Cristiano Ronaldo rumors: Why he probably won’t leave Real Madrid

People close to Cristiano Ronaldo stunned the footballing world on Friday when they told everyone who would listen that he’d like to leave Real Madrid. Ronaldo is reportedly so upset by accusations of tax fraud by Spanish authorities that he wants to leave the country, even if that means he has to force a transfer away from the Bernabeu.

This is sudden, surprising news that doesn’t make a lot of sense. If we had to guess right now, we’d say that Ronaldo will be a Real Madrid player next season. But with that said, here’s the case for his possible departure from Los Merengues.

It’s going to be difficult for anyone to catch Ronaldo’s all-time scoring record at Real Madrid. His 406 goals are 83 ahead of second-placed Raúl. His scoring rate is better than both Alfredo Di Stefano and Ferenc Puskás, who played in an era when the talent gap between Madrid and its rivals was much bigger than it is now. It’ll take more than a decade of consistently great play for any Madrid attacker to come close to him.

Three Champions League titles in four seasons is a ridiculous accomplishment as well, and as the best player on all of those teams, it’s one that will make sure Ronaldo is recognized as Real Madrid’s greatest ever player, even ahead of Di Stefano. He might be ready for a new challenge.

Forbes estimates that Ronaldo will make $93 million in 2017, making him the world’s highest paid athlete. He’s been earning an estimated $30 million or more every year since 2009, steadily increasing each year. So it seems unlikely that Ronaldo has money problems, even if he has to pay a €15 million tax bill, plus interest and huge fines.

But stories of athletes (or other types of rich people, for that matter) making bad decisions and losing nine figures worth of cash aren’t uncommon. If he does have financial concerns, a move to the Chinese Super League would likely solve those problems instantly.

It’s also possible that Ronaldo has no financial concerns but would like to make as much money as possible anyway. That would be another good reason to make a move to China.

Anything that’s merely gossip on the BBC is clearly marked as such, and never has a reporter’s name attached to it. But BBC sports editor Dan Roan is reporting that Ronaldo wants to leave Madrid, and he’s quoting a source directly.

“He feels he’s honest, has good character and did everything OK, so he doesn’t understand,” says a source close to Cristiano Ronaldo. “He’s very sad and really upset. He doesn’t want to stay in Spain. At this moment, he wants to leave.”

In the world of soccer transfer rumors, it’s difficult to separate fact from fiction. But most rumors don’t feature credible reporters putting their names on stories with quoted sources. It’s possible that Ronaldo stays at Real Madrid, but this was not pulled out of thin air.

And if you like conspiracy stuff better than real reporting — let’s be honest, who doesn’t? — Ronaldo was also left out of Madrid’s kit launch video.

Here’s where we drop the analysis for a second and admit that there’s a lot we don’t know. Anyone who wasn’t in the room when Ronaldo said he wants to leave Madrid won’t know how serious he was. Anyone who doesn’t know Ronaldo personally won’t understand his reasoning. He might make a decision that makes no sense to outsiders.

That’s the case for Ronaldo leaving Madrid. The case for him staying is quite a bit stronger.

If you could get out of a criminal charge by taking a new job in another country, the world’s prisons would be pretty empty. Unfortunately for Ronaldo, that’s not how this works. Leaving Spain because he’s mad about how he’s treated won’t change how he’s being treated. If the Spanish authorities think they have a case that Ronaldo defrauded the government of €15 million, they’re going to pursue it anyway, and he’s going to have to face the consequences anyway.

Maybe Ronaldo’s done everything there is to do at Madrid and hates Spain so much he wants to leave the country at any cost. But he’s still a competitor, and there isn’t a team that gives him a better chance to compete for trophies — individual or team — than Real Madrid. If he goes to Paris Saint-Germain or Manchester United, his chances of winning the Champions League, Champions League top scorer and Ballon d’Or all decrease significantly. Is he really going to voluntarily go to a worse team when it doesn’t even change his legal situation?

And speaking of Ronaldo’s competitiveness...

Lionel Messi has 15 wins, eight draws, and nine losses in matches against Ronaldo in his career. Messi has scored 19 goals in those games to Ronaldo’s 17. Since Ronaldo joined Madrid, Messi has five La Liga titles to Ronaldo’s two and four La Liga golden boot awards to Ronaldo’s three.

Ronaldo will say these records don’t matter, but he’s clearly a man with a massive ego, and they will define his historical legacy. If he leaves Real Madrid, he’s guaranteed to go down in history as the second-best player of his generation. He will never be able to say that he got the better of Messi over the course of their careers.

Ronaldo got a new five-year contract this year, one that will pay him like the best player in the world after his inevitable decline. Real Madrid gave him that contract because he is worth more than his on-pitch production to them. He is a club icon and ambassador who will attract sponsorship and sell merchandise well into his 30s, even if he’s just a bench player.

Is he worth a five-year contract that makes him the best-paid player in the world to any other team? If he goes to another club and never produces at a Ballon d’Or level for it, he’s not going to provide the same kind of commercial value in his later years as he would have at Real Madrid. He won’t have to take a short-term pay cut if he leaves Real Madrid, but other teams will be having tough internal debates about whether or not they can justify giving him a five-year deal at his current wages.

Figuring out a transfer fee is even harder. Real Madrid is in the business of buying Galácticos, not selling them. If they’re even willing to negotiate Ronaldo’s exit — which Florentino Perez will not want to do — they’ll demand a world record fee. Does anyone want to pay in excess of €100 million for a 32-year-old who is past the peak of his career?

It’s difficult to come up with a scenario where moving away from Real Madrid is the best thing for Ronaldo, or where all parties would come together to make that move happen. The scenarios simply don’t make sense. Everyone has a huge snag; at least one major reason why it wouldn’t work out.

But the most important point addressed here is that we don’t know Ronaldo. We don’t know what he’s thinking. He doesn’t need to have footballing or financial reasons that we can understand easily to leave Real Madrid. Maybe he just decided he doesn’t want to play for Real Madrid anymore, and that’s that. The information we have available to us all suggests that Madrid is where Ronaldo should stay for the foreseeable future, but he has information that no one else has.