Serena Williams is breaking tennis.
2013 Wimbledon championships: Advanced Baseline women’s forecast
The Serena train doesn’t show any sign of stopping any time soon. Tournament forecasts, draw analysis, and favorite bets in this year’s Wimbledon preview. The men’s forecast is here.
Susan Mullane-US PRESSWIRE
Williams’ first-round loss at the 2012 French Open should have been the beginning of the end, where she had nothing left to prove anyway and we could all start reflecting on her legacy. Instead, she decided to win three Slams, an Olympic gold medal, and eight more tournaments for good measure, all at 31 years old. If there was a sign that the freight train was slowing down, it would’ve been during the clay season on her worst surface; but nope, she lost all of three sets this year on clay. And now she’s headed to Wimbledon, which is played on her best surface.
It’s not quite Nadal-on-clay levels of foregone conclusion, but this is the most one-sided a women’s draw has been at a major for a while. If Advanced Baseline ever tries to incorporate the effects of age-based decline, she will probably break the curve all by herself.
While the outcome might be all but decided, there are plenty of other interesting players and story lines to watch for besides who gets to be the sacrificial lamb in the finals. If you want a sneak preview for who will carry the American flag when (if???) Serena declines and retires, this is a great time to start: The kids are starting to come into their own right about now.
Year in Review: Tracking the Top Four
Below is a 52-week tracking graph of the grass-adjusted AB ranks of the top four seeds from last year’s Wimbledon until now. It’s a quick way to see what’s changed at the top of the ladder, and how it might cause things to be different this year.
See that momentary speed bump for Serena back in May? That came from a single close match against Anabel Medina-Garrigues in Madrid. You can only drop that much from a close win when your performance is amazingly high, and anything short of near-perfect is considered a downgrade. And not only did Serena recover just fine, she still managed to kick it into an even higher level. Please don’t break my ratings system in its first year, Serena.
The gulf between Serena and Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka is nearly as big as the gap between those two and the next tier (names like Na Li and Ana Ivanovic are right there with Agnieszka Radwanska). I would say there are interesting trends to look at with the rest of the field, but that giant gap at the top makes it hard to notice anything else.
The Forecast and Draw Analysis
Generated from simulating the tournament 100,000 before the tournament began, using win probabilities from AB ratings. Full explanation for calculating luck of the draw can be found here.
Forecast
As mentioned in the French Open preview, it’s really hard to be more likely to win seven consecutive games than not. It’s even harder in a best-of-three format, where good players have a better chance of getting unlucky in the short term and ending their tournament early. Serena is over the 50 percent threshold, which is pretty absurd. Outside of the main event, Kaia Kanepi, Simona Halep, and Jamie Hampton (WAR DAMN WIMBLEDON, Y’ALL) are the unseeded players best positioned to make a deep run. Hampton has a tough first-round draw in Sloane Stephens, but if she wins the opener, she’ll have about a one-in-five chance of a quarterfinals appearance.
Draw Analysis
For the second straight Slam, the top three all benefitted from the draw, with Serena being the biggest winner. That just seems unfair. American mainstay Varvara Lepchenko got something like a 50 percent boost to her output from the draw, and Andrea Petkovic has much more favorable conditions to make her comeback run than she did at the French Open.
Sabine Lisicki and Angelique Kerber are the ones bearing most of the load from the top three’s lucky draw. Kerber has an awful 1-2 gauntlet of Google-powered Bethanie Mattek-Sands and AB top 20 player Kaia Kanepi, and Lisicki will probably be an underdog in rounds two through four despite being in the AB top 25. And poor Sloane Stephens got half her expected points taken away by drawing Jamie Hampton in round one.
