Mexico face difficult, but surmountable journey in the World Cup

Mexico fans watched Friday morning’s World Cup draw with bated breath, hoping beyond hope that El Tri would get a favorable group and have an easy path to the knockout rounds in Russia. What they got was anything but, because getting drawn against Germany, Sweden, and South Korea means that Mexico have a very, very tough group that they’re going to have to be at their very best to get out of.

Obviously, Germany represent the biggest challenge for El Tri in this group. The defending World Cup champions ran rampant through their qualifying group in UEFA, winning ten out of ten matches, and while they’re not quite the dominant force that won it all in 2014, they’re still one of the absolute elite teams in the world. They’ve got top-shelf talent all over the pitch, and Joachim Löw’s ability to re-tool his very deep team at a moment’s notice to adjust tactics or individual matchups to Germany’s best advantage represents a big problem for a Mexico side that’s not nearly as deep as they’d like to be right now.

But they’re far from the only hurdle Mexico has to face. Sweden may not be the international powerhouse they were decades ago, but they did very well in a tough qualifying group, then took down Italy in a qualifying playoff tie to knock the 2006 World Cup winners out of the tournament for the first time since 1958. They’re a team that’s gotten younger and much better over the last couple of years — and they’ve done all this without Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who might be returning to his national team for one last major tournament run. Sweden are more complete than they used to be, and if they add an in-form Zlatan to that mix, they could be a real threat in this group.

Then there’s South Korea, headed by Son Heung-Min, the newly-crowned Asian Player of the Year, and who has scored a lot of goals in a lot of roles for Tottenham Hotspur in the English Premier League. They don’t have the depth of talent to hang with the other teams in this group, but they do have a good enough squad to give anyone in it trouble, especially as their high-energy style is something that Mexico has struggled with in the past.

Something else that could stand out for Mexico during the group stage is that in recent times they’re just not as battle-tested as their group foes. Germany swept their group, but still faced some tough matchups along the way, and their B team just won the Confederations Cup last summer, including a semi-finals win over Mexico. Sweden had to put their shoulder to the millstone to qualify, and while South Korea’s recent form has been shaky, they found a way to get through a tough qualifying process in Asia anyways.

In contrast, Mexico had an easy time of it in CONCACAF. With the United States falling dramatically in quality and Costa Rica not really stepping up in quality, they haven’t been pushed much lately. They’ve also had disappointing tournament runs since the last World Cup, including much earlier-than-expected Copa America exits two years in a row, a poor Olympics showing, and a disappointing loss to Jamaica in the Gold Cup semifinals last summer. Compared to their opponents’ stronger results, that’s a big cause for concern.

But there’s still plenty of hope for Mexico. Despite their relative struggles and the strength of the teams around them, they’re an excellent team themselves who have been playing well of late. There’s still questions as to how effective a manager Juan Carlos Osorio is at the higher levels of the game, but with a team that plays for each other like Mexico has been, they can elevate their level of play even further on a stage like this.

Mexico should be able to beat South Korea in a straight-up fight. Korea’s press is something that can give Mexico trouble, but they have the defenders to keep Son quiet, and their attack is more talented than Korea’s defense. Sweden is a tougher task, because they’re a more complete and balanced team than Korea. But if Osorio gets his gameplan right, Mexico is just that little bit deeper and more versatile enough that El Tri can counter almost anything Sweden throws at them — provided the Zlatan factor can be somehow kept in check.

The biggest issue, then, is Germany. The defending World Cup champs are head and shoulders better than Mexico and there’s not much they can do on a tactical level to overcome that. That’s not to say that El Tri won’t fight for something out of that match, but it’s just not terribly likely. That said, if Mexico play to their level and get three points in each of their other two matches, it likely won’t matter what they do against Germany — they should be in position to advance to the knockout rounds regardless.

This group probably won’t be a pretty display for Mexico. In fact, it’s likely to be an ugly grind to get through. But they absolutely can get through it— they just need to be the El Tri that everyone expects them to be, because that team can be scary and take down almost anyone on a given night. We haven’t seen them consistently in the last couple of years, but if there’s any time for them to return to that form, it would be at the World Cup. Hopefully this time they can get past the round of 16 for the first time since 1986, but to do that they have to find their way past a tough, tough group first.