United States men’s national team star Christian Pulisic completed a transfer to Premier League giants Chelsea on Wednesday, with Borussia Dortmund raking in a cool €64 million for the 20-year-old attacker. The fee is more than triple the previous record for an American, set by John Brooks’ transfer to Wolfsburg. Pulisic was immediately loaned back to Dortmund and will complete the 2018-19 season with the German club.
5 things that will determine Christian Pulisic’s future at Chelsea
We won’t have any idea if it’s a good move until August. Here’s what’s happening between now and then.
Any discussion about how Pulisic will fare at Chelsea or whether he’s worth the money is going to involve even more broad speculation than usually happens around big transfers. Next summer is a long way off, and there’s a lot that can happen to Chelsea between now and Pulisic’s arrival.
These are the big factors that will decide how Pulisic’s time at Chelsea goes.
1. Real Madrid probably still wants Eden Hazard
Eden Hazard’s seventh season at Chelsea has been one of his best, and there’s a good chance it could be his last. His contract expires in summer of 2020, and thus far he’s rejected chances to sign a new one. Chelsea probably don’t want him to walk away for free.
Real Madrid seemed interested in signing Hazard as a Cristiano Ronaldo replacement this summer, but were rejected by the Blues. Chelsea won’t be in much of a position to reject a nine-figure offer if one comes in this summer.
That would open up a clear spot in the starting XI for Pulisic, but also put a lot of pressure on him to replace a Chelsea legend, arguably the best attacker in the club’s history. At the same time, a nine-figure Hazard sale would likely mean Chelsea purchases another wide player of Pulisic’s caliber.
2. Willian and Pedro, among others, are old
There might not be another Pulisic or Hazard-level wide player coming into Stamford Bridge this summer, but it’s also unlikely that Pulisic is the only new player in that spot. Willian is 30 years old and Pedro is 31. Willian’s contract is set to run out in 2020, while Pedro can leave on a free transfer this summer if he wishes, or if Chelsea don’t offer him a new deal.
Long-term, a promising 20-year-old will not have to compete with these incumbents for playing time. But depending on how they finish the season, Chelsea might see them as capable for another season or two. They’re fighting for new contracts.
3. Can Chelsea make Champions League?
Champions League is no longer the end-all, be-all in the transfer market for English clubs. Media rights and sponsorship revenue have increased enough that Chelsea can miss Champions League and still comfortably afford to buy a player like Pulisic without running afoul of Financial Fair Play. Chelsea’s salaries and getting to live in London are big draws for players too.
But it’s not meaningless, either in drawing power or budget. Chelsea will have more money to spend this summer if they make Champions League, and they’ll be able to attract better players too. That’s important because they need to upgrade in positions other than their wide areas. Cesc Fabregas, Gary Cahill, Alvaro Morata, Victor Moses and Danny Drinkwater will all be on the lookout for new opportunities this summer (or perhaps this month), while Mateo Kovacic is only at the club on loan and 32-year-old Olivier Giroud is far from a lock to continue in a key role with the club.
The Blues have some excellent core pieces in place, but they’re still looking at a major squad overhaul in the summer. It’s impossible to guess who Pulisic is going to have playing around him.
4. Also, Chelsea might get FIFA transfer banned
All of the above is predicated on Chelsea not receiving a transfer ban from FIFA, which is a serious possibility. The club insist they broke no FIFA transfer rules, but world soccer’s governing body is reportedly looking into 19 of its transfers. This happened to Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid recently and seriously affected those teams’ ability to compete in the seasons they were in effect.
Chelsea can probably stall successfully, though. The Blues will almost certainly appeal the ruling to the Court of Arbitration for Sport if FIFA hands them a ban, and unless that’s handled very swiftly, Chelsea should be able to sign players this summer and kick their ban down the road into the following couple of transfer windows.
5. And the obvious one: How good is Christian Pulisic?
Chelsea would not pay €64 million for a player if they didn’t believe that he could be an every game starter for them. Pulisic has turned in huge performances against the likes of Real Madrid and Bayern Munich. So, the sky’s the limit.
Pulisic has also plateaued a bit. He’s been overshadowed by 18-year-old wonderkid Jadon Sancho this season. Because of Sancho’s form, Pulisic isn’t quite first choice for Dortmund at the moment. He’s also had some recurring muscle injuries, though minor ones. It’s not uncommon to see top teenage talents get to this level, then fail to improve.
I have no idea how good Pulisic is. Neither do you. Neither does Chelsea manager Maurizio Sarri. But if you’re the type that likes to dream of the best-case scenario, this highlight video should help.
