Manchester City vs. AS Monaco, Champions League draw: Monégasques hoping for an upset

Manchester City will have to overcome on-form Monaco if they’re to make it through to the Champions League quarterfinals. Pep Guardiola’s side were drawn against the Ligue 1 high-fliers in the first knockout round, in a game that could well prove more difficult that they’d like. Whereas City have struggled of late, Monaco sit just a point adrift of domestic league leaders Nice, and should be high on confidence heading into these matches.

The City Years, volume 12 of Pep Guardiola’s eventual memoirs, will record that his first season in Manchester began in intriguing and very swingy fashion. His attempts to introduce the Gospel of the Immortal Cruyff to the northwest of England have so far resulted in an fair few goals, an awful lot of pretty football, and arguably City’s finest performance in living memory, when they came from behind to beat Barcelona 3-1.

Unfortunately for Guardiola and his team, a lot of the time they simply cannot defend. Score draws against Celtic and Borussia Mönchengladbach meant they never really pushed Barcelona for top spot in Group C, and clean sheets have been hard to come by at home as well. The perpetual knackeredness of Vincent Kompany and the wobbliness of every other defensive option means that City are there to be Got At.

How they got here: Excellent though the win over Barca was, it was the farcical 3-3 draw against Celtic that really set the tone for City’s leaky qualification and eventual second place.

Key player: There is something of an ongoing argument as to whether Claudio Bravo, brought in by Guardiola to replace England’s brave Joe Hart, is Actually Rubbish, or has simply looked a bit dodgy behind an ever-shifting, delicate defence. If the latter, then he may need to step up to Actually Brilliant to compensate.

The last five years have been a strange trip for AS Monaco. They were purchased by billionaire Dmitry Rybolovlev in 2011, and he quickly spent huge to acquire world-class players. UEFA announced shortly afterwards that they’d be instituting Financial Fair Play, and, given Monaco’s meager attendance and sponsorship numbers, they weren’t going to comply. Monaco then sold off some players and disappeared from international consciousness for a bit.

But Monaco wasn’t tossed away by their owner after the rules changed. They spent their time out of the spotlight building a sustainable young team with some homegrown players, some poached from smaller French clubs and some from overseas. They found reasonably priced veterans to complement them. And now here’s Monaco, ahead of PSG in Ligue 1 and winners of their Champions League group. They should not be underestimated.

How they got here: Monaco was handed a kind group stage draw thanks to the Champions League’s new rules. CSKA Moscow was the top seed in their group, while neither Bayer Leverkusen nor Tottenham Hotspur was a giant either. Monaco lost their head to head with Bayer, but beat Spurs twice and took four points off CSKA to top Group E.

Key player: Fabinho, one of the world’s premier utility men. He usually starts at right back, but has turned in some dominant performances at defensive midfield as well. He’s key in defense and possession for Monaco, and on top of that, he’s scored seven goals in all competitions this season.

Monaco are a very talented side, but Manchester City should still have enough to make it through to the next round. It could be tight, but we’re still going for a City victory.