The USWNT has a lot of questions to answer after finishing last in the SheBelieves Cup

The United States women’s national team entered the SheBelieves Cup expecting to win the tournament on home soil, and turn in three solid performances at the very least. Instead, they finished dead last, following up a win against Germany with shutout losses to England and France. It was the first time the USWNT had lost back-to-back home games since 2000.

Two bad losses aren’t something to be concerned about in and of themselves. The USWNT is making drastic changes in tactics and personnel, and they’re doing so at a time that makes sense — the next major tournament is more than two years away. There were plenty of positives to come out of the tournament, and even more problems that conceivably have workable short-term solutions.

But some aspects of the USWNT’s play and tactics just look bad. So let’s talk about everything: the good, the fixable, and the downright worrying.

Last September, USWNT head coach Jill Ellis debuted a new 3-4-1-2 formation out of nowhere, in a friendly against the Netherlands. It turned out to be more than just a one-off experiment in a throwaway game — Ellis has continued to use a back three, and did in all three SheBelieves Cup games. The team appears to have improved in their understanding of the system, but they’re very far from expert level.

France’s goals in the final game of the tournament illustrate the USWNT’s problem with positional understanding perfectly. On Les Bleus’ second, Allie Long failed to anticipate a long ball over the top to Eugenie Le Sommer, while Becky Sauerbrunn made a poor decision in her attempt to help, and goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher’s positioning left something to be desired.

France’s third showed off an even bigger problem with the team’s lack of mastery of their roles in this formation. Left center-back Casey Short and left wingback Tobin Heath both stepped up to close down the ball during the move, leaving Eve Perisset free to run in behind the defense.

Once Perisset broke free down the right, Long, Sauerbrunn, and Naeher had to scramble to attempt to recover, and it would be unfair to blame them for failing to cut out the resulting cross or stop Camille Abily from scoring.

The American defense looked competent in the Germany game, but was a bit shaky with Julie Johnston and Ali Krieger rotated in against England. Long and Short returned to face France, and weren’t nearly as sharp as they were in the opener. Ellis still has to find the right three players to use in defense, then make sure they have a good understanding of their roles in the system. Right now, it doesn’t look like anyone has a good understanding of how to defend in this shape.

Given the timing, these SheBelieves Cup games were exhibitions that were slightly more competitive than normal friendlies, which the USWNT used to try out a new system and some new players, as well. Still, the USWNT was taking these games seriously. They wanted to win. And, uh ...

That’s not great, especially since it was obvious to France’s coach and players exactly how they should be attacking the USWNT.

Back three systems are inherently susceptible to being overloaded on the flanks against teams that play variations of 4-3-3, but there are ways to mitigate those problems. The USWNT didn’t do anything to prevent themselves from getting roasted out wide — they played true wingers, not wingbacks in the wingback slots — and even weirder, it didn’t occur to them that France might use this strategy.

It’s true that the USWNT was more concerned with getting better at playing in a back three than they were at stifling France, but it’s not clear that Ellis has a sound idea in place here. We should remember that this is the coach who called attacking midfielders Carli Lloyd and Lauren Holiday “two No. 6s” during the World Cup group stage, and only accidentally stumbled into a better lineup because Holiday’s suspension forced her to give Morgan Brian a chance.

Because a 3-4-1-2 formation features wide players starting from deeper positions than formations the USWNT has used previously, it’s important for the strikers to move off the ball — perhaps wide, if there’s space wide — to give defensive midfielders and defenders the same number of positive passing options that they’d have if the team was playing a variation of 4-4-2 or 4-3-3. The forwards weren’t doing a great job of that all tournament, and especially in the second half against France.

There was one particularly bad moment late in the France match. Lindsey Horan did an excellent job to win the ball in midfield, surge forward into space and draw defenders’ attention towards her. She had her head up, looking for an early pass. And she had no one to pass to, because the forwards were all standing still.

The concept of the USWNT’s new formation makes sense. They’re best with two strikers, but two-time FIFA World Player of the Year and captain Carli Lloyd is pretty much a pure attacking midfielder. She’s a bit slow to play as a pure striker and a liability defensively in a midfield two, but world class at scoring from the No. 10 position. A 4-3-1-2 or 4-4-2 diamond formation isn’t a great idea because the USWNT’s wide players are too good to keep on the bench. So Ellis came up with the solution of using those great wide players as wingbacks, and making up for their defensive liabilities by playing three center-backs.

But this really doesn’t feel like the best use of available talent. Casey Short and Ali Krieger, who played as outside center-backs at SheBelieves, are much better as balanced fullbacks in a back four. Allie Long plays as a box-to-box central midfielder fro the Portland Thorns, and looks a bit out of place at center back. Julie Johnston and Becky Sauerbrunn formed the best two-woman center back partnership in the world before this formation change. And there’s something criminal about forcing players like Crystal Dunn and Tobin Heath into roles where they have large defensive responsibilities and shouldn’t take too many risks going forward.

The best use of the USWNT’s top players is probably a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation that allows Lloyd or a similar attacking midfielder to get forward with defensive cover, while the wide players take risks and the fullbacks play support roles. This would demand a lot of smart movement and hold-up play from Alex Morgan or Christen Press — both of whom are probably better with a strike partner — but if either can learn the role, it would benefit the rest of the team immensely.

