Why the USMNT should line up with a back 3

The United States is facing a massively important pair of international matches, with their World Cup qualification on the line in the last two games of the Hex round of CONCACAF qualifying in the next week. With so much at stake and so little room for error in their matches against Panama and Trinidad and Tobago, many fans have one big question on their mind: just how is the USMNT going to get the most out of this squad in order to get the wins it needs?

The United States men’s national team should play with a back three. It’s the best formation for the current squad, and for most of the player pool as a whole. Yes, it’s an idea many fans dislike because of the formation’s ultra-defensive reputation — especially with how it’s been used in CONCACAF matches against the USMNT in the past — and the poor results during some of Jurgen Klinsmann’s half-hearted attempts at using it, but for this team, it can offer the best combination of attacking firepower and overall tactical balance that it can manage right now.

Specifically, the USMNT should play a 3-4-1-2, a formation that utilizes a pair of wingbacks flanking a midfield pivot duo. Ahead of them would be a traditional playmaker behind a duo of strikers — a role that has brought out the best of Christian Pulisic during his time with the national team.

But more on Pulisic later. There are two keys to any formation that utilizes a back three — the composition of that defensive trio and how the midfield pivot ahead of them functions.

It’s not a formation that’s popular in America. It’s often derided as overly defensive, too conservative, too boring, too whatever. There’s lots of variations of the three-man defense, and few of them are thought of well by fans of the USMNT.

But for the squad that’s been put together for these two matches, a back three would be the best option available, and the crucial back line would be best composed by Geoff Cameron and Matt Besler on either side of the trio, and Omar Gonzalez anchoring the line in the center. Now, I’ve been critical of Cameron in the past, including after a notably poor performance from him in September against Costa Rica. But his skillset plays well at the outside of a trio like this, with his athleticism and ability to cover ground quite valuable in this kind of setup, much like Besler. Gonzalez can be the pillar in the heart of everything, as he’s been in excellent club form of late with Pachuca.

The balance those three can strike will be vital, as the counterattacks both Panama and Trinidad can bring will demand that the American defenders be on their toes at all times. But the extra man you gain by playing three center backs instead of two can help provide extra coverage, especially in situations when the wingbacks get caught up the pitch. With Gonzalez supporting them in the middle, Cameron and Besler can feel more confident and much safer in stepping up to deal with the attack if need be, freeing them up to use their skillsets with more ease and less risk than in a traditional four-man back line.

It’s important for this trio to play well, because the back three will be the foundation of this formation if it’s used. But the turning point will be that midfield pivot, and a lot of that will lie on Michael Bradley’s shoulders.

Bradley has been a frequent target of scorn from USMNT fans over most of his career with the national team, frequently accused of not being good enough, of being too heavily relied upon, of not being worthy of being the captain. But he’s shown throughout his career that when he’s played in the right role and is given the right support, he can be an incredibly valuable pivot for the USMNT midfield, capable of helping shield the defense while maintaining and pushing possessions at a level higher than anyone else on the squad.

But so much of that depends on Bradley’s partner, and that’s been an issue throughout his USMNT tenure. During the last set of international matches, he was too often left basically on his own in central midfield, with his partner tasked with pushing high to assume more playmaking responsibilities. In the 3-4-1-2 being proposed here, though, that wouldn’t be necessary — with Pulisic playing as the playmaking No. 10, Bradley’s partner would be able to play more of a supporting role, giving him the help he needs and an extra body to help shield the back three.

Who that would be depends very highly on what Bruce Arena wants. If he wants a more active, box-to-box midfielder to help bring further attacking pressure and provide an extra outlet in the final third, he can turn to Darlington Nagbe. He struggled in the national team side a month ago, but has excelled next to Bradley in the past when he’s not tasked with doing too much in a given match.

But if Arena wants to play it a little safer and partner Bradley with someone who can stay home more, giving more defensive solidity while still having the ability to push up and contribute to the attack when needed, then Kellyn Acosta is the obvious choice here. The young FC Dallas midfielder impressed against Honduras a month ago and is considered by many to be a key cog in the future of the U.S. midfield. But if Arena doesn’t want the future to be now, the more veteran presence of Dax McCarty can fill a similar role, and it’s hard to deny his excellent club form this season.

