Paige Bueckers was expected to be great. She has been for a long time. The No. 1 pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft was unlikely to enter a winning situation in Dallas — that’s typical of No. 1 picks.
Paige Bueckers is doing something few WNBA guards have done
The Dallas Wings guard’s rookie campaign has been on another level.
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Noa Dalzell is a senior writer covering the WNBA and all of women’s basketball for Breakaway, SB Nation’s women’s sports vertical, as well as the Celtics for CelticsBlog.
But was Bueckers going to become a star immediately?
The answer has been a resounding yes. The former UConn standout has averaged 19.7 points, 5.3 assists, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.7 steals per game this season. The Dallas Wings have struggled — they have the league’s third-worst record at 9-27 — but Bueckers has been an undeniable star. She leads all rookies in points, assists, and steals. She’s shooting 47.4% from the field.
Bueckers is the 5th leading scorer in the WNBA, and third among guards, trailing only veteran guards Kelsey Plum and Kelsey Mitchell. She has the league’s 9th-best assist-to-turnover ratio (among players who have appeared in at least 25 games).
On Wednesday, she tied the WNBA record for most points in a single game by a rookie, exploding for 44 points on 17-21 shooting and 4 of 4 from beyond the arc. Before Bueckers, no WNBA player has ever taken more than 20 shots in a game and missed four or fewer.
Young WNBA guards typically struggle in their first season —even the great ones
Kelsey Plum, who was the NCAA’s all-time leading scorer when she was drafted, averaged 8.5 points on 34.6% shooting as a rookie.
Sabrina Ionescu missed most of her rookie season with an ankle sprain, but averaged 11.7 points on 37.9% shooting in her subsequent first full season.
Kelsey Mitchell, the No. 2 pick in 2018, averaged 12.7 points on 34.6% shooting in her rookie season with the Indiana Fever.
Heck, even Rhyne Howard, who averaged 16.2 points in 2022 and won Rookie of the Year, shot 36.1% from the field that year — 11% worse than Bueckers.
What Bueckers is doing isn’t normal.
Plum, Ionescu, Mitchell, and Howard are four of the WNBA’s best guards, and their rookie campaigns were incomparable to Bueckers.
The only rookie guard who has rivalled Bueckers’ production in recent years is Caitlin Clark, who averaged 19.2 points and 8.4 assists last season. Clark set the WNBA record for most assists in a single season, but Bueckers’ rookie season has been far more efficient (Clark shot 41.7% from the field compared to Bueckers’ 47.4% shooting). Under Clark’s leadership, the Indiana Fever made a late playoff push, while Bueckers’ Wings have struggled to rack up wins — but Indiana also had a more talented roster.
Whatever way you want to stack up the two stars’ rookie campaigns, both were historic.
The last year has been picture-perfect for Bueckers. She won a national championship with UConn after a tournament run that was headlined by a career-high 40 points in a Sweet 16 win against Oklahoma. A few weeks later, she was drafted No. 1 overall.
On Wednesday, she exploded for 44 points.
She remains the favorite for WNBA Rookie of the Year, though Washington Mystics guard Sonia Citron’s wildly consistent play has thrust her into the conversation. (Citron is putting together an elite rookie season of her own, averaging 15.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.1 steals, while shooting 46.6% from the field and 41.3% from three.)
But Buecker’s first professional season has been more than your average Rookie of the Year campaign — it’s been generational. Wednesday night’s offensive explosion against the Los Angeles Sparks was just the latest example.
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