Full forecast and draw analysis points below:
| Player | 2nd Round | 3rd Round | 4th Round | Quarterfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Winner | Expected Points | Change in Expected Points from Draw |
| Serena Williams | 99.1% | 96.5% | 94.4% | 86.3% | 80.4% | 72.5% | 52.6% | 1386.5 | 82.0 |
| Maria Sharapova | 95.4% | 91.4% | 84.0% | 75.4% | 64.5% | 41.3% | 18.7% | 875.3 | 40.4 |
| Victoria Azarenka | 97.9% | 91.9% | 87.1% | 76.9% | 64.7% | 39.1% | 17.7% | 864.6 | 16.9 |
| Agnieszka Radwanska | 88.4% | 80.4% | 65.0% | 47.7% | 30.6% | 7.2% | 2.3% | 384.3 | 7.3 |
| Na Li | 90.7% | 61.5% | 45.8% | 32.8% | 19.6% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 273.1 | 1.0 |
| Sara Errani | 84.4% | 73.9% | 59.7% | 34.7% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 244.7 | 32.5 |
| Nadezda Petrova | 83.1% | 67.2% | 47.8% | 23.1% | 11.8% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 209.6 | 53.9 |
| Roberta Vinci | 76.8% | 65.6% | 44.9% | 22.7% | 11.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 199.8 | 17.2 |
| Ana Ivanovic | 78.7% | 61.6% | 46.6% | 26.3% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 198.0 | -3.7 |
| Ekaterina Makarova | 86.6% | 64.0% | 37.3% | 23.8% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 186.1 | 33.8 |
| Caroline Wozniacki | 87.7% | 63.4% | 37.9% | 23.1% | 6.9% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 183.9 | -20.4 |
| Petra Kvitova | 87.7% | 61.4% | 35.8% | 22.0% | 6.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 174.4 | -29.7 |
| Angelique Kerber | 74.6% | 47.6% | 36.5% | 26.0% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 172.7 | -83.5 |
| Marion Bartoli | 86.5% | 66.0% | 50.9% | 11.5% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 171.3 | 24.7 |
| Samantha Stosur | 88.6% | 80.1% | 49.4% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 164.2 | -31.8 |
| Maria Kirilenko | 68.6% | 47.1% | 33.1% | 18.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 133.1 | -35.5 |
| Dominika Cibulkova | 80.5% | 57.1% | 29.6% | 11.3% | 4.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 130.1 | 23.8 |
| Kaia Kanepi | 90.8% | 41.3% | 27.7% | 16.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 129.9 | 23.5 |
| Simona Halep | 81.4% | 33.6% | 22.0% | 12.8% | 6.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 125.1 | 12.9 |
| Jelena Jankovic | 82.1% | 52.8% | 32.3% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 121.7 | -7.9 |
| Kirsten Flipkens | 75.9% | 55.4% | 31.3% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 117.0 | -4.8 |
| Jamie Hampton | 63.1% | 40.4% | 22.7% | 13.8% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 115.2 | -9.9 |
| Elena Vesnina | 82.2% | 52.5% | 28.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 108.3 | -26.5 |
| Daniela Hantuchova | 61.3% | 47.3% | 18.4% | 10.1% | 4.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 106.8 | 16.6 |
| C. Suarez Navarro | 66.8% | 47.8% | 21.9% | 8.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 98.9 | 7.1 |
| Andrea Petkovic | 85.7% | 38.7% | 17.6% | 9.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 98.5 | 12.6 |
| Lucie Safarova | 74.0% | 56.7% | 9.4% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 90.9 | -4.0 |
| Magdalena Rybarikova | 65.5% | 38.4% | 17.8% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 88.4 | 19.5 |
| Varvara Lepchenko | 77.9% | 48.0% | 16.1% | 4.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 85.6 | 29.6 |
| Julia Goerges | 71.5% | 29.9% | 16.8% | 6.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 78.0 | 12.8 |
| Garbine Muguruza | 84.7% | 30.1% | 11.4% | 4.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 76.1 | 16.2 |
| Yaroslava Shvedova | 68.6% | 27.6% | 11.5% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 71.2 | 1.2 |
| Sabine Lisicki | 68.4% | 32.5% | 15.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 69.7 | -49.2 |
| Camila Giorgi | 83.9% | 37.6% | 11.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 69.1 | 35.0 |
| Yanina Wickmayer | 61.7% | 28.7% | 14.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 66.5 | 1.0 |
| Petra Cetkovska | 66.2% | 25.0% | 10.3% | 4.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 66.3 | -0.8 |
| Mona Barthel | 53.6% | 30.4% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 64.5 | -12.8 |
| Romina Oprandi | 57.3% | 31.1% | 10.4% | 5.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 64.5 | -8.6 |
| Su-wei Hsieh | 76.6% | 42.7% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 63.5 | 20.7 |
| Urszula Radwanska | 59.3% | 31.0% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 62.9 | 4.0 |
| Madison Keys | 58.7% | 27.9% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 62.2 | 4.6 |
