FC Porto have somehow avoided playing anyone great thus far in the UEFA Champions League. Their regular Europa League runs in off-years have kept them in the top tier of the coefficients, so they managed to draw an easy group and then a pretty favorable Round of 16 matchup. Now they face Bayern Munich, and they’re probably going to get crushed.
Bayern Munich vs. FC Porto, Champions League draw: Pep’s boys should prevail
Tough break, Porto. That’s the worst draw possible.
That’s not to say Porto aren’t a good team. There’s every possibility that they’re one of the best 8-to-16 teams in Europe, and they’ve certainly looked great thus far. But Bayern Munich have torn up this competition and the Bundesliga with ease, and they’ve done it with their best players injured. By April 15th, they should be healthy if they don’t pick up any new injuries.
But Bayern’s defense has been a bit suspect this season, and a handful of bad performances show that they are beatable. Wolfsburg, a team on roughly Porto’s level, managed to rip Bayern apart just after the winter break. Can Porto duplicate that performance?
Key matchup: Jackson Martinez vs. Bayern’s CBs
Bayern are going to have a ton of possession, and when they lose the ball, they’re going to pressure Porto hard, even in their attacking third. Porto’s best chances to score will be on early balls that get up the pitch quickly to find Jackson Martinez, one of the best strikers in the world on form. Bayern Munich’s defenders are going to end up isolated in space against Martinez on a few occasions, and the Colombian will have to take advantage once or twice to give his team a chance to pull the big upset.
One to watch: Philipp Lahm
Finally back from injury, Lahm should go back to being Bayern’s Swiss army knife. He could just end up filling whatever holes exist if the Bavarians pick up new injuries, but with the team in its current state, his deployment will tell us a lot about Pep Guardiola’s goals for a match. He can be used as a single holder, in a double pivot, at right back or right central defense depending on the game, and he’s just about equally adept at all these positions. He’s probably the best player in the world not named Messi or Ronaldo.
Prediction
It's certainly not beyond the realm of possibility that FC Porto pull off a huge upset, and not even extremely unlikely that they make this very hard on Bayern Munich. They're a good team. Bayern are just the best team in the world. Bayern Munich by multiple goals.
See More:
