El Clásico 2015 preview: Real Madrid and Barcelona battle for top spot in La Liga

In a rare occurrence, the first La Liga edition of El Clásico features a bit of mystery this season. Real Madrid have a new manager and a new formation. Barcelona don’t know if Lionel Messi will be fit enough to start. Madrid didn’t win anything or get to the Copa del Rey final last year, so these two rivals didn’t face off in preseason. Both teams have turned in equally dominant and awful performances. Barca have looked more consistent, but Madrid’s goal differential is six goals better. It’s impossible to tell who has the upper hand coming into this match.

What we do know is that Madrid are coming off their worst performance of the season. The international break was probably a very welcome reset button after Ever Banega and Yevhen Konoplyanka of Sevilla carved them up at the Sanchez Pizjuan. Barca, meanwhile, have won their last four in a row.

The international break also allowed everyone to get fit. Messi is back in contention for Barca, while Rafa Benitez remarked in his pre-match press conference that this was the first time this season he had his entire squad to choose from.

Barring some kind of serious injury catastrophe for Barca that hits them harder than losing Messi for two months did, this game could be a season-defining one for Madrid if they lose. They’re at home in the first Clásico of the season, and behind by three points in the league. A loss at home that opens up a six-point gap is going to be a lot for Benitez and his squad to overcome. But, of course, a win for Los Merengues flips the narrative completely.

While Benzema is fit, he hasn’t played in quite a while, and his legal issues might play into whether or not he’s mentally ready to start this game. If Messi can walk, he’s going to ask to play, so we’re slotting him in. Barca’s toughest choice is between Rakitic and Mascherano, assuming the former is ready to play.

1. If Messi plays, is he limited? -- In most games, a very limited Messi is better than a fully fit Sandro or Munir. But in a game like El Clásico, where he’ll be expected to do some defensive work, that might not be the case. Look to see if Barca rearranges their team to protect him, or if they don’t, if he’s able to stop Marcelo from bombing up Madrid’s left flank.

2. If Benzema doesn’t play, is someone doing his job? -- In the Clásicos where Madrid has been successful in the last few years, one of the biggest factors has been the work rate and unselfishness of Benzema. His hold-up play, distribution and pressuring of Busquets are usually crucial. He’s not expected to start, and if he doesn’t, someone will have to take over his role. A static, goal-poacher version of Ronaldo up top won’t be successful unless all four of the players beneath him are doing serious defensive work.

3. Madrid’s attacking set pieces -- Madrid have the talent to play with Barca, but their manager is Benitez, a man notorious for asking his teams to keep their shape to the detriment of creativity and attacking third movement in big matches. It’s possible that Madrid’s best chances could come off set pieces, where players like Ramos, Varane, Ronaldo and Bale are some of the most dangerous players in the world.

A Sergio Ramos special. One set piece goal, one bonehead error that leads to a Barcelona goal, and about 15 yellow card offenses without getting a red card. Sorry, lovers of the beautiful game. 1-1 draw.