The Vig: Winners and losers from Week 2 of the 2018 NFL season

The second Sunday of the 2018 season is officially a wrap. The Cleveland Browns continue to break the hearts of their fans, the New York Giants offense is a dumpster fire, and we had our second tie in as many weeks!

The Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears close out the second week of the season on Monday Night Football, but, for the time being, NFL gamblers can take a deep breath after a wild Week 2 Sunday that left favorite bettors looking for the license plate on the truck that ran them over.

Every week will bring its share of wild games, unexpected results, and plenty of money changing hands. Sports gambling is not new, but the Supreme Court’s decision allowing states to legalize it opens the door for a huge expansion. And so, it’s time to keep an eye on the important news, the gut-wrenching news, the quirky news, and how we can best help you make a few bucks each week. Welcome to The Vig!

The Cleveland Browns dropped to 0-1-1 with a gut-wrenching loss to the New Orleans Saints. For the second straight week, Zane Gonzalez missed what seemed like a relatively straight forward kick that would have won the game. In Week 1, he missed a 43-yard field goal in overtime and the game ended in a tie. In Week 2, the Browns scored a touchdown with 1:16 to go to tie the game at 18, only to have Gonzalez miss the extra point. The Saints kicked a field goal to take a 21-18 lead, and Gonzalez missed a 52-yard field goal with eight seconds left.

These games have been heart-breaking for the Browns, but they offer inspiration for gamblers. Cleveland is 0-1-1 straight up, but now 2-0 against the spread. They host the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football this week, and are three point favorites. If they can cover a third straight week, they will get their first win since 2016!

Most weeks, there is one game that jumps out as a stomach punch to gamblers. Maybe you have an six-point spread, and a late score has no bearing on the final winner and loser, but gets the back-door cover. Or maybe you’ve bet the under on a point total and a meaningless late field goal sends it over. It happens with regularity.

We did not get anything quite like that this week, but let’s use this section to talk about the bloodbath that of Week 2 favorites. In 14 games on Sunday, favorites were 7-6-1 straight up, but only 4-10 against the spread. For those of us that hit the favorites a little heavy, we took one on the chin in a big way.

This week it’s the Indianapolis Colts with the big outright win. The Colts went into Washington as a six-point underdog and handled Alex Smith and Co. from start to finish. They led wire-to-wire, winning 21-9, and their defense did a great job holding off Washington after Andrew Luck’s two interceptions.

Coming off a decent showing against Cincinnati, this Colts team could be a tough one each week. They face a difficult stretch coming up, with three road games in the next four weeks, including matchups at Philadelphia and at New England. We’ll find out in a hurry just where Indianapolis stands.

On June 26, Bovada opened betting on MVP odds for the 2018 NFL season. Aaron Rodgers (13/2), Tom Brady (7/1), and Carson Wentz (19/2) led the way. Far down the list with 55/1 odds was Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He looked good in his one game debut at the end of the 2017 season, and while optimism was high in Kansas City, most of us took a wait and see approach.

Well, if you got in on the 55/1 odds, or you invested a double-digit round fantasy football draft pick on Mahomes, you’ve got a big grin on your face. Odds improved to 33/1 a couple days before the regular season began, but after just two weeks, Mahomes has to be the favorite. The Chiefs QB threw six touchdown passes against the Pittsburgh Steelers, to give him a record 10 through the first two games of the season.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is offering some competition right behind Mahomes, but Jameis Winston is likely to re-take the starting quarterback job once he returns from suspension. In Kansas City, Mahomes is the guy in KC and he’s looking like the best quarterback in the game right now. It’s only been two weeks, but those 55/1 tickets are not looking too bad right now.

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-4.5): Sunday was a day for underdogs, but I just can’t get behind the Seahawks on this one. Given the struggles of Seattle’s offensive line, Khalil Mack and the Bears defensive front could have a field day on Monday. I am more inclined to take the under on the point total (43), but for a basic pick, I think the Bears defense suffocates the Seahawks offense.

The first lines for Week 3 have arrived by way of OddsShark, and as always there will be plenty of changes between now and Sunday. There are lines for Colts-Eagles and Titans-Jaguars at a few sportsbooks, but most are awaiting injury updates before opening a line. Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz is expected to return this week, but that has not been formally confirmed. Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota was a late scratch for Week 2, so his status needs to be updated as well.

We have our first two touchdown or more line of the young season as the Vikings are a ridiculous 16.5 point home favorite against the Bills. Buffalo has a road game the next week against the Green Bay Packers and a Week 16 road game against the New England Patriots. Those might be the only games this season that have a chance to exceed this monstrous spread.

Each week, a look-ahead line for the following week is released a couple days before the regular line comes out. This provides some insight into initial thoughts on the line versus where the line ends up opening. The biggest difference thus far for Week 3 is 49ers-Chiefs. The lookahead line was at four points, and following Sunday’s action it is at six, with some sportsbooks going to seven. The Chiefs offense is putting on a show through two weeks, while the 49ers barely held off the Lions in the fourth quarter of Week 2. It’s safe to say we will see a ton of money on the Chiefs this week.

These Week 2 lines will change, as soon as publishing time, but we’ll keep an eye on them through the week.

New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns (-3)
Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings (-16.5)
New York Giants @ Houston Texans (-3.5)
San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6)
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Green Bay Packers @ Washington (+3)
Indianapolis Colts @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6)
Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (-5)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers (-3)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)
New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions (+6.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)