The Michigan Wolverines could cause an upset come March

The Michigan Wolverines women’s basketball team has had a hot start to their season. Now at 4-0 after beating Birmingham 120-50 at home on Tuesday night, they burst onto the top-10 on the Associated Press (AP) poll this week. It’s their second-highest ranking in program history, and the first time they’ve been ranked this high since they were No. 6 in February of 2022.

And with their core consisting of a trio of sophomore talent, all of whom have improved from their freshman season, Michigan may need to get used to its top-10 ranking for the next few seasons.

Focusing on this season, AP voters are clearly seeing the improvements Michigan has made. The team started the season ranked 13th in the country, were bumped down one spot in week two, but made the biggest jump in week three, going from 14th to 6th. This came off a dominant 93-54 win over No. 24 Notre Dame last weekend, after Michigan won their first two games against Canisius and Harvard.

This team has big potential to be the cause of a late-season upset, and should be on the radar of anyone following potential Big-10 tournament favorites or NCAA tournament dark horses. This isn’t just a hot streak — it’s the result of meticulous team building, excellent recruiting, and a group of hard-working players with a lot of talent.

ESPN ranked Michigan’s 2024-25 freshman class the No. 8 best recruiting class that year. With No. 4 Syla Swords’s commitment, she became the program’s highest-ranked prospect in history, and Michigan followed that up by landing No. 20 Olivia Olson. They also brought in four-star prospect Mila Holloway, and the trio created a point-guard/shooting-guard/forward lineup that has turned out extremely well for the Wolverines.

As a sophomore, Swords already has more international basketball experience than a lot of her peers. As a high school senior, Swords played in Olympic qualifying tournaments for Team Canada, eventually making their roster for the Paris games in 2024. She became the youngest person to ever represent Canada in basketball at the Olympics, and headed into her freshman NCAA season already an Olympian. In between her freshman and sophomore seasons, Swords spent the summer back with the Canadian program under newly minted head coach Nell Fortner. She played significant minutes in both the Women’s AmeriCup tournament and the U19 World Cup, but sat out of Canada’s U23 GLOBL JAM tournament after a busy offseason.

Swords averaged 9.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.6 assists at the AmeriCup, shooting 41.9% from three-point range over the tournament — helping Canada to a Bronze medal finish. A few weeks later at the U19 World Cup, she averaged 15.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists per game, shooting 43.6% from distance — the Canadian team missing the podium in a two-point loss to Spain, coming 4th in the World.

Olivia Olson absolutely shone in her freshman season for the Wolverines. She averaged 16.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.4 steals per game, shooting 46.6% from the field and 38.3% from three-point range. Those numbers earned her the Co-Big Ten Freshman of the Year award, and along with Swords, she was selected for the All-Big Ten Second Team and Big Ten All-Freshman team.

She’s already leveled up in year two as well, leading Michigan in all four games. She is averaging 17.8 points per game this season, even as she hasn’t had to play heavy minutes. Her 16.3 points per game last year were in 30.8 minutes per game, and this year she has only played 22 minutes per game. Swords is averaging 12.3 points per game this season, shooting 47.6% from the field.

Michigan is getting plenty of opportunity to gauge its true potential during its non-conference schedule, which will come in handy when facing Big-10 opponents soon. The Wolverines’ biggest test of the entire season is coming early, as they prepare to face No. 1 UConn on their home court in Connecticut this weekend.

UConn has two of the best players in the country, fellow sophomore Sarah Strong and redshirt senior Azzi Fudd, leading their seemingly unstoppable team. If Michigan can make an impact on this powerhouse team, it will be a huge confidence booster for the Wolverines, as even just competing with UConn is a sign of formidability in women’s college basketball. On the flip side, Michigan might be the biggest challenge UConn has seen this season so far. They could also end up being one of their biggest challenges of the year.

Olson will have to find a way to get past Strong, who is averaging 3.3 steals and 2.5 blocks per contest in four games so far this season. Strong is good enough to be on a WNBA team right now, even as a college sophomore, and being able to score in spite of her will be Olson’s biggest task.

For Swords, outshooting Fudd is the goal. In Michigan’s game against Notre Dame, Swords took three quick shots from long distance in the first half, but wasn’t making them in the second half. She’s been slowly increasing her output as she’s played more games to start the season, and bringing herself up to the numbers she was shooting in the summer for Canada will bring her closer to Fudd’s current 46.2% shooting from behind the arc this season.

While this game risks Michigan’s undefeated streak, facing a team like UConn early in the season will make the Wolverines tougher. They’ll have film against the best team in the country to reference when preparing to face Big-10 rivals like UCLA and USC. Most importantly, knowing the hard-working nature of this Michigan team, along with their willingness to learn and get better after hard games, this UConn match will make them better.

It could all culminate in the Wolverines becoming a major March dark horse.