2 overachievers, 2 disappointments through the first month of WNBA action

It’s difficult to project how a roster will translate from on-paper t0 on-the-court. And, through the first three weeks of the regular season, several teams have vastly exceeded external expectations, while some teams have fallen short.

Here are two surprises — and two disappointments — throughout the first two weeks of WNBA action.

The Lynx are 4-2 (tied for the second-best record in the WNBA). They’ve also outscored opponents by 6.4 points per game, the third-best net rating in the WNBA. That’s despite the fact that they lost Natisha Hiedeman, Alanna Smith, Jessica Shepard, and Bridget Carleton in the offseason, and that’s even though Napheesa Collier remains sidelined as she recovers from ankle surgeries.

Anchored by Natasha Howard, Minnesota has been elite defensively. Olivia Miles has looked like a Rookie of the Year frontrunner. Courtney Williams is averaging 15.8 points per game, the second-highest clip of her career.

Kayla McBride, the team’s third-leading scorer, has gushed about Miles’ contributions thus far as the rookie point guard.

“I think she is one of the most naturally gifted players that I’ve seen come into the league as a rookie,” McBride said, per Andrew Dukowitz.

The Fire are 4-3 and winners of back-to-back games for the first time this season. They have beaten the New York Liberty — twice — and seen big-time contributions from players like Bridget Carleton, Carla Leite, and Sarah Ashlee Barker.

As a result, the WNBA’s newest expansion team is one of the most overachieving teams through the early days. They’ve pulled out three clutch-time victories, in large part due to late-game heroics from Leite and Ashlee Barker, among others.

And, the unorthodox style of head coach Alex Sarama has been resonating — a style that includes no morning shootaround, no individual 1-on-0 skills work, and other methods that, so far, have resulted in success.

The Connecticut Sun weren’t supposed to be good this year. Still, they’ve been the worst team in the league, and it hasn’t been particularly close. They’re 1-7 on the season, and have been outscored by an average of 14.7 points, by far the worst mark in the league.

Head coach Rachid Meziane has changed lineups quite a bit – Saniya Rivers was starting at point guard to begin the season, then Hailey Van Lith, and now it’s Charlisse Leger-Walker. The Sun used a different starting lineup in each of their first 7 games this season.

“I need more time to establish my starting five, and I need to see more from my players,” Meziane said before Monday’s 97-70 loss to the Golden State Valkyries, per Winsidr reporter Madisyn Cunningham.

Aneesah Morrow has (probably) been the team’s most consistent player, but her minutes have also been inconsistent. The Sun are trying to figure out what’s working, and right now, it feels like not much is working.

The good news is that help is on the way. Leila Lacan was the team’s most impactful player last year as a rookie, and she’s yet to make her season debut. That’s expected to take place in the coming days. Still, no team has struggled as much as Connecticut in the early days.

The Phoenix Mercury were a WNBA Finals team last season who toppled a talented Lynx squad to punch their ticket to the Finals. They brought back Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper and added Jovana Nogic, a 28-year-old undrafted rookie out of Serbia who has quickly established herself as one of the best first-year players in the WNBA.

But, without Satou Sabally (now on the New York Liberty) and several other rotation players, the Mercury are 2-5, losers of three straight. As such, they have undoubtedly been one of the league’s most disappointing teams in the early days.

Kahleah Copper has been very inefficient; she’s shooting just 34.4% from the field and 15.4% from three. Alyssa Thomas is putting up Alyssa Thomas number (18 points, 8 assists, 7.9 rebounds), but it just hasn’t been enough.