| Shuai Peng | 53.4% | 29.2% | 12.1% | 4.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 61.9 | -10.8 |
| Marina Erakovic | 56.9% | 28.5% | 11.7% | 4.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 61.7 | 8.3 |
| Petra Martic | 73.5% | 21.2% | 8.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 58.2 | 17.7 |
| Sorana Cirstea | 52.6% | 32.1% | 11.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 57.6 | 1.6 |
| Christina McHale | 62.4% | 20.5% | 12.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 57.1 | 9.9 |
| Galina Voskoboeva | 62.0% | 19.4% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 56.2 | 7.4 |
| Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | 51.2% | 24.3% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 55.7 | -11.1 |
| Klara Zakopalova | 38.7% | 27.5% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 54.2 | -16.3 |
| Lesya Tsurenko | 56.4% | 27.3% | 8.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 53.2 | 17.9 |
| Monica Niculescu | 46.4% | 24.4% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 52.2 | -2.7 |
| Annika Beck | 72.9% | 21.7% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 51.9 | 15.4 |
| A. Medina Garrigues | 46.6% | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 51.3 | 1.9 |
| Tsvetana Pironkova | 48.8% | 22.1% | 7.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.9 | 2.2 |
| Tamira Paszek | 64.6% | 35.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.6 | 7.3 |
| Ajla Tomljanovic | 58.5% | 21.3% | 8.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 50.5 | 4.9 |
| Stefanie Voegele | 47.5% | 28.3% | 9.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.2 | 11.2 |
| Sloane Stephens | 36.9% | 19.3% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 49.6 | -46.8 |
| Alize Cornet | 56.4% | 30.1% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 48.5 | 0.1 |
| Irina-Camelia Begu | 51.8% | 18.4% | 6.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 46.1 | 6.5 |
| K. Date-Krumm | 56.1% | 30.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 45.3 | 10.1 |
| Laura Robson | 31.4% | 16.6% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 44.4 | -12.0 |
| Alison Riske | 42.7% | 20.2% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 43.6 | -3.5 |
| Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor | 48.2% | 17.4% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 43.2 | 4.7 |
| Ayumi Morita | 43.1% | 18.9% | 6.5% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 43.1 | 0.3 |
| Sofia Arvidsson | 49.5% | 17.2% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 41.4 | 7.4 |
| M. Lucic-Baroni | 50.5% | 16.8% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 41.4 | 6.8 |
| Heather Watson | 41.3% | 17.3% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.8 | -4.1 |
| Mallory Burdette | 40.7% | 17.8% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 39.9 | -3.3 |
| Kristyna Pliskova | 55.7% | 11.5% | 3.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 39.7 | 9.4 |
| L. Arruabarrena-Vecino | 43.6% | 17.9% | 4.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 38.7 | 9.1 |
| Lucie Hradecka | 53.5% | 16.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 38.0 | 6.8 |
| Flavia Pennetta | 57.8% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 37.9 | -11.5 |
| L. Dominguez-Lino | 33.3% | 18.2% | 5.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 37.6 | -1.4 |
| Mathilde Johansson | 57.0% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 37.4 | 6.4 |
| Vania King | 43.6% | 20.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 37.1 | 3.4 |
| Vesna Dolonts | 38.3% | 13.5% | 5.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 36.7 | -8.0 |
| B. Zahlavova Strycova | 34.5% | 15.2% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 36.5 | -3.2 |
| Misaki Doi | 50.6% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 36.0 | 8.8 |
| Jie Zheng | 63.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 35.9 | -8.5 |
| Carina Witthoeft | 43.9% | 20.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 35.4 | 6.3 |
| Olga Puchkova | 57.9% | 8.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 35.3 | 9.5 |
| S. Soler-Espinosa | 49.4% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 35.1 | 8.3 |
| B. Mattek-Sands | 25.4% | 10.3% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 34.5 | -25.7 |
| Bojana Jovanovski | 41.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 34.4 | -0.6 |
| Chanelle Scheepers | 23.2% | 14.8% | 6.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 34.0 | -7.6 |
| Karin Knapp | 46.5% | 13.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.7 | 5.1 |
| Melanie Oudin | 53.1% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.0 | -2.8 |
| Jana Cepelova | 44.3% | 8.1% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 31.7 | 5.9 |