Heath and Dunn are simply too good to be wasted as wingbacks, and getting the USWNT’s defensive personnel up to speed in a back three looks like it’s going to take a ton of work.

The biggest bright spot at SheBelieves was Lavelle, a 21-year-old University of Wisconsin product who was selected by the Boston Breakers with the first pick at the 2017 NWSL College Draft. She started at left wingback against England — a role she’s never played before — and was the best player on the pitch in her USWNT debut.

Look at how she turns out of pressure, nutmegs a defender and makes a perfect pass to Mallory Pugh, turning defense into attack by herself in five seconds.

Lavelle is probably the most technically adept player to join the USWNT since Heath and Holiday started making appearances a decade ago. Ellis has regularly alluded to transforming the USWNT into a possession-oriented team — as did her predecessor, Tom Sermanni — and Lavelle will be a huge part of those plans going forward.

Worrying quote No. 1, from Ellis, on Lavelle

“What’s her best role? I mean she’s still kind of new with us so I think tonight in a game where I thought she did very well wide — and she’s a natural lefty so we like her out there ... I think she did great. So we’ll see in terms of where she ends up.” (via Stephanie Yang)

Firstly, “she’s a lefty so we played her on the left” is not great logic. Second, Ellis proceeded to play Lavelle on the right against France. It’s tough to figure out what she’s thinking.

This isn’t to say that Lavelle should play in her preferred position, as a No. 10. A lot of players prefer to play in that role, and most of them can’t, for the good of the team. But Ellis saying this, then swapping her to the right wing is very odd.

Worrying quote No. 2, from Ellis, on Short

A manager defending their players is a good thing. Managers should defend their players against criticism and direct the heat towards themselves. Short and Naeher are also good players who should get more chances with the national team, and not be judged on one game. But it’s ridiculous to say that they “took steps forward” against France. They both played poorly. Let’s hope Ellis was just defending them, not stating a genuinely held belief.

Worrying quote No. 3, from Lloyd

“Nobody likes losing 2 in a row. But this is what it’s all about, to be tested by some of the best teams in the world. We have a lot of young players out there, a lot of players who haven’t been a part of this team. The real focus is 2019, and if life were easy and we were winning all the time, it wouldn’t taste that much sweeter to make it to the top. We’ve just got to keep focused on what we want to do, stick to the game plan and all learn from this. It’s just a learning tool.”
(FS1 interview with Jenny Taft)

The captain of the team should not be using young and new players as an excuse for a loss. Especially when they didn’t play well themselves, and were rightfully substituted for playing poorly.

Only two players started every match for the USWNT at the SheBelieves cup, co-captains Lloyd and Sauerbrunn. As a result of their undroppable status, there was no time to get minutes for Jessica McDonald, the leading scorer in NWSL over the last three seasons, or Emily Sonnett, a 23-year-old defender widely considered to be an important part of the team’s future.

As Lloyd said, “the real focus is 2019.” If this is true, shouldn’t Ellis have picked a game to rest each of them and get a look at more players?

And at the same time, Lloyd’s form has been extremely up and down over the last year. She struggled at the Olympics, recovered to have an excellent fall, then played poorly in all three SheBelieves matches. Lloyd hasn’t been consistently great outside of major tournament knockout games either, at any point in her career. If she’s in poor form, someone else should get a shot.

Once a member of the Undroppables Club, Alex Morgan appears to have fallen into a rotation, and will need to compete to get back to a place where her starting status is set in stone.

It looks like her competition is stiff, too. While none of the strikers were great at SheBelieves, Christen Press and Lynn Williams turned in the closest thing to a good performance, in the opener against Germany. Both were much better than Morgan in NWSL last season. And Morgan has studded to establish herself at the top of the forward pecking order on a loaded Olympique Lyonnais side, though partially due to injury issues.

There’s no question that Morgan is one of the most talented forwards in the world. Her 2012 is arguably the best individual year in USWNT history, and she showed flashes of her former greatness in 2016. But it’s been five years since Morgan was truly at the top of her game, and her grace period has ended. If she’s going to start big games, it’ll be because she earned it with her play for Lyon and Orlando Pride, as well as off the bench or in lower-level games for the USWNT.

When any national team loses games they’re expected to win, fans get talking about the team selection. And with the USWNT, that argument usually boils down to one thing — do you pick the players in the best form, or try to build team chemistry?

Most of the USWNT’s big successes in their history have been during periods when they had a defined formation and the majority of their starters set in stone. A handful of players rotate in and out due to fitness or tactical adjustments, but historically, seven or eight starters have been known before lineups were released.

However, loyalty to players in the face of all evidence that change is needed has also been the USWNT’s downfall on several occasions. And, as noted earlier, their 2015 World Cup win came as the result of a dramatic change. They didn’t start playing their best soccer until they figured out that they needed to move Lloyd up the pitch and bench one of their out of form strikers for Brian.

Is the best way forward for the USWNT to decide on a core and stick with them, or to err on the side of picking the players who are in the best form? That might be the toughest question that a national team coach has to answer.

The USWNT has two scheduled friendlies against Russia in April, then a match away to Norway in June. It’s possible they could add another away match during that European trip. There should be games against Brazil and Japan at some point, but no details have been given on those.