Predicting the WNBA Finals outcome between Aces, Mercury

The WNBA Finals are here!

For the first time, two teams will square off in a best-of-seven series (previously, the Finals spanned five games). Those two teams are the Las Vegas Aces — who are making their third trip to the Finals in four seasons — and the Phoenix Mercury, a team that was almost entirely reassembled in the offseason.

Both teams are loaded with talent and have an MVP candidate anchoring both ends.

The Aces are headlined by the veteran trio of A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, and Chelsea Gray, while the Mercury have their own Big Three, made up of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and Kahleah Copper.

The Aces (30-14) finished with the league’s second-best record this season after winning their final 16 games of the regular season. The Mercury (27-17), meanwhile, had a more up-and-down year, and finished with the league’s fourth-best record. They also saw multiple key players miss substantial time with injury, including Copper, who missed 16 games recovering from knee surgery.

But, despite a three-game regular-season gap, the Mercury have looked like the more convincing team these playoffs; to punch their ticket to the Finals, they eliminated both of last year’s Finals teams, the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx. Their first-round best-of-three series went three games and included a resounding blowout win in Game 2 at Barclays Center, which marked the largest margin of victory (26) for a WNBA team facing elimination.

Then, in the semi-finals, the Mercury discarded the Lynx in four games, winning the last three games of the series after dropping Game 1. (One caveat: Collier missed Game 4 with an ankle injury, and DiJonai Carrington missed the series with a foot injury).

The Aces’ playoff run has been less convincing thus far; their first-round series against the Seattle Storm came down to the wire in Game 3, while it took overtime in Game 5 for the Aces to beat the shorthanded Indiana Fever. Still, they’ve managed to crawl back into contention after starting the season 14-14 and have secured homecourt advantage in the WNBA Finals.

The Aces have the best player in the series in A’ja Wilson, and they won all three regular-season matchups against the Mercury when she played. It’s been difficult for any player to slow down Wilson for multiple games (though Indiana Fever forward Aliyah Boston put together a valiant effort).

The key will be to slow down Wilson and Young, the Aces’ two leading scorers these playoffs. Wilson is averaging 26 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3 assists, 2.6 steals, and 2.8 blocks this postseason. Young is averaging 20.5 points, 5.3 assists, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.4 steals. The next most impactful Aces player has been Gray, who is averaging 10.9 points and 7.3 assists these playoffs. NaLyssa Smith, acquired midseason, has also been huge.

For the Mercury, it’s been all about their (new) Big 3. Thomas, an MVP finalist, is averaging 18.6 points, 9.1 assists, and 8.4 rebounds. Sabally, a three-time All-Star, is averaging 17.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.3 assists. Copper, just a few months removed from knee surgery, is averaging 15 points and 3.3 rebounds.

Both teams have shown an ability to win close games, and both have responded to rough stretches well. The Aces were the better regular season team, but the Mercury have seemingly meshed in the postseason. This one is a toss-up, so I predict it’ll go 7 games.

Ultimately, I pick the Mercury to win it all because they’ve been the more convincing team these playoffs. The Aces’ defensive lapses may have been surmountable against the Storm and the Fever, but the Mercury are a different beast. But for the Mercury to pull this off, they’ll have to at least somewhat contain Wilson and Young — a tall task.