Well that was unfortunate. Last night’s action was supposed to be epic, and instead, we got blowouts in the two best games of the night. Oh well, can’t win them all.
NBA Playoffs: Your Wednesday Night Viewing Guide
But before we get into tonight, it probably makes sense to bring up the fact that Caron Butler scored 35 points in a Mavericks season-saving win last night, seeing as I wrote about 3600 words about how he really hurt the Wizards this season (key word: this season, because that's the unit of analysis that matters in this discussion). First of all, what he did with the Wizards and what he did with Dallas really don't have a ton to do with each other, in the sense that what he does in Dallas doesn't change what he did in DC this year. But excluding that point, the Butler we saw last night was a different Butler than we saw all season. He was making quick decisions, moving without the ball and generally not settling for an isolation 20-footer. He, in essence, was the Butler of old, back when he was an all-star caliber player.
My colleague Andrew Sharp said he felt vindicated by Caron’s performance.
Listen: Caron may not be Paul Pierce, but he's not the albatross that he's been billed as the past few days. Having watched most of his career the past four years, there's no question if I was a playoff team, I'd want Caron on my side. And who's better as a second scoring option for Dallas? If he's struggling, should Caron just not shoot? What do people expect?
To answer Sharp’s rhetorical questions:
- Caron's taking more shots than Dallas' first option, so that's kind of the issue. (Oh, and Jason Terry).
- He should shoot better shots, and yes, he should probably shoot less frequently as well.
- I expect all that from him because it's what helps his team win in the playoffs, which is kind of the goal.
But more abstractly, the point is this: the Caron we saw last night is not the Caron that we’ve seen all season. We haven’t seen Caron play that smartly once this year. Kudos to him for having one great game in a big spot (seriously), but one game does not a season make. It doesn’t erase the stuff he pulled in DC, and unless he can continue to be efficient, unselfish and strong off the ball (i.e. stuff he hasn’t done all season), it won’t erase the stuff he pulled earlier in this series.
Shocking as it sounds, I like the guy. A lot of what he pulled this year in DC was in response to a lot of lingering BS that was going on around him. It doesn’t excuse his actions, but it at least makes them understandable. I’m hoping he and his team continues to play well, considering I’m rooting for them with my team out.
Okay, tangent over. Onto tonight!
Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks: Game 5, 8:00 p.m., TNT
Game 4 in one sentence: The Hawks, led by Josh Smith, played sloppily, and the Bucks controlled the game throughout to tie the series.
Problem the Hawks must solve to win: Atlanta's defense really let them down in Milwaukee. Any guesses as to Bucks' offensive efficiency (i.e. points scored/100 possessions) rating in the two games in Milwaukee? 118.9 and 124.7. The Bucks' offensive efficiency on the season was 102, and that's with Andrew Bogut around for most of the games. It's just unacceptable as a defense to give up that many points to that crappy an offensive team.
SB Nation’s Hawks blog Peachtree Hoops has a nice argument that blames the defensive woes on the Hawks’ strategy of switching every screen. It’s a good point. But the Hawks have been doing that all season, and they’ve at least been an above-average defensive team with that core philosophy. Winning Game 5 will require executing their defensive strategy better, not completely changing it.
Problem the Bucks must solve to win again: The usually-stout Bucks defense wasn't all that great in Game 4 either, as they allowed the Hawks to score 116.9 points per 100 possessions. Josh Smith, Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford each had 20+ points, but that's what they do. What isn't expected is Mike Bibby dropping 15 points and raining threes. As SB Nation's Bucks blog Brew Hoop writes:
This game marked the third time this year that Mike Bibby has rained in three triples in the first quarter alone against the Bucks. The first two times ended in losses. This time Carlos Delfino saved the day, but let's close out on Bibby. He doesn't do much of anything else. Tonight he made 5-7 from outside, 0-4 on other field goals, and 0-0 at the line.
Totally inconsequential thing I want to see happen: Some Hawks fan mocking the Bucks’ “Fear The Dear” slogan. I don’t expect this to happen, because Hawks fans that attend games aren’t really that wild, but I will prepare to be surprised.
Prediction: The Hawks get back on track at home. Hawks 105, Bucks 90.
Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets: Game 5, 10:30 p.m., TNT
Game 4 in one sentence: The Jazz weathered an early Nuggets run and took control of the game by being themselves, whereas the Nuggets reverted into their one-on-one, selfish selves.
Problem the Nuggets must solve to win: Run your best play! Hello! Adrian Dantley, you there?
Problem the Jazz must solve to win again: Carmelo Anthony had a big game in Game 4, though he did have nine turnovers and was questioned by his own team's fans. The Jazz need to do a better job of stopping him. But then again, perhaps letting Melo be the lone ranger is by design. It has shut the rest of the Nuggets out of the game.
Totally inconsequential thing I want to see happen: With the way he fouls so much, it's about time Kyrylo Fesenko got into a fight with someone.
Prediction: Denver's been so uneven and the Jazz have been so solid all series. If it weren't for J.R. Smith's fourth-quarter shooting explosion in Game 1, this series would be over. I think the Jazz end it tonight. Jazz 112, Nuggets 101.
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