Previewing and predicting the US Open women’s semifinals

The women’s singles semifinals are set for Thursday evening at the US Open. The field has been narrowed down to four players: No. 14 Madison Keys, No. 17 Serena Williams, No. 19 Anastasija Sevastova, and No. 20 Naomi Osaka.

Williams will be facing Sevastova, beginning no earlier than 7 p.m. ET from Arthur Ashe Stadium, to be broadcast by ESPN (live streaming via WatchESPN). Following that match, Keys will face Osaka — they’re going second because they both played on Wednesday, while Williams and Sevastova played on Tuesday.

All four women have been impressive, and we’re going to take a look at both matches below.

Williams has never faced Sevastova in singles play before, so right off the bat there’s some intrigue. Sevastova is coming off the most impressive win of the tournament, an upset over the third-seeded Sloane Stephens. That win, in the quarterfinals, made her the first Latvian woman to ever make the US Open semifinals.

But getting past Williams is one of, if not the toughest thing to do in tennis. Her reserves are so deep that the pace and direction of a match involving her can turn on a dime. Sevastova, more than anything, needs to come out strong with an early lead, and hope she can hold off Williams’ inevitable late charge. Provided it gets that far, and that Williams doesn’t dominate from the onset.

Doing that will be tough, though, as Sevastova’s US Open has been ridiculously impressive. She made it through Donna Vekic, Claire Liu and Ekaterina Makarova in the first three rounds before besting the seventh-seeded Elina Svitolina in the Round of 16, 6-3, 1-6, 6-0. She then dispatched with Stephens, the heavy favorite, in straight sets, 6-2, 6-3.

Williams’ run through the tournament has also been impressive, with wins over Magda Linette and Carina Witthoeft in the opening two rounds, followed by a dominant straight-set victory over her sister and 16th seed, Venus Williams. She then faced Kaia Kanepi, the unseeded player who took down Simona Halep, the top seed, in the opening round. Williams was pushed to three sets in that one but got the win. Most recently, she took down the eighth-seeded Karolina Pliskova in straight sets in her quarterfinal match.

Williams, of course, is the bigger name, and is two wins away from a record 24th Grand Slam title. She’s about a year removed from the birth of her daughter, Alexis Olympia, and has looked in fine form throughout the tournament.

Prediction: Williams in straight sets

This isn’t the first time Keys has made it to the semifinals at the US Open — she made it to the final a year ago. She’s also appeared in the semifinals at the Australian Open and French Open, with the quarterfinals being her best finish at Wimbledon. For Osaka, it’s her first appearance in any Grand Slam semifinal, so Keys has that edge going for her.

Keys and Osaka have faced each other twice before, both times on hard courts, and both won by Keys. The first was at the US Open in 2016, when Keys won in three sets, 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(3). The second was at Indian Wells in 2017, with Keys finishing off Osaka much quicker, 6-1, 6-4.

Personally, I don’t see nerves being a big issue for Osaka at this point. She’s further than she’s ever been, sure, but she has plenty of experience against top players and has looked so sharp in New York this tournament. This could easily wind up being one of the best matchups of the tournament.

Keys’ run through the US Open includes wins over Pauline Parmentier, Bernarda Pera, Aleksandra Krunic, Dominika Cibulkova and, most recently, Carla Suarez Navarro in the quarterfinals. All but one of those wins (vs. Krunic) were finished within two sets.

Osaka has beaten Laura Siegemund, Julia Glushko, Aliaksandra Sasnovich, the extremely tough Aryna Sabalenka and, most recently, the unseeded Lesia Tsurenko in the quarterfinals. She only gave up two games to Tsurenko, so nerves were certainly not an issue there.

This will be a close one. Osaka has looked completely dominant, but Keys has also responded well to any adversity she’s faced. No result would be surprising here.

Prediction: Keys in three sets