The NFL has just about wrapped up Week 5, and we are starting to see some separation at the top of the standings. The Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs added more statement wins to their performances thus far. The Rams went into Seattle and beat a still dangerous Seahawks squad. Meanwhile, the Chiefs hosted the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Patrick Mahomes passed his toughest test to date. The New Orleans Saints host Washington on Monday Night Football to wrap up Week 5.
The Vig: Winners and losers from Week 5 of the 2018 NFL season
It was a wild week for the Panthers, and Dolphins backers got a stomach punch late.
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Every week will bring its share of wild games, unexpected results, and plenty of money changing hands. Sports gambling is not new, but the Supreme Court’s decision allowing states to legalize it opens the door for a huge expansion. And so, it’s time to keep an eye on the important news, the gut-wrenching news, the quirky news, and how we can best help you make a few bucks each week. Welcome to The Vig!
Bad Beat of the Week
The only thing worse than a bad beat is a bad beat that comes following an excruciating collapse by the team you backed. Hello, Dolphins bettors!
The Cincinnati Bengals win over the Miami Dolphins featured a big comeback from a 17-point deficit, and a wild finish that screwed Dolphins bettors with the 6.5 point number. Trailing 17-0, Cincinnati began their march back late in the third quarter. After a Randy Bullock field goal, Joe Mixon scored a touchdown to cut the Dolphins lead to 17-10. Michael Johnson ran back an interception to even the game at 17.
Miami could do nothing with the ball, and Cincinnati marched down the field to set up 1st and goal at the 10. The Dolphins defense stiffened up and held the Bengals to a field goal with 3:30 to go in the fourth quarter, giving Cincinnati backers a chance to take a breath. However, on the third play of the ensuing Dolphins drive, Ryan Tannehill was strip-sacked, and Bengals linebacker Sam Hubbard picked the ball up and ran it 19 yards for the touchdown. It solidified the win for Cincinnati, and cost Dolphins bettors who a half earlier thought the 6.5-point spread was there’s for the taking. Welp.
Survivors barely survive
If you are taking part in a Survivor pool and did not get knocked out when the Buffalo Bills beat the Minnesota Vikings, you might have survived a heart attack in Week 5. The Carolina Panthers beating the New York Giants was the second most popular Survivor pick this week behind the New England Patriots beating the Indianapolis Colts. If you picked the Panthers and turned the game off in disgust after the Giants go-ahead touchdown with 1:08 left in the game, you missed this wild ending. The Panthers failed to cover, but if you picked them in Survivor, congrats!
They can’t set the Falcons-Bucs point total high enough
Last week, I talked about the need for oddsmakers to adjust point totals for the Atlanta Falcons, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There are quite a few bad defenses out there, but those three teams have been consistently awful keeping opponents off the board.
The Falcons and Steelers got us another over on the point total, although ironically enough, it was a Steelers defensive touchdown that put the score over the point total. But this game marked the eighth time in ten games this season the two teams have gone over.
This sets us up for a fun Week 6. The Falcons host the Buccaneers and the Steelers travel to face the Bengals. I could see the Steelers-Bengals game getting rough, but both teams are putting up huge point totals. I’m a lot more confident in the Falcons-Bucs game, with an atrocious Bucs defense, and an injury-riddled Falcons defense. They can’t set that point total high enough!
Futures assessment
If your Super Bowl wager is on anybody but the Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City Chiefs, and maybe the New England Patriots, is there much value remaining? Those three teams entered the week with the top three Super Bowl odds. The Rams went in and held off a feisty Seattle Seahawks squad, the Chiefs dominated the stout Jacksonville Jaguars defense, and the Patriots had little real trouble with the Indianapolis Colts.
When Super Bowl odds are updated, those three will remain up top. Looks for the disparity with the next set of teams to grow. The Jaguars will drop, and we are still waiting for the New Orleans Saints to play on Monday Night Football. Of course, if MNF goes the way I think it might, the Saints’ odds will likely get worse. Speaking of which....
Monday Night Football pick
Washington at New Orleans Saints (-6): This matchup of first place teams provides reason to go against what might seem logical at first glance. The Saints have own nine of their last ten at home, and Drew Brees generally seems to be highly productive indoors. However, the Saints are 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games, and they’re facing a solid Washington defense. Add in Alex Smith offering a safe option at quarterback, and this should be a close game. I’m taking the points with Washington.
Looking ahead to Week 6
The first lines for Week 6 have arrived by way of OddsShark, and change is already afoot as this is published. The biggest early line movement is in the 49ers-Packers Monday Night Football game. The Packers opened as a 7.5 point favorite, but the line has quickly ballooned as high as 11 points.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (+3)
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings (-10.5)
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans (-10)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Carolina Panthers @ Washington (Pick ‘em)
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets (-3)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns (+1.5)
Chicago Bears @ Miami Dolphins (+3)
Seattle Seahawks @ Oakland Raiders (+3)
Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos (+7)
Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans (+2)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Dallas Cowboys (+1)
Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots (-3.5)
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (-11)
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