Ranking the candidates for player of the tournament at Euro 2016

Much like the previous edition of the European Championships and the last World Cup, there isn’t a clear-cut candidate for the best player of the tournament award at Euro 2016. We were spoiled for one cycle, with Xavi and Diego Forlán clearly lapping the pack during Euro 2008 and the 2010 World Cup, respectively, but haven’t been as fortunate recently. While Andrés Iniesta and Lionel Messi were deserving winners of the top awards at the last Euros and World Cup, neither was a runaway favorite, and the same thing is going on this year.

There’s a huge field of potential best player winners, and any of them could rocket to the top of the field with two great performances in the semifinals and final. Here they are, as they stand right now, before the semifinals kick off.

Besides scoring three goals, Bale is the only big-name star at this tournament to turn in good performances in five consecutive matches. He’s also turned in different kinds of great performances -- he didn’t record a goal or an assist in Wales’ 3-1 win over Belgium, but was still seen as having an excellent game as a presser, passer and general irritant for the Red Devils defense.

His status as the face of a beloved Cinderella story helps his case as well. Bale is likely the only player remaining that would have a chance to win best player of the tournament without making the final.

As Messi and Iniesta capturing recent best player of the tournament awards suggests, being ultra-famous is a great tiebreaker. And though Cristiano Ronaldo has been talked about more for throwing temper tantrums than doing good soccer things at Euro 2016, he’s still done a lot of great soccer things. And he, like Bale, is indisputably the face of his team. If he records a goal or an assist in a Portugal win over Wales on Wednesday, he’ll enter the final as the overwhelming favorite to take the award.

Two France players will split the vote in the event the hosts win the Euros, but Griezmann gets the slight edge over Dimitri Payet by virtue of leading the tournament in goals. He was the hero in the round of 16, scoring twice in the second half to bring France from behind to beat Ireland, 2-1. If no one else turns in a memorable and dominating individual performance over the next three games, voters will likely go back to that moment. He’s the only player who can claim to have come close to single-handedly willing his team to a knockout win.

Payet ranks lower than Griezmann simply because of the nature of individual awards. He’s been widely regarded as France’s best player at this tournament, but has fewer goals and the same number of assists. His biggest goal also came in the first game of the tournament, while Griezmann’s biggest goals have come more recently, and there was little to separate the two against Iceland. If voters are struggling to pick the best France player to vote as the player of the tournament, Griezmann’s goals are likely to serve as a tiebreaker. However, Xavi and Iniesta’s recent wins of the award suggest that voters might start trending towards a more sophisticated view of the total impact that a player has beyond goals and assists.

If voters are really, genuinely sophisticated -- or just like to sound smarter than they are -- while Germany wins the title, Kroos will get the biggest share of the votes. He hasn’t done anything flashy, but he’s the glue that keeps the best overall attack and defense at the Euros together. Kroos has done a brilliant job combining the roles of two players, helping his team keep possession and shape by limiting mistakes while also completing a pass that’s a little more positive than the easiest possible one on a regular basis. If Kroos was replaced with an average player, Germany probably wouldn’t be a great team. But without big goal and assist numbers, he’ll struggle to win the award.

The anti-Kroos. While he’s often maligned for his missed shots, botched touches and lack of pace, Giroud has recorded three goals and two assists. It is conceivable that he could finish the tournament with the best tally in both categories, and if he did, a large number of people would feel morally obligated to vote for him as best player of the tournament. You may think this is wrong, and I don’t blame you, but it is the reality of individual awards. If a guy leads a competition in goals or assists -- and definitely if he leads in both -- he has a good chance of winning said award. Even if he’s Olivier Giroud.

Before the quarterfinals, he might have been Germany’s favorite to win the award over Kroos. Sadly, he hurt his cause considerably with a jumping-jack handball that could have been easily prevented. Despite that, he’s been one of the best defenders at the tournament, has been incredible at passing from the back and has one of the best goals of the Euros too. He could re-claim favorite status with a dominant showing against France.

Olivier Giroud Lite. Imagine Portugal wins the Euros, but without Ronaldo recording a goal or an assist over the final two games. What then? Surely no one will give a player of the tournament award to Pepe. Renato Sanches, as great as he’s been, hasn’t been an every-match starter. William Carvalho has been mildly disappointing. The award might end up defaulting to Nani, who has quietly been good while recording two goals and an assist. This is not outside the realm of possibility.

Thanks to an awful penalty shootout, Italy was eliminated in the quarterfinals. No one who’s eliminated in the quarterfinals ever wins a player of the tournament award. But Bonucci made both of his penalties in that game, one in regular time and one during the shootout. He was flawless defensively in each of his games. His distribution was Pirlo-esque. If I had a vote, I’d vote for Bonucci in the event that none of the above players strings together two consecutive excellent performances over the final two games. Let’s hope he makes the tournament Best XI, at least.