This formation would put a lot of pressure on the young American superstar, putting the onus of the playmaking responsibilities on his 19-year-old shoulders. That’s of concern to some given how shaky his club form has been with Borussia Dortmund of late, but he’s been put in this kind of position for the national team before and performed magnificently.

In fact, despite playing mostly as a left winger for BVB, Pulisic’s best performances in a USMNT shirt have come when playing more centrally as a playmaker behind the strikers. When he’s on his game in this spot, he’s a huge driving force for the U.S. and can change the game almost on his own. We’ve seen him do it before in the Hex, leading the USMNT to their best performances of the Hex against Panama, Trinidad and Tobago, and the huge 6-0 beating of Honduras.

Pulisic has been played at right wing recently for the U.S. in an experiment that hasn’t gone well at all, so it’s high time to put him back in the place he’s been at his best for the USMNT.

The front two will need to be excellent during these two matches, because they’re going to be facing a pair of packed-in defenses who will do everything they can to not give a single inch of ground. That’s why Jozy Altidore and Bobby Wood need to start, and Clint Dempsey needs to start the game on the bench.

Altidore has taken tremendous strides forward in his holdup play up top, finally starting to become the physical, complete striker U.S. fans long wanted him to be. That has helped push the USMNT to some of their better results this past year, and has also helped keep them in some matches their attack was otherwise struggling with. Pairing this improved version of Altidore with Wood’s smart and hard running will help pull apart their opponents’ defenses, especially with Pulisic’s cutting creative style behind them.

More than that, it will help wear down their opponents’ defenses more quickly, forcing defenders to work harder and cover a lot more ground instead of getting to stay in tight and passive. That will leave them vulnerable to a set of fresh, cutting legs with a nasty skillset coming off the bench to make a late impact — like those of Dempsey, who at this point in his career and with these matchups can do more to help change a game by coming on late than he can in the starting lineup.

But the attack is about more than just the front line — in this 3-4-1-2, the wingbacks will be playing a very important role as well. The USMNT will need quality width to help keep its opponents’ defenses honest, and for that it needs DeAndre Yedlin — healthy again and in fantastic form for Newcastle — and Jorge Villafaña to play with the high pace they’re capable of to help keep pressure on Panama and then Trinidad and Tobago. Of course, that wide duo will also need to be aware at all times for a counter-attack to develop, because they’ll be needed in defense as well, so that the back three doesn’t get over-exposed.

Knowing what the formation will be is one thing, and knowing how the USMNT will play is another. Obviously we can’t say that with certainty because none of us is Bruce Arena, but one word describes what the U.S. needs to do in these two matches against Panama and against Trinidad and Tobago: pressure.

The U.S. needs to come out of the gates flying against Panama. It needs to bring relentless early pressure on Panama’s tough defense, and use that to score early. If it can make Panama chase the game early instead of being able to be patient and pick its spot, it can overcome the tough-nosed defense of Los Canaleros, turning their physicality against them by putting them on the back foot and forcing them to come to the U.S.

The pressure needs to be a bit different against Trinidad and Tobago. Instead of flying out of the gates, the U.S. needs to bring sustained, steady attacking pressure all match long, even though it won’t be playing on U.S. soil. The USMNT has struggled with that during the Hex, but if it can figure it out against Trinidad — and the 3-4-1-2 should help with that — it can steadily wear the Soca Warriors down.

No matter how the USMNT sets up for these two matches, it has absolutely no room for error, and that’s because its results so far in the Hex have left it none to spare. To keep their World Cup qualification fate in their own hands, the United States need to win both of these matches, and they need to win them emphatically.

The 3-4-1-2 gives them the best chance of that, striking the right balance of being able to bring relentless attacking pressure and keeping a firm defense against a pair of potentially lethal counter attacks. These matches will not be pretty. CONCACAF matches rarely are just by the nature of the confederation as a whole. All that matters, though, is that the United States win and advance to the World Cup without further frustration and heartache, and hopefully Bruce Arena and Co. set his team up in a way that leaves it in a position to do just that.