While it’s very early to be making sweeping decisions about WNBA MVP candidates, there are a few players who have separated themselves in the larger conversations around the league. Napheesa Collier, Allisha Gray, and Caitlin Clark seem to be the names floating around most frequently amongst fans and media as the current top picks, which is backed up by all three being in the top six in betting odds.
The WNBA MVP has a clear favorite, according to stats and odds
Let’s compare the stats between three MVP candidates to determine who is most deserving of the league’s highest honor so far.
Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images
Chelsea Leite has been writing about professional basketball since 2021, and covers both the Toronto Raptors and Toronto Tempo as a credentialed reporter for SB Nation.
According to Fanduel, Collier (-340) is the current favorite, while Clark (+280) has the second-best odds, followed by Breanna Stewart of the Liberty (+5,000) and a three-way tie between Gray, Mercury star Alyssa Thomas and reigning winner A’ja Wilson of the Las Vegas Aces (+7,500).
There are so many things that voters can think about when making their MVP choice. Statistics are a tool to inform decisions, but they should not be the only factor that determines awards. Often, some of these deep-dive statistics can be used as tiebreakers if a voter is struggling to choose between two or three candidates.
As an exercise, let’s take a look at the statistics of Collier, Clark and Gray side-by-side, (all numbers via Her Hoop Stats):
MVP Candidate Statistics
Stats | Napheesa Collier | Caitlin Clark | Allisha Gray |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team record | 11-1 | 6-6 | 8-4 |
| Games played | 11 | 7 | 12 |
| Points per game | 24.4 | 19.9 | 20.4 |
| Rebounds per game | 8.5 | 5.7 | 5.4 |
| Assists per game | 3.6 | 8.7 | 4.5 |
| Field Goal % | 52.40% | 41.70% | 50.60% |
| Field Goals Attempted per game | 17.2 | 15.4 | 13 |
| Field Goals Made per game | 9 | 6.4 | 6.6 |
| Three-Point % | 42.10% | 35.50% | 42.30% |
| Three-Pointers Attempted per game | 3.5 | 8.9 | 5.9 |
| Three-Pointers Made per game | 1.5 | 3.1 | 2.5 |
| Free Throw % | 93.10% | 79.40% | 81.40% |
| Steals per game | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Blocks per game | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 |
| Usage Rate % | 29.80% | 28.80% | 21.90% |
| Offensive Rating | 121.6 | 101.3 | 133.6 |
| Defensive Rating | 90.8 | 94.3 | 97.4 |
| Win Shares | 2.9 | 0.9 | 2.9 |
A few things pop out from this chart. The Minnesota Lynx have the best record not only among these three players but in the entire league, which is something that carries a lot of weight in the MVP conversation. Unless the Lynx experience a rough patch, they will likely stay in the Top-2 of the league standings all year, giving Collier an edge over her Fever and Dream counterparts.
Going down to actual player stats, Collier also leads in both points per game (24.4) and rebounds per game (8.5) — which makes sense, given her size and position as a forward. She’s a full 4 points per game ahead of Gray and 4.5 ahead of Clark. Clark takes the top spot for assists, though, which also makes sense due to her elite playmaking ability and position as her team’s primary point guard.
Collier again takes the top spot in the three field goal categories — attempted, made, and percentage — showing off her ability to score efficiently. Gray’s field goal percentage is not too far off from Collier’s, but Clark’s drops off due to her high-volume shooting style. That’s not a bad thing, it’s just the way Clark plays. It’s why she has both the highest three-pointers attempted and made numbers — take more shots, make more shots. Collier then has the highest free-throw percentage by a wide margin. It’s Gray, though, who shoots from distance with the most accuracy, just barely edging Collier out (42.3% compared to Collier’s 42.1%).
Calculating each player’s True Shooting percentage, which comes from dividing their points per scoring attempt by 2, Gray has the upper hand. True shooting is used as a way to see a player’s shooting stats when you account for the added value of three-point shots. Gray leads this stat here with 65% true shooting on the season, Collier is at 63%, and Clark has a true shooting percentage of 56.5% so far.
When it comes to the traditionally defensive stats, steals and blocks per game, Collier again comes out on top. The blocks again are not surprising, given she has the size advantage over both Gray and Clark, but her ability to get 1.8 steals per game is impressive. Gray commits the fewest turnovers per game of the three, only giving the ball up 1.5 times per game compared to Collier’s 2.3 and Clark’s 5.3 (something she leads the league in).
From there, we dive into Her Hoop Stats’ more unique statistical categories. Usage rate measures the percentage of plays while a player is on the floor that they use to shoot, get to the line, or commit a turnover, a category which Collier leads with a score of 29.8%. Offensive and defensive ratings are commonly used statistics in basketball to measure the points scored and allowed per 100 possessions when an individual player is on the court for their squad. Allisha Gray leads in offensive rating with 133.6, which also happens to be in the 100th percentile league-wide. Collier, on the other hand, leads in defensive rating, only allowing 90.8 points per 100 possessions, in the 97th percentile league-wide.
Interestingly enough, Her Hoop Stats ranks the best players in any WNBA season by Win Shares over any other category. They define this stat as “an advanced statistic that approximates the total number of wins a player produces for their team through their play on the offensive and defensive end of the court.” Both Collier and Gray lead the entire WNBA in this category with a Win Share score of 2.9, while Clark has a score of 0.9. This makes more sense given Collier and Gray have each played 10+ games, while Clark hasn’t even reached 10 yet due to sitting out with her previous injury.
Again, these stats aren’t the entire picture when it comes to MVP voting, and it’s still early enough for them to change. Collier currently leads in 11 of the categories, and ties in 1, Gray leads in 4 and ties in 1, and Clark leads in 3 categories. The conversations around MVP in the WNBA right now are leaning towards Collier, and statistically, she is leading the pack. It will be interesting to see how these numbers change at a later point in the WNBA season, but if the voting were happening today (and I had a vote, which I don’t), my MVP pick would be Napheesa Collier.
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