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Come Fan with UsFriday, June 26, 2026

What are the chances the Magic of the Cup strikes this weekend?

There’s a lot of FA Cup action this weekend, and plenty of opportunity for the Magic of the Cup to make things more interesting than we expect.

Paul Gilham/Getty Images

We’ve finally reached the third round of the FA Cup, the round when teams from the Premier League and Championship show up at long last. With 32 matches on tap for this weekend, we’re going to have some chaotic action over the next few days -- and plenty of opportunity to see the Magic of the Cup.

For those unfamiliar with the term, the Magic of the Cup is what happens when small clubs from further down the ladder shock the big teams atop the EPL with eye-popping upsets. They’re the David and Goliath moments that prove that anything can happen in this game. It’s always dramatic, and it’s always so much fun to watch unfold -- unless you’re a fan of the big team getting toppled, that is.

Defending champions Arsenal are feeling good about their match against Sunderland, but what are the chances we see some of that magic this weekend in other games? With so many matches to be played, there's a pretty good chance. Let's break down the odds for some of the bigger EPL teams succumbing to the chaos, shall we? Here are the guidelines: We're looking only at teams in the top half of the Premier League who are facing lower-league opponents, with Chelsea thrown in as a bonus because they're still a huge club even with their struggles this season. Each match will be rated for the chance the Magic of the Cup "strikes" and there's an upset.

Exeter City (League Two) vs. Liverpool (Premier League)

The first match of the round is also one of the most unpredictable. Liverpool’s roster has been absolutely devastated by injuries, especially including a recent plague of hamstring woes, and they will be making the trip without a single healthy central defender in the squad. That’s not good, and leaves them ripe for an upset, even with Jurgen Klopp’s magic touch in mind.

Exeter City might be three leagues below them, but they’re a hard-working side that’s not at all without talent. Liverpool have struggled against teams like this in the FA Cup in recent years even when they were healthy, and they’re anything but healthy now. Liverpool should probably still win this match -- again, three division difference -- but between the Magic of the Cup and all the mixing and matching they’ll have to do to work around injuries, this has upset written all over it.

Chance of Magic: HIGH

Manchester United (Premier League) vs. Sheffield United (League One)

Manchester have won just one of their last nine matches across all competitions, falling out of the title race for the time being and putting Louis Van Gaal’s job on the line. That kind of situation would normally put them on high alert for this match, but there’s plenty of reason to think that they’ll be fine.

Sheffield have had their own struggles down in League One, and are probably more focused on getting back into the promotion playoff spots than they are in FA Cup glory. That gives Manchester a big leg up, and they probably feel good about playing this match at Old Trafford, as well -- though the Red Devils have lost two of the last three FA Cup matches they’ve played at home. All in all, they should win this one with ease -- but it’s impossible to say with absolute certainty that they’ll win, with the chances of a draw and a replay seeming particularly high.

Chance of Magic: MODERATE

West Ham United (Premier League) vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers (Championship)

West Ham have ridden a long unbeaten run to rise to sixth in the league, and have built a reputation for giant-killing in the Premier League this season. If they’re not careful, though, they could be the giants getting slain, as Wolves are on a hot streak of their own, winning three straight in the Championship to pull closer to the promotion playoff positions.

West Ham have a couple big factors riding in their favor, though -- they haven’t lost at home in the FA Cup since 2010, and if you only include matches against lower-league opposition it’s been over a decade since their last trip-up on home soil in the cup. For their part, Wolves haven’t won away in the FA Cup since 2010, and their likely focus on their league campaign and efforts to return to EPL glory could have them playing a weakened side in this match.

Chance of Magic: LOW

Doncaster Rovers (League One) vs. Stoke City (Premier League)

Doncaster fans must be excited, because there’s quite a bit of reason to think they could come out on top in this one. They’re playing at home, and recent form is in their favor, winning their last two and three of their last five matches overall. Stoke’s form is the exact opposite, losing their last two matches in fairly crushing fashion while dropping three of the last five.

The Potters also don’t have stellar depth despite their successes this year, suggesting a vulnerability if they rotate more of their starters out for this match. While Stoke have often prioritized the FA Cup in recent years, they’ve rarely been as good in the league as they’ve been this year, suggesting that they could set the FA Cup aside in their priorities. Especially since they’re already in a League Cup semifinal, don’t be shocked if we see a lot of reserves for Stoke, opening the gateway for Doncaster to have a very good day.

Chance of Magic: MODERATE TO HIGH

Chelsea (Premier League) vs. Scunthorpe United (League One)

We all know about Chelsea’s struggles this season, with the defending Premier League champions failing so miserably in their efforts to retain their title that they’re instead fighting against relegation. With Jose Mourinho fired and Guss Hiddink in the first weeks of his interim managerial reign, a lot of things are in flux for the Blues right now. While a strong run in the FA Cup could help boost morale, devoting resources there under the circumstances could be ill-advised.

In this match, though, Chelsea are still far more likely than not to come out victorious. They’re at home at Stamford Bridge, where they rarely lose in the FA Cup. Add that to Scunthorpe not being very good even by League One standards -- and them being even worse on the road in the cup -- and this should be a fairly straightforward win for Chelsea. That said, Chelsea have lost a lot of games this season that looked straightforward heading into them, so you’d be insane to rule out an upset in this one.

Chance of Magic: LOW TO MODERATE
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