.K.)
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