Phillies Decide Paying A 36-Year Old $25 Million Is Smart

“They just paid A-Rod money to Fred McGriff.”

That comparison, from Will Carroll, may perfectly sum-up what the Phillies did on Monday, when they extended Ryan Howard to a five-year, $125 million contract (with a team option for a sixth year).

The contract breaks down like so:

2012-13: $20m; 2014-16: $25m; 2017: $23m club option (with $10m buyout)

Howard is already making $19m this season, and is due another $20m in 2011 from his previous three-year deal. $179 million over eight years? -- not a bad gig if you can get it.

Now back Carroll’s tweet: “They just paid A-Rod money to Fred McGriff.”

While it may be a bit reactionary, it’s really not far off. With the new deal and its $25 million per year average, Howard becomes baseball’s second-highest paid player, behind ... Alex Rodriguez ($27.5 million average with the Yankees). And a quick look at Howard’s “Similar Batters through 29” section on his Baseball-Reference page offers statistical equivalents like Richie Sexon, Mo Vaughn and ... Fred McGriff.

If Phillies fans are beginning to get nervous, that is understandable. After all, Howard turns 31 this November, meaning he is older than Mark Prior, Hank Blalock and Albert Pujols. And as our Rangers blog, Lone Star Ball, reminds, he doesn’t hit lefties (.226 average, compared to .307 against RHP, and a 50 OPS+ versus a 121 OPS+), and you can’t exactly just D.H. him in the National League. Is paying a 34-36-year old $25 million per season a smart investment? (Answer: probably not.)

Even our Phillies blog, The Good Phight, timidly waded into the Howard Lagoon waters, offering only a cautiously optimistic outlook.

... only once in Howard’s career, according to Fangraphs’ WAR metric, has he been worth more than the $25 million AAV (average annual value) that this deal will pay him: his MVP season back in 2006.

And since they brought up FanGraphs, let’s go ahead and take a look at their reaction to this signing, appropriately titled, “What Are The Phillies Thinking?“

Even if you think baseball’s salary per win goes up to $4.25 million this coming offseason and rises at a 5% clip every winter through 2017, Howard will need to produce an average of 4.75 wins from 2012 through 2017 just in order to justify his salary. If you factor in that Howard gets (even more) long-term security from this deal, then that average production levels goes up to 5.3 wins.

Summed up: to justify the money he will be making, Ryan Howard, playing when he is 32-37 years old, will have to put up better seasons than his 2006 campaign. When he won the N.L. MVP.

Matthew Carruth, author of the FanGraphs post, says it all in seven words: “Say hello to baseball’s newest worst contract.”