You should back the U.S. beat Guatemala and to book another trip to the Gold Cup final. Here’s why

We can admit when we’re wrong.

Not many people predicted what transpired between the United States and Costa Rica, which went to penalties and saw goalkeeper Matt Freese become the hero who sent the U.S. into the semifinals after a thrilling penalty kick shootout.

Next up, Guatemala, a team that’s entering its first semifinal since 1996 and on a mission to knock off the U.S. on Wednesday night (7 p.m., FS1). The winner will face the victor of the other semifinal between Mexico and Honduras.

For the U.S. men’s national team, this isn’t anything new. The team has advanced to the semifinal rounds of the Gold Cup in its last 13 appearances in the tournament and has never conceded a goal to Guatemala.

Fanduel has the U.S. as a lock to win Wednesday’s showdown, with a moneyline of -410. It’s a safe play, but there are other odds for those who want to have a little more to play for while watching the U.S. chase a trip to Saturday’s final (7 p.m., FOX).

But first…

Pulling off an impressive victory over a Jesse Marsch-led Canada side was no small feat. It took Guatemala extra time plus penalties to prevail past the Canadians, 6-5.

Against the U.S., Guatemala certainly hopes that forward Oscar Santis can replicate the success he had in the quarters, attributing to him being named to the Best XI of the quarterfinals. Santis finished with an assist and hit a penalty that led to the nation’s first berth into the semis in almost 30 years. It appears Fanduel thinks Santis is also a threat, having him listed as +440 to register an assist or a goal in the match.

At +551, Fanduel’s four-leg same game parlay looks extremely attractive, but we’d argue unlikely. It backs the U.S. to win (yes), lead at the half (yes) but with a final scoreline of over 3.5 goals and wanting both teams to score, it’s a dicey one in our opinion.

But again, it’s not an exact science.

What we feel confident about is a combination of either Patrick Agyemang (-125) or Malik Tillman (+140) to get on the score sheet. Also at +135, a winning score combination of the U.S. to win by either 1-0, 2-0 or even 3-0, feels like a safe play, especially with the confidence Freese is coming into Wednesday’s match with.

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Prediction

Coming off that win over Costa Rica, it feels like a collision course to Sunday’s Gold Cup final. The U.S. men’s national team hasn’t lost to Guatemala in this tournament and this isn’t shaping up to look like the year that it does happen. Back the U.S. to win 2-0 and push through to face Mexico in Sunday’s winner-take-all affair.