Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, And Paying For Flash Over Value

I don’t have much to add to the conversation regarding Ryan Howard’s contract extension with the Phillies. I don’t have much to add, because it has already been covered so thoroughly, by so many people, people saying the same things and making the same damning criticisms. To be sure, the sabermetric and statistically-inclined corner of the Internet can be prone to groupthink, dogpiling and hyperbole, but it says something when intelligent coverage of the extension has been universally negative.

But I do want to take this opportunity to bring one angle to light. I’ll just get right to it, then. Statistics shown are from 2007 to the present.

It’s clear that, in a side-by-side comparison, Ryan Howard offers more power than does Jayson Werth. This doesn’t come as a surprise. Power is Howard’s primary asset, and he’s among the strongest hitters in professional baseball.

Power, though, isn’t value. At least, power isn’t the only component. A player’s value is the sum of everything he does. Hit for power. Get on base. Run the bases. Play defense. Pitch, if you’re a pitcher. And so on. And it’s through this lens that the comparison above begins to even out.

Howard’s power gives him an advantage over Werth. But Werth chips away at this advantage by doing a better job of getting on base. He also does a better job of running the bases, he plays a more important defensive position, and his actual defense is terrific. I don’t want to open the floodgates and start a whole debate over the current state of baseball’s defensive metrics, but you don’t need to get numerical to understand that Jayson Werth is one of the better defensive corner outfielders in the league, which gives him a big boost.

When you put everything together, Werth comes out looking at least as good as Howard, and quite possibly better. And though Werth is six months older, he’s also more athletic, and his player type has historically tended to age better than Howard’s. Where, with Howard, one must be wary of decline at any moment, Werth likely has a wider window.

Jayson Werth is a free agent after the 2010 season, while Ryan Howard was already under contract through 2011 before this extension even went down. Re-signing Howard does not directly prevent the Phillies from re-signing Werth, nor does it mean they still won’t. However, the extension does greatly reduce the likelihood that Werth sticks around, an unfortunate situation that, at its heart, is due to Philadelphia’s poor evaluation of its own players. They have long been blinded by Howard’s home runs and popularity, and the end result is that they’ll be paying far more for a long time to Howard than Werth will be getting in return for similar, if not superior production.

This is good news for outfield prospect Domonic Brown, who may now have a starting job all ready and waiting for him next season. It’s great news for Ryan Howard and Ryan Howard’s agent. It could and should be good for guys like Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, and Prince Fielder. But it’s bad for Philadelphia, and it’s bad for the Phillies. The Phillies have a good core of talent and one contract can’t sink a rich team on its own, but Howard is already past his peak, and his extension won’t begin for another two years.

Thumbs down to Ruben Amaro. He screwed up, and he’s going to pay for it. He’s going to pay a lot for it, for a long time.