| Eugenie Bouchard | 38.1% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 31.4 | -2.7 |
| Alexa Glatch | 37.6% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 31.2 | -0.5 |
| M. Larcher De Brito | 46.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29.7 | -3.6 |
| Timea Babos | 43.0% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29.5 | 3.4 |
| Donna Vekic | 33.8% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29.4 | -8.5 |
| Alexandra Cadantu | 35.4% | 14.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29.3 | 4.7 |
| Virginie Razzano | 21.3% | 10.4% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29.3 | -12.6 |
| Elena Baltacha | 42.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29.0 | -10.1 |
| Francesca Schiavone | 31.6% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29.0 | -17.3 |
| Kiki Bertens | 31.4% | 7.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 28.4 | -9.5 |
| Yulia Putintseva | 24.1% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.8 | -8.8 |
| Lauren Davis | 26.0% | 14.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.6 | -5.8 |
| Arantxa Rus | 42.1% | 5.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.5 | 5.2 |
| M. Duque-Marino | 28.5% | 6.5% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 26.0 | -6.0 |
| Monica Puig | 15.6% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.3 | -7.6 |
| Caroline Garcia | 36.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 23.6 | -6.3 |
| Karolina Pliskova | 16.9% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 23.3 | -7.7 |
| Maria-Elena Camerin | 19.5% | 7.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 22.0 | -5.1 |
| Eva Birnerova | 22.1% | 6.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.9 | 1.0 |
| Anna Tatishvili | 26.5% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.8 | 0.2 |
| Tatjana Maria | 23.4% | 6.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.7 | 1.4 |
| Nina Bratchikova | 27.1% | 3.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.4 | 0.8 |
| Yvonne Meusburger | 11.6% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.1 | -14.5 |
| Johanna Konta | 17.9% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.0 | -9.1 |
| Andrea Hlavackova | 17.8% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 19.9 | -14.7 |
| Olga Govortsova | 18.6% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 19.2 | -13.1 |
| Elina Svitolina | 13.5% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.6 | -7.4 |
| Johanna Larsson | 13.4% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.9 | -10.6 |
| K. Anna Schmiedlova | 11.4% | 6.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.9 | -9.6 |
| E. Cabeza-Candela | 12.3% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.8 | -10.0 |
| Samantha Murray | 16.1% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.7 | 1.7 |
| Coco Vandeweghe | 12.3% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.6 | -9.6 |
| Anne Keothavong | 15.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.3 | -2.6 |
| Pauline Parmentier | 14.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.1 | -5.8 |
| Michaella Krajicek | 9.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.9 | -12.2 |
| Kristina Mladenovic | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.4 | -23.1 |
| Tara Moore | 9.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.8 | -6.1 |
| M. Joao Koehler | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.2 | -9.8 |
| Mandy Minella | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.5 | -10.4 |
Favorite Bets
First-round matchups:
Angelique Kerber (-225) vs. Bethanie Mattek-Sands
Stefanie Voegele (+150) vs. Sorana Cirstea
Vania King (+225) vs. Alize Cornet
Futures bets:
Maria Sharapova (6-1) to win outright
Victoria Azarenka (7-1) to win outright
Final Thoughts
The outlook for this year’s Wimbledon makes me wonder how we would’ve viewed Serena if grass was as common a surface in tennis as clay. Nadal’s eight French Opens are an amazing feat in itself, and I’ve always wondered how much of his clay dominance has been due to natural ability versus accumulated clay experience in the regular season.
If Serena grew up playing a lot of grass matches, could she have had a Nadal-like reign at Wimbledon? (Then again, who’s to say that Venus wouldn’t have gotten in her way. In this hypothetical, I’m sure she’d be playing right alongside Serena this entire time.) It’s one of the quirks of having a Grand Slam that’s played on a surface that’s rare on the regular circuit, and it leaves plenty of room for a lot of what-ifs.
Back in reality, though, Serena is still an amazing 50+% to win Wimbledon this year. I’d love to be the one coming in with a contrarian pick, but nothing she’s done in the past year remotely supports that proposition.
